Phony-Constraint — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$15

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

70.3%

Resolved

1,034

Trades

2,043

lifetime

Volume

$10.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-11

last 09-11 21:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 100 days

Categories

Other

61% 56% -$110

Politics

18% 58% +$80

Sports

13% 64% +$81

Crypto

7% 80% +$21

Tech

1% 33% -$57

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes		+720	$5	0¢	$1	-$4	07-15 09:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	11	$386	279	279	+0	Yes	+$4	09-04 14:10
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?	2	$247	147	147	+0	No	+$47	08-21 15:57
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	2	$202	115	115	+0	Yes	+$2	08-31 14:48
cs2 maybe forzer 2026 08 22	2	$198	200	200	+0	cancelled	-$2	08-22 20:26
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	2	$181	122	122	+0	No	+$1	08-28 03:02
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$168	251	251	+0	No	+$7	07-04 21:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$142	200	200	+0	open	—	08-24 11:33
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$139	217	217	+0	open	—	09-11 21:36
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$139	480	480	+0	No	+$2	07-14 20:10
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	3	$138	150	150	+0	No	$0	08-18 20:17
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$131	200	200	+0	No	$0	08-20 02:01
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$122	82	82	+0	open	—	09-04 14:10
will wti reach 90 in august 2026	2	$116	100	100	+0	No	+$6	08-21 08:02
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	4	$111	86	86	+0	open	—	09-04 14:11
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	5	$111	68	68	+0	open	—	08-12 17:34
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	2	$110	72	72	+0	No	+$10	09-03 21:35
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	2	$100	69	69	+0	open	—	09-04 14:10
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	2	$99	64	64	+0	Yes	-$1	09-04 14:11
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	6	$98	297	297	+0	open	—	09-04 14:11
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	1	$98	150	0	+150	Yes	+$52	08-31 20:50
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$94	285	285	+0	No	+$4	07-13 21:38
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	2	$92	50	50	+0	Yes	+$2	07-13 21:37
Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	7	$91	100	15	+85	Yes	+$18	08-18 21:08
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	3	$79	70	19	+51	Yes	+$6	08-25 23:18
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	7	$78	100	100	+0	open	—	07-05 10:39
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$72	50	50	+0	open	—	07-05 11:44
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	2	$68	100	100	+0	open	—	09-11 21:36
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$66	200	200	+0	No	-$6	07-15 09:21
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	4	$64	400	400	+0	No	+$46	07-04 14:20
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 115 139	2	$60	32	32	+0	Yes	+$3	04-13 19:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-11 21:36:49	Will Alex de Minaur Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	No	SELL	6	72¢	$4	0x5603ae…
09-11 21:36:43	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	16	32¢	$5	0x7a98da…
09-11 21:36:39	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	8¢	$6	0x8dc1eb…
09-11 21:36:34	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	74	9¢	$6	0xee132e…
09-11 21:36:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	50	18¢	$9	0x75319f…
09-11 21:36:24	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	7¢	$14	0x2641af…
09-11 21:36:16	Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	54¢	$16	0x7802e6…
09-11 21:36:12	Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0xaf5fe3…
09-11 21:36:06	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	48¢	$24	0x2d1788…
09-11 21:36:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	217	18¢	$39	0x734795…
09-04 14:11:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	18	86¢	$15	0x69f703…
09-04 14:11:34	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	97	20¢	$19	0xe510c7…
09-04 14:11:24	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	139	15¢	$21	0x6cded6…
09-04 14:11:12	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	64	76¢	$49	0x3b00d2…
09-04 14:11:01	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	77	64¢	$49	0xf1359b…
09-04 14:10:51	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	69	72¢	$50	0xd7a5c1…
09-04 14:10:37	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	82	72¢	$59	0xd1c2ca…
09-04 14:10:25	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	143	69¢	$99	0xd0e54b…
09-04 11:41:15	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x33f076…
09-04 11:40:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x0e3504…
09-03 21:55:19	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	51	70¢	$35	0x01a2fd…
09-03 21:54:21	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0xe5c126…
09-03 21:53:33	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0xbbe5f8…
09-03 21:53:28	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	80	70¢	$56	0xf9e73f…
09-03 21:35:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	No	SELL	72	83¢	$60	0x089107…
09-03 19:44:03	Will Felix Auger-Aliassime Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	No	SELL	17	33¢	$5	0xc78b23…
09-02 18:59:36	Will Rafael Jodar Make the Top 10 in the 2026 ATP end of year rankings	No	SELL	13	35¢	$5	0x662164…
09-01 18:25:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September?	No	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0x28f82b…
08-31 20:50:01	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	65¢	$98	0x9eb594…
08-31 14:48:33	US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	Yes	SELL	115	88¢	$102	0x898200…
08-29 16:07:31	cs2 ruby1 btf 2026 08 29	Butterfly	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x1f120e…
08-29 16:07:12	cs2 atreid sawy 2026 08 29	SAW Youngsters	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x1f90d6…
08-28 09:22:13	US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	Yes	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x0d7230…
08-28 09:13:01	lol tp2 wlg 2026 08 28	Team Phantasma	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x994479…
08-28 03:02:54	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	122	75¢	$91	0xf67bbc…
08-26 19:09:31	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0xf0bb94…
08-25 23:18:57	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	SELL	19	90¢	$17	0x208e51…
08-24 19:03:58	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x40bf41…
08-24 19:02:04	Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0xbcb925…
08-24 18:59:12	Next OpenAI GPT Image Model (2.1+) released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	61	50¢	$30	0x71ece9…
08-24 18:56:12	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	97	21¢	$20	0xf9184a…
08-24 14:56:39	dota2 sb5 ducksq 2026 08 24 game handicap away 1pt5	summer bear	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x551279…
08-24 14:55:45	dota2 sb5 ducksq 2026 08 24 game2	Ducksquad	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc52011…
08-24 14:55:36	dota2 sb5 ducksq 2026 08 24 game1	Ducksquad	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe5f85e…
08-24 14:55:15	dota2 sb5 ducksq 2026 08 24	Ducksquad	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x936855…
08-24 11:33:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	35¢	$70	0x502451…
08-24 06:51:00	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0xaddcc0…
08-23 14:44:06	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?	No	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0xa0dfca…
08-23 12:59:52	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	100	72¢	$72	0x7e37f2…
08-23 09:52:37	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	82	78¢	$64	0x707f02…
08-23 09:46:10	Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 18.5m?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0xfdc6bb…
08-23 09:45:55	Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	No	SELL	21	28¢	$6	0x631b5b…
08-22 20:56:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644 414 831	No	BUY	122	74¢	$90	0x59f5f8…
08-22 20:26:03	cs2 maybe forzer 2026 08 22	maybe	SELL	200	49¢	$98	0xb0b769…
08-22 13:01:24	cs2 bbp noirve 2026 08 22	Bebop	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xb6c8f9…
08-22 12:59:13	cs2 maybe forzer 2026 08 22	maybe	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x9038e5…
08-21 15:59:22	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x2a53b9…
08-21 15:57:39	Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	SELL	147	100¢	$147	0x2047cf…
08-21 15:56:48	Will "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	No	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x0512f2…
08-21 15:55:57	Will "The Odyssey" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 18.5m?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xb6167e…
08-21 12:40:18	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	90	71¢	$64	0x942bef…
08-21 12:28:03	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x774142…
08-21 11:59:46	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xf979e5…
08-21 11:45:43	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	82¢	$24	0x0496ab…
08-21 08:02:19	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	Yes	SELL	100	61¢	$61	0x78270e…
08-20 16:04:07	cs2 wraith dripto 2026 08 20 game2	WRAITH PCIFIC	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0xb80df8…
08-20 09:04:30	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0xfaa126…
08-20 08:59:48	cs2 bw raccoo 2026 08 20	Bushido Wildcats	SELL	9	53¢	$5	0x96455c…
08-20 08:59:42	cs2 bw raccoo 2026 08 20	Raccoons	SELL	21	46¢	$10	0xbc06bc…
08-20 08:55:46	cs2 bw raccoo 2026 08 20	Bushido Wildcats	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x74ef4f…
08-20 08:55:09	cs2 bw raccoo 2026 08 20	Raccoons	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x1e9f3e…
08-20 02:01:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	200	33¢	$65	0x140fed…
08-19 16:38:48	Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0x6d09e4…
08-19 16:36:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0xd2e16a…
08-19 16:27:46	Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0xe33eba…
08-19 16:24:49	cs2 vita sng 2026 08 19	Sangal ALTERS	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x932244…
08-19 16:24:24	cs2 vita sng 2026 08 19 total games 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xdf548f…
08-19 16:23:51	cs2 vita sng 2026 08 19 total games 2pt5	Under	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x834093…
08-19 16:23:06	cs2 vita sng 2026 08 19 game1	Vitality Academy	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x875f82…
08-19 16:22:42	cs2 vita sng 2026 08 19 game2	Sangal ALTERS	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x8a463d…
08-19 16:22:30	cs2 vita sng 2026 08 19 game1	Sangal ALTERS	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x32885c…
08-19 16:20:16	cs2 eac perm 2026 08 19 game1	Esport Academy Copenhagen	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x456eec…
08-19 16:19:36	cs2 eac perm 2026 08 19 game1	Permitta Esports	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x37ffba…
08-18 23:08:45	Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	Yes	BUY	21	86¢	$18	0xb11666…
08-18 23:08:39	Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x3160bc…
08-18 23:08:36	Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?	Yes	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0xc79a91…
08-18 21:42:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	36¢	$72	0x8b3adc…
08-18 21:17:58	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	200	33¢	$65	0xa4fe55…
08-18 21:08:19	Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	40	79¢	$32	0x6e5c14…
08-18 21:08:18	Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0xa38f78…
08-18 21:08:18	Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x81b339…
08-18 20:24:57	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	51	89¢	$45	0xde8d41…
08-18 20:17:48	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	SELL	150	46¢	$69	0x217a29…
08-18 19:51:48	Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0x5624e9…
08-18 19:22:33	Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x9d8b51…
08-18 18:34:55	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	148	46¢	$68	0xc683e5…
08-18 18:30:39	Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x28320f…
08-18 18:11:51	Will Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x98ea44…
08-18 18:06:21	Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x8648fb…
08-18 18:04:10	Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	19	89¢	$17	0xc8bc33…