Distorted-Contention — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.84K

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

73.4%

Resolved

239

Trades

3,561

lifetime

Volume

$210.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$59

Open exposure

$24

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 10-25 23:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 69% -$2,239

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$389

Sports

0% 0% —

Other

0% 83% +$4

Politics

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No		+20	$18	96¢	$19	+$1	06-19 18:26
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No		+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	10-25 23:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down february 13 3am et	46	$9.0K	4,707	4,707	+0	Up	+$54	02-13 08:59
bitcoin up or down february 23 10pm et	143	$8.5K	13,629	9,961	+3,668	Down	-$534	02-24 03:53
bitcoin up or down february 21 8pm et	72	$7.3K	3,178	4,229	-1,050	Up	+$17	02-22 02:01
bitcoin up or down february 15 11pm et	43	$6.5K	12,761	4,727	+8,034	Up	-$55	02-16 06:31
bitcoin up or down february 6 11am et	94	$6.5K	3,492	3,492	+0	Up	+$39	02-06 16:59
bitcoin up or down february 6 7pm et	39	$5.8K	2,991	2,991	+0	Down	+$29	02-07 00:59
bitcoin up or down february 6 8pm et	74	$5.5K	3,213	3,108	+105	Up	+$114	02-07 01:57
bitcoin up or down february 21 10pm et	29	$5.4K	2,709	2,709	+0	Up	+$11	02-22 03:58
bitcoin up or down february 16 10am et	12	$5.0K	2,500	2,500	+0	Down	+$3	02-16 15:53
bitcoin up or down february 23 4am et	94	$4.7K	2,411	2,411	+0	Up	+$21	02-23 09:52
bitcoin up or down february 6 7am et	50	$4.5K	2,500	2,500	+0	Down	+$120	02-06 13:06
bitcoin up or down february 21 9pm et	38	$4.5K	2,268	2,268	+0	Down	+$11	02-22 02:54
bitcoin up or down february 6 9am et	102	$4.4K	3,097	2,597	+500	Up	-$245	02-06 14:56
bitcoin up or down february 23 3am et	6	$4.4K	2,188	2,188	-0	Down	$0	02-23 08:57
bitcoin above 70k on february 16	5	$4.0K	2,017	2,017	+0	No	+$0	02-16 16:20
bitcoin up or down february 11 5am et	28	$3.9K	2,160	2,160	+0	Down	+$8	02-11 11:00
bitcoin up or down february 7 12am et	59	$3.9K	2,917	1,917	+1,000	Down	-$515	02-07 05:59
bitcoin up or down february 8 10pm et	23	$3.8K	4,800	4,800	+0	Up	-$198	02-09 03:58
bitcoin up or down february 6 8am et	47	$3.5K	1,973	1,973	+0	Up	+$29	02-06 13:56
bitcoin up or down february 6 6am et	28	$3.5K	1,902	1,902	+0	Up	+$301	02-06 12:30
will the price of ethereum be between 2300 2400 on february 7	2	$3.4K	1,715	1,715	+0	No	+$0	02-07 14:27
bitcoin up or down february 24 8pm et	12	$3.2K	1,627	1,627	+0	Up	+$2	02-25 01:45
bitcoin up or down february 21 7pm et	28	$3.2K	1,613	1,613	+0	Down	+$5	02-22 01:00
bitcoin up or down february 7 2am et	59	$2.7K	1,600	1,600	+0	Down	+$60	02-07 07:21
bitcoin up or down february 7 3am et	77	$2.6K	2,000	2,000	+0	Up	-$84	02-07 09:08
bitcoin up or down february 6 12pm et	54	$2.5K	1,600	1,600	+0	Up	+$26	02-06 17:52
bitcoin up or down february 23 9am et	55	$2.2K	1,300	1,300	+0	Down	+$9	02-23 14:49
bitcoin up or down february 7 5am et	67	$2.2K	1,600	1,600	+0	Down	+$89	02-07 10:59
ethereum above 2400 on february 8	1	$2.0K	2,033	0	+2,033	No	+$2	02-08 14:53
bitcoin above 60k on february 19	1	$2.0K	2,020	0	+2,020	Yes	+$2	02-19 09:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 23:53:35	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x94a5cb…
06-28 03:17:38	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x0ea925…
06-28 02:51:41	bitcoin above 56k on june 28 2026	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdc1cde…
06-28 02:51:41	bitcoin above 58k on june 28 2026	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xcfc7ad…
06-28 02:21:56	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0181a9…
06-19 18:26:44	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xb6c5b0…
05-28 03:54:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6ea3b7…
05-19 08:18:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x228168…
05-19 08:14:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xaeeca6…
05-17 23:35:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbbad39…
05-17 10:36:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb0df0c…
05-17 10:20:44	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x39b547…
05-17 08:56:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xba83af…
05-17 08:39:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x085772…
05-17 08:38:25	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 11-17?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe60cb2…
05-17 08:36:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xba4b26…
05-14 12:01:27	Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x8bada7…
05-14 11:12:55	Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xa78703…
05-14 11:11:05	Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcd9796…
05-14 11:10:30	Will Trump say "Cookie" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x2f0596…
05-14 11:06:57	Will Trump say "IQ" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x9a8a71…
05-14 11:06:20	Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9d4466…
05-14 11:05:43	Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x21868e…
05-14 11:03:41	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x09500a…
05-14 11:00:35	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xd96c1f…
05-14 10:57:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc65e2e…
05-14 10:55:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1c2b5c…
05-14 10:54:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xa2d8e9…
05-14 10:52:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbf12db…
05-13 13:37:36	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xfb73d9…
05-13 12:38:31	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x937f88…
05-13 12:34:15	Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x38b2d2…
05-13 12:32:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xff3de7…
05-13 12:27:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x43dfcb…
04-01 11:49:51	bitcoin above 64k on april 1	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x843246…
04-01 11:28:39	bitcoin above 72k on april 1	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x35f788…
03-25 10:37:25	will bitcoin reach 150k in march 2026	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0xc5a5b3…
03-25 02:29:15	bitcoin above 66k on march 25	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4833d4…
03-25 00:55:29	bitcoin above 62k on march 25	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xec862d…
03-24 15:01:35	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	SELL	786	0¢	$1	0x1c2415…
03-24 14:54:29	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	SELL	86	0¢	$0	0x539ffd…
03-24 14:28:35	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x7548dc…
03-24 14:16:45	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x30d1eb…
03-24 14:10:55	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0x7f7b75…
03-24 14:05:33	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	SELL	1,053	0¢	$1	0xd279fa…
03-24 07:09:37	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	SELL	1,059	0¢	$1	0x551306…
03-24 07:06:31	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	923	0¢	$1	0x78267f…
03-24 07:06:09	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xd92624…
03-24 07:05:43	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x2b22c7…
03-24 07:05:37	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xa3291f…
03-24 07:05:37	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x6db4fd…
03-24 07:05:31	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xe8aea1…
03-24 07:05:27	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xe87d4b…
03-24 07:05:25	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x3e543a…
03-24 07:05:23	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x5a04f0…
03-24 07:05:19	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x49f922…
03-24 07:05:13	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x6779c8…
03-24 07:05:05	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x339cf8…
03-24 07:04:59	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xf46c66…
03-24 07:04:55	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x7e65e4…
03-24 07:04:47	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	9	0¢	$0	0x0334a8…
03-24 07:04:13	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x94fd28…
03-24 07:04:09	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	32	0¢	$0	0x2d0218…
03-24 07:04:07	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	36	0¢	$0	0xafc765…
03-24 07:04:05	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xc320f6…
03-24 07:04:05	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0xa60ba0…
03-24 07:04:05	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0x9f211c…
03-24 07:04:05	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	32	0¢	$0	0x152898…
03-24 07:04:03	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	28	0¢	$0	0x682e9b…
03-24 07:04:03	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	29	0¢	$0	0x134907…
03-24 07:04:01	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	32	0¢	$0	0xd20362…
03-24 07:04:01	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	27	0¢	$0	0x976b54…
03-24 07:02:29	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xf0865c…
03-24 07:01:11	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x12ba16…
03-24 07:00:53	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x5e3db4…
03-24 07:00:45	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x748d55…
03-24 07:00:35	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0xdafdae…
03-24 07:00:33	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0x0b2e98…
03-24 07:00:25	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xe6bf00…
03-24 06:59:51	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0xdb0d40…
03-24 06:59:21	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	450	0¢	$0	0x7feed7…
03-24 06:59:03	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	69	0¢	$0	0x20e0c6…
03-24 06:56:57	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x1d66ea…
03-24 06:56:35	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x3e451e…
03-24 06:56:19	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0xa0e1fc…
03-24 06:56:19	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x8206e3…
03-24 06:56:15	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x69cbff…
03-24 06:55:49	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xfe9c6a…
03-24 06:55:49	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x909834…
03-24 06:55:47	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	12	0¢	$0	0xecc018…
03-24 06:55:47	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xbb64ea…
03-24 06:55:47	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x7b9832…
03-24 06:55:47	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x26c4a2…
03-24 06:55:47	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x1ba774…
03-24 06:54:59	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0x2d5ee9…
03-24 06:54:55	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	31	0¢	$0	0xac81a1…
03-24 06:54:55	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x723f5c…
03-24 06:54:55	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0x662622…
03-24 06:54:53	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	33	0¢	$0	0xa206c1…
03-24 06:54:53	bitcoin above 64k on march 24	No	BUY	23	0¢	$0	0x0a5a5a…