Realized P&L
+$303
Unrealized P&L
+$467
Hit rate
67.9%
Resolved
71
Trades
3,033
lifetime
Volume
$110.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$36
Open exposure
$1.16K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-06 05:22
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 14 days
Categories
Other
59% 64% +$203
Politics
19% 100% +$22
Crypto
10% 100% +$77
Sports
7%
Tech
4%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
76 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes -2,846 $-1,301 20¢ $-583 +$718 06-11 02:35
Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,854 $354 $158 $-196 06-16 08:08
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? No -116 $-99 76¢ $-88 +$11 06-03 18:04
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes +162 $58 38¢ $61 +$2 05-29 15:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No -62 $-32 86¢ $-53 $-21 06-01 07:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No -38 $-31 100¢ $-38 $-7 06-17 10:03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +94 $30 22¢ $21 $-9 06-16 14:48
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes +47 $20 26¢ $12 $-8 05-28 06:31
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes +143 $18 $11 $-7 06-08 18:40
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? No +11 $10 94¢ $10 +$0 06-03 17:43
Will Zcash reach $900 by December 31, 2026? Yes +58 $16 18¢ $10 $-5 06-16 08:08
Haiti elections delayed again? Yes +13 $5 72¢ $10 +$5 06-11 08:35
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes +100 $10 10¢ $10 $-0 07-06 08:26
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? Yes +37 $10 22¢ $8 $-2 06-16 08:23
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? Yes +25 $9 30¢ $8 $-1 07-03 04:03
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes +8 $7 84¢ $7 $-0 06-29 05:10
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +10 $5 64¢ $7 +$2 06-10 07:44
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +18 $10 34¢ $6 $-4 06-16 08:22
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes +7 $5 78¢ $6 +$1 07-02 14:38
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? No +6 $5 84¢ $5 +$0 06-29 09:55
Theo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes +13 $5 40¢ $5 +$0 07-06 08:26
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes +12 $5 40¢ $5 +$0 06-10 03:10
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +8 $5 62¢ $5 +$0 07-06 08:26
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes +7 $5 70¢ $5 +$0 06-10 03:09
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes +8 $5 62¢ $5 $-0 06-29 09:55
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2027? Yes +7 $5 72¢ $5 $-0 06-29 09:55
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes +37 $6 12¢ $5 $-1 06-29 05:08
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes +12 $5 36¢ $4 $-1 06-29 05:10
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes +62 $10 $4 $-6 06-03 17:32
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes +9 $5 32¢ $3 $-2 06-03 17:35