Realized P&L
-$1.19K
Unrealized P&L
-$134
Hit rate
53.3%
Resolved
713
Trades
7,631
lifetime
Volume
$84.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$11
Open exposure
$605
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-25
last 10-29 22:07
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 167 days
Categories
Politics
75% 61% -$949
Other
17% 57% -$299
Tech
4% 78% -$13
Crypto
3% 58% +$2
Sports
1% 58% +$72
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 185 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -159 -$129 82¢ $-132 -$3 10-29 17:16
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No +106 $81 78¢ $82 +$2 10-29 17:16
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No +76 $62 78¢ $60 -$2 10-29 17:16
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No +80 $60 70¢ $56 -$4 10-13 16:09
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? Yes +67 $34 46¢ $31 -$3 10-16 02:34
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No +36 $26 65¢ $24 -$3 10-21 10:51
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No +25 $25 95¢ $24 -$2 10-29 17:16
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? No +19 $19 97¢ $19 $0 10-29 17:17
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +24 $20 65¢ $16 -$4 09-10 18:33
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No +16 $16 95¢ $15 $0 08-31 11:20
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +16 $14 90¢ $14 +$0 10-29 17:16
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +98 $15 12¢ $12 -$3 10-29 17:17
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +13 $24 92¢ $12 -$13 10-29 17:16
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +9 $8 99¢ $9 +$0 10-19 00:09
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +88 $6 9¢ $8 +$2 10-29 17:18
NATO dissolves before 2027? No +9 $8 97¢ $8 $0 10-29 17:17
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +8 $6 98¢ $8 +$2 10-20 15:47
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +8 $8 92¢ $8 +$0 08-18 00:19
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? No +8 $7 94¢ $8 +$0 09-10 18:33
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +179 $7 4¢ $7 $0 10-29 17:17
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No +7 $7 94¢ $7 +$0 08-02 18:32
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes +36 $11 18¢ $7 -$4 10-06 17:22
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? No +6 $6 98¢ $6 +$0 08-11 01:02
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? No +6 $6 98¢ $6 +$0 09-06 23:51
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Yes +80 $106 6¢ $5 -$101 10-27 06:30
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? No +6 $4 84¢ $5 +$1 10-03 17:49
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? No +5 $5 98¢ $5 $0 09-19 11:11
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +467 $4 1¢ $5 +$1 09-13 15:17
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +6 $4 72¢ $4 +$0 10-13 16:00
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +164 $6 3¢ $4 -$1 09-06 23:51