Rotating-Deathwatch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$26

Unrealized P&L

-$29

Hit rate

95.5%

Resolved

Trades

212

lifetime

Volume

$7.60K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$36

Open exposure

$977

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 06-05 16:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

46% 57% $-35

Crypto

23% 100% +$2

Politics

18% 100% +$6

Tech

13% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	-200	$-188	99¢	$-197	$-9	06-04 18:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	-200	$-162	90¢	$-181	$-19	06-05 16:07
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	-200	$-178	90¢	$-179	$-1	06-05 16:07
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	+200	$140	60¢	$121	$-19	06-04 18:49
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	+100	$76	80¢	$80	+$4	05-28 14:20
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	+100	$49	62¢	$62	+$12	05-28 16:01
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	+100	$55	55¢	$55	+$0	06-05 08:53
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	No	+50	$43	94¢	$47	+$4	06-01 07:49
Will Trump attend NATO Summit?	Yes	+50	$44	86¢	$43	$-2	06-04 18:32
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	+20	$12	55¢	$11	$-1	06-01 19:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10?	1	$998	1,000	0	+1,000	No	+$2	05-10 15:55
bitcoin above 72k on february 13	1	$500	501	0	+501	open	—	02-13 16:09
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	5	$374	200	200	+0	open	—	05-25 02:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	3	$366	200	200	+0	open	—	05-26 19:19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	2	$348	200	200	+0	open	—	05-26 19:19
gpt 5pt6 released by june 8 2026 884	4	$346	182	200	-18	open	—	06-04 18:08
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	6	$302	200	200	+0	Yes	+$2	03-27 07:34
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	9	$250	200	200	+0	open	—	04-14 10:18
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	1	$188	0	200	-200	open	—	06-04 18:09
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	1	$178	0	200	-200	open	—	06-05 16:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$162	0	200	-200	open	—	06-05 16:07
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	1	$150	200	0	+200	open	—	02-25 01:10
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	1	$140	200	0	+200	open	—	06-04 18:49
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	2	$125	80	80	+0	open	—	04-14 10:02
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	2	$106	80	80	+0	Yes	+$6	05-07 04:59
us announces military support of iran oppostion by march 31	3	$105	100	100	+0	open	—	03-04 18:37
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	5	$98	60	60	+0	Yes	+$8	04-30 06:04
bitcoin above 72k on february 23	1	$97	100	0	+100	open	—	02-23 00:57
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	3	$92	200	200	+0	open	—	02-28 15:16
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 in May?	2	$87	50	50	+0	open	—	05-19 14:15
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?	2	$84	50	50	+0	open	—	05-07 04:59
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	3	$82	191	0	+191	open	—	05-20 07:59
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24)	4	$81	50	50	+0	open	—	05-25 07:21
us x iran meeting by march 31 2026 363	7	$80	131	150	-19	open	—	03-04 20:08
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	1	$76	100	0	+100	open	—	05-28 14:20
will iran announce a new supreme leader on march 4 2026	4	$76	150	150	+0	open	—	03-04 09:36
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	3	$70	200	0	+200	open	—	06-02 06:20
will israel strike 4 countries in march 2026	3	$67	50	50	+0	open	—	03-23 21:10
us x iran meeting by march 15 2026	5	$66	217	270	-53	open	—	03-04 09:37
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	2	$62	40	40	+0	open	—	04-14 10:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-05 16:07:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	200	81¢	$162	0xd0dca3…
06-05 16:07:09	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	89¢	$178	0x9262a6…
06-05 13:31:40	will aapl dip to 304 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x5d3da5…
06-05 08:53:49	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x1da762…
06-05 05:27:42	will ng reach 3 40 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x44ede6…
06-04 18:49:42	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x51243f…
06-04 18:32:12	Will Trump attend NATO Summit?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x858ca2…
06-04 18:09:04	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0xdad71a…
06-04 18:08:45	gpt 5pt6 released by june 8 2026 884	No	SELL	200	97¢	$193	0x1700d8…
06-02 06:20:41	Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	176	35¢	$62	0x5224a1…
06-01 19:13:35	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x90d611…
06-01 17:56:05	Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	No	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0x356804…
06-01 14:37:57	US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x5e3377…
06-01 08:26:40	Will "Scary Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	4	40¢	$2	0x350d1b…
06-01 08:02:57	Will "Scary Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0x282b8b…
06-01 08:02:54	Will "Scary Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xbc3c7f…
06-01 07:49:50	Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x4a456b…
06-01 07:46:27	Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	35¢	$8	0x995a75…
06-01 07:36:40	GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	No	BUY	108	84¢	$91	0x5acb52…
06-01 06:31:27	GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	No	BUY	62	84¢	$52	0xb7d5bb…
06-01 05:52:05	Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xf0b331…
06-01 05:21:17	GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	No	BUY	11	84¢	$9	0xd7083e…
06-01 04:42:35	GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x53350e…
06-01 04:19:20	Will "Scary Movie" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0x52df01…
05-28 16:01:48	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0xdcd0ff…
05-28 14:20:15	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x256254…
05-26 20:03:33	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x7e93ce…
05-26 20:03:05	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0xc9db5b…
05-26 20:02:59	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	BUY	22	74¢	$16	0x63f3a6…
05-26 20:02:58	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in May?	No	BUY	2	74¢	$2	0x98c3f9…
05-26 19:19:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	SELL	200	92¢	$184	0x3eebc9…
05-26 19:19:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x8b1f90…
05-26 00:46:57	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?	No	BUY	25	86¢	$22	0xc15323…
05-26 00:38:01	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xf4ecef…
05-26 00:01:18	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	21	79¢	$17	0x14077f…
05-25 23:40:51	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $320 in May?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x741c9f…
05-25 15:58:41	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $175 in May?	No	SELL	50	54¢	$27	0x3c78a9…
05-25 13:30:22	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?	No	BUY	25	86¢	$22	0x7ac022…
05-25 13:13:09	Will AutoZone (AZO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xc0837e…
05-25 08:29:36	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	11	79¢	$9	0x0d678e…
05-25 07:21:26	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24)	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x03e1e5…
05-25 07:20:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	127	89¢	$113	0x815753…
05-25 07:18:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	73	89¢	$65	0x532d15…
05-25 05:22:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x278bb5…
05-25 04:04:37	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?	Yes	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x092184…
05-25 03:23:09	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?	No	BUY	48	41¢	$20	0xf3e946…
05-25 02:39:15	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0xacc319…
05-25 02:34:56	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.90 in May?	No	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x2e68ae…
05-25 02:13:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$196	0xd5f483…
05-21 00:41:37	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24)	No	BUY	46	64¢	$29	0x21d681…
05-20 20:19:49	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24)	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x3a5833…
05-20 18:07:20	Will Frontline (FRO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0xd8b1a6…
05-20 17:58:16	Will Frontline (FRO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	16	89¢	$14	0xb6024b…
05-20 17:36:04	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/18-5/24)	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x18901c…
05-20 17:13:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	59¢	$30	0x918785…
05-20 15:17:44	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	84¢	$42	0x3d8a1f…
05-20 13:25:05	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?	No	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x926513…
05-20 07:59:27	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	188	43¢	$81	0x0f44f0…
05-20 07:58:18	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xdab512…
05-20 07:57:57	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x1806e0…
05-20 07:19:31	Will Deere Q2 revenue be above $12.5B?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x3c5790…
05-19 23:18:25	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $79 Week of May 18 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	43¢	$6	0xa42ca7…
05-19 20:58:37	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $79 Week of May 18 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	43¢	$15	0x17100e…
05-19 20:58:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	13	89¢	$12	0x7a0fca…
05-19 20:50:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	66	89¢	$59	0x379304…
05-19 20:46:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	109	89¢	$97	0x1459b7…
05-19 19:49:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x3562c1…
05-19 16:51:06	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x889cca…
05-19 15:38:36	Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x3efb92…
05-19 15:02:17	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0xa1c532…
05-19 15:02:14	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	Yes	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x97390d…
05-19 14:15:42	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 in May?	No	SELL	50	97¢	$48	0x3dac01…
05-11 07:33:11	Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31?	No	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0xa50c70…
05-10 22:37:26	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 in May?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x8fb6e4…
05-10 19:24:57	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	53¢	$21	0x7fe023…
05-10 19:15:23	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?	No	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0x60ba1f…
05-10 15:55:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10?	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$998	0xb45598…
05-08 09:44:40	Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on May 8?	Up	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x83bb83…
05-08 06:05:30	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in May?	No	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x130379…
05-08 05:32:42	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xe48f9f…
05-08 04:57:50	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on May 8?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x0dedb4…
05-07 17:26:06	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $175 in May?	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0xf2bbca…
05-07 14:30:50	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 7?	Down	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0x443f39…
05-07 12:51:12	Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on May 7?	Up	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x502223…
05-07 04:59:31	Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0xf7ad4b…
05-07 04:59:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	SELL	80	70¢	$56	0x291d10…
05-02 23:47:38	Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x07cbf9…
05-02 21:24:12	Will "Daddy" be said on ICEMAN?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x532f87…
05-02 18:17:42	FDA approves AstraZeneca's Truqap (capivasertib)?	Yes	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0xbda74a…
05-01 13:40:34	Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xaa3e31…
04-30 20:30:26	Will Donald Trump dance on May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	40	46¢	$19	0x7d2b94…
04-30 17:11:36	Will Vitality make it to the BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x7e5e13…
04-30 15:13:06	Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xeb44d1…
04-30 15:05:44	Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	No	BUY	15	81¢	$12	0x9cae1f…
04-30 13:44:38	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xa3bd9a…
04-30 08:35:52	Will Donald Trump dance on May 1, 2026?	No	BUY	10	46¢	$4	0x93656e…
04-30 06:04:30	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	SELL	60	89¢	$53	0x064944…
04-14 21:09:22	Will Encore Medical’s market cap be less than $45M at market close on IPO day?	No	BUY	40	60¢	$24	0x1f78ee…
04-14 10:54:51	will madison airs market cap be greater than 13pt5b at market close on ipo day	No	BUY	30	55¢	$17	0x32fc63…
04-14 10:23:25	will madison airs market cap be greater than 13pt5b at market close on ipo day	No	BUY	10	55¢	$5	0x39905a…