Humble-Vestment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.53K

Hit rate

60.5%

Resolved

194

Trades

724

lifetime

Volume

$364.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$503

Open exposure

$21.6K

14 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-03 20:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 84 days

Categories

Other

48% 66% -$2,071

Politics

25% 56% -$8,606

Sports

14% 63% +$1,333

Tech

9% 62% -$1,239

Crypto

4% 100% +$165

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$40

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (14) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+8,820	$8,027	94¢	$8.3K	+$309	10-15 05:54
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	+5,164	$3,528	94¢	$4.8K	+$1,300	10-15 17:36
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,212	$1,133	97¢	$1.2K	+$46	09-10 18:00
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	-1,190	-$1,060	96¢	$-1142	-$83	06-06 18:35
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,124	$1,000	98¢	$1.1K	+$103	07-31 18:25
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	+1,119	$995	94¢	$1.1K	+$56	10-15 17:29
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,087	$1,042	95¢	$1.0K	-$9	10-15 17:23
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+690	$704	92¢	$631	-$73	10-07 18:09
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Yes	+698	$600	88¢	$614	+$14	10-07 18:17
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	+715	$516	82¢	$583	+$67	10-22 17:32
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Yes	+533	$500	95¢	$505	+$5	10-07 19:28
Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?	Yes	+491	$469	96¢	$471	+$2	11-03 20:21
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-135	$80	97¢	$-131	-$211	07-23 17:29
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	-1	-$1	94¢	$-1	$0	05-01 18:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	18	$20.1K	13,937	8,773	+5,164	open	—	10-15 17:36
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	12	$12.8K	6,818	6,818	+0	No	+$136	08-13 04:55
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 440m and 480m by january 31	10	$9.1K	0	9,181	-9,181	No	-$58	01-12 12:06
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	10	$8.3K	11,742	11,742	+0	open	—	06-19 17:28
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	8	$8.0K	8,820	0	+8,820	open	—	10-15 05:54
will anthropic have the 1 ai model at the end of february 2026	12	$7.4K	8,181	1,340	+6,840	Yes	-$53	02-28 18:50
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?	17	$7.2K	6,647	6,647	+0	Yes	-$5,037	05-04 05:52
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	10	$6.0K	3,305	3,305	+0	No	+$598	03-31 18:42
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	2	$5.7K	4,065	4,065	+0	open	—	07-25 19:03
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$5.6K	0	5,717	-5,717	No	-$114	06-06 18:10
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	8	$5.3K	7,576	211	+7,365	Yes	-$1,431	02-06 20:42
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	5	$5.3K	2,862	2,862	+0	Yes	+$253	03-12 14:16
will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	5	$4.3K	2,541	2,541	+0	Yes	+$438	02-22 18:46
will communist party of nepal uml win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election	5	$4.0K	2,064	2,064	+0	No	+$49	03-05 19:17
will the united states win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	5	$4.0K	1,922	2,519	-597	No	+$219	02-20 06:23
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	6	$4.0K	4,382	0	+4,382	Yes	+$382	06-27 18:58
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	6	$3.8K	2,579	2,579	+0	open	—	08-05 17:25
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	7	$3.8K	2,096	2,096	+0	Yes	-$3	07-31 17:29
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	10	$3.4K	1,815	1,815	+0	No	+$175	04-20 18:37
Will Mumbai Indians win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	6	$3.3K	1,857	1,857	+0	No	+$319	05-07 18:16
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	2	$3.3K	2,190	1,500	+690	open	—	10-07 18:09
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	3	$3.2K	1,667	1,667	+0	No	+$154	03-21 19:09
2026 us senate election democrats flip republicans by march 31	12	$3.1K	4,435	98	+4,337	Yes	-$952	03-13 20:10
will italy win the third most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	6	$3.1K	3,333	1,025	+2,308	Yes	-$1,748	02-20 15:30
si hit 55 low jan 2026 373 679 385	3	$3.1K	1,595	1,595	+0	No	+$87	01-24 18:27
will google have the best ai model for coding on march 31	6	$3.1K	1,588	1,588	+0	No	+$78	03-24 18:58
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	2	$3.0K	2,162	1,081	+1,081	Yes	+$129	09-22 18:24
will mrbeast hit 465 million subscribers by january 31 316 216 943	13	$2.9K	4,189	7	+4,182	Yes	-$201	01-29 14:54
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	6	$2.9K	1,871	1,871	+0	Yes	-$506	02-28 18:42
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	4	$2.9K	2,264	1,176	+1,087	open	—	10-15 17:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 20:21:09	Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	491	96¢	$469	0x86f7ad…
11-03 20:12:43	Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	529	88¢	$466	0x8a5398…
11-01 17:54:06	Will the Republican Party win the TX-10 House seat?	Yes	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xca74c2…
11-01 17:53:46	Will the Republican Party win the TX-10 House seat?	Yes	BUY	591	93¢	$550	0xfdfa6b…
11-01 17:50:52	Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	241	83¢	$200	0x1d2010…
10-28 18:27:43	Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	70	92¢	$64	0x9e4b0e…
10-28 18:27:17	Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	76	84¢	$64	0xb1e3db…
10-28 18:27:07	Will the Republican Party win the TN-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	459	90¢	$415	0x95ec43…
10-28 18:26:07	Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	101	85¢	$86	0xd56362…
10-28 18:25:47	Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	35	85¢	$30	0x56c527…
10-28 18:25:31	Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	35	85¢	$30	0x789224…
10-28 18:25:23	Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	35	85¢	$30	0x371582…
10-28 18:25:14	Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	282	85¢	$241	0x9bdb08…
10-28 18:20:31	Will the Republican Party win the WI-06 House seat?	Yes	BUY	513	92¢	$474	0x6a0e10…
10-28 18:18:43	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	543	87¢	$473	0x655f08…
10-27 18:50:09	Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	564	90¢	$509	0xc3d102…
10-27 18:48:20	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	744	68¢	$506	0xcf9667…
10-24 17:44:05	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	759	90¢	$682	0x1ed0ed…
10-24 17:43:41	Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	Yes	SELL	783	87¢	$681	0x998979…
10-22 17:32:57	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	80¢	$7	0xf0a403…
10-15 17:36:40	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	707	72¢	$509	0x434b4d…
10-15 17:36:20	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	550	94¢	$517	0xb03a1b…
10-15 17:29:50	Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,119	89¢	$995	0x04b55f…
10-15 17:28:25	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,067	94¢	$1,003	0x5af8a1…
10-15 17:23:13	Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	318	89¢	$283	0x4f9e97…
10-15 17:22:52	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	95¢	$285	0x4650aa…
10-15 05:54:40	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,283	91¢	$1,168	0x933f13…
10-15 05:54:11	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,250	94¢	$1,175	0xf602e2…
10-14 17:53:43	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,546	91¢	$1,407	0x090b05…
10-14 17:53:25	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,500	94¢	$1,415	0xf22578…
10-14 17:51:55	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2,905	91¢	$2,644	0xf6f67d…
10-14 17:51:31	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,800	95¢	$2,660	0x871298…
10-13 19:39:21	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	330	71¢	$234	0x1f38c4…
10-13 19:39:03	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	95¢	$238	0xd82156…
10-13 18:31:27	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	414	71¢	$294	0x9cb372…
10-12 18:25:11	Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xddce9e…
10-10 17:49:28	Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xef4da5…
10-10 17:49:00	Will Obsession rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Movies of 2026?	Yes	BUY	560	89¢	$500	0x8a6562…
10-10 17:37:28	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,056	95¢	$1,003	0x80738b…
10-10 17:32:07	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	335	91¢	$304	0x372755…
10-07 19:28:28	Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	533	94¢	$500	0xea1a71…
10-07 19:27:31	Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat?	Yes	SELL	490	84¢	$412	0xcbc5a1…
10-07 18:17:25	Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0xa50536…
10-07 18:17:18	Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	581	86¢	$500	0xc3d7b1…
10-07 18:14:28	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	174	93¢	$162	0xfb7b1e…
10-07 18:14:00	Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	769	91¢	$700	0x5e73d1…
10-07 18:09:00	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,500	86¢	$1,289	0x99c796…
10-05 18:20:16	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	538	93¢	$500	0xbfbb7f…
09-22 18:25:27	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,125	93¢	$1,046	0xb206ec…
09-22 18:24:51	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	1,081	97¢	$1,048	0x02c863…
09-10 18:10:06	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	915	87¢	$796	0x600b74…
09-10 18:00:39	Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	93¢	$33	0x656bb2…
09-10 18:00:27	Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x32ffcf…
09-10 17:58:03	Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,176	80¢	$941	0x0a01e5…
09-09 06:21:03	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-48 House seat?	Yes	BUY	283	89¢	$252	0x1ff505…
09-09 06:19:31	Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	570	88¢	$500	0x75751c…
09-06 06:18:22	Will the Republican Party win the FL-12 House seat?	Yes	BUY	490	91¢	$446	0x47ea41…
09-06 06:10:33	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-22 House seat?	Yes	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0xee0108…
09-06 06:09:31	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-22 House seat?	Yes	BUY	527	86¢	$456	0x34e635…
09-05 07:56:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,130	85¢	$961	0x54dca2…
08-26 12:21:10	Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat?	Yes	BUY	658	89¢	$586	0xb91088…
08-26 12:18:03	Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?	Yes	BUY	543	92¢	$500	0x90f80c…
08-26 12:17:33	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,099	99¢	$1,090	0x05e66a…
08-20 11:04:04	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-48 House seat?	Yes	BUY	549	89¢	$490	0x5434de…
08-20 11:02:51	Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-09 House seat?	Yes	BUY	549	91¢	$500	0xc2f37e…
08-20 11:01:58	Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,069	94¢	$1,000	0x5d3c2c…
08-20 07:54:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,130	91¢	$1,034	0x261ce7…
08-14 13:36:01	Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,190	91¢	$1,993	0x622a03…
08-13 05:04:15	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,503	93¢	$4,187	0xf6d527…
08-13 04:55:57	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	4,290	97¢	$4,161	0x338e33…
08-13 04:54:19	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,736	92¢	$1,600	0xf764e0…
08-08 19:18:21	Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x1498ed…
08-07 18:47:07	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	531	94¢	$500	0x72fd31…
08-07 18:26:54	Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	SELL	610	67¢	$410	0x12aead…
08-05 17:25:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,266	73¢	$930	0x6e158b…
08-02 18:28:15	Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?	Yes	BUY	755	94¢	$710	0xdf76df…
07-31 18:27:27	Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,176	85¢	$1,000	0x195bcf…
07-31 18:25:54	Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,124	89¢	$1,000	0x1db556…
07-31 17:29:18	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	330	100¢	$330	0x93f638…
07-31 17:29:18	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	645	100¢	$644	0x352ab6…
07-31 17:28:56	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?	No	SELL	616	100¢	$615	0x6b235a…
07-31 17:28:44	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	No	SELL	516	100¢	$515	0xd06079…
07-30 20:43:21	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	333	95¢	$316	0x2757a1…
07-30 06:33:20	Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,013	79¢	$800	0x47414d…
07-29 18:08:21	Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?	Yes	BUY	610	82¢	$500	0xb9d49b…
07-29 18:07:38	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	703	85¢	$600	0xdb77b5…
07-28 18:32:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0xd30926…
07-28 18:32:41	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	879	91¢	$800	0xdfdff4…
07-28 18:31:46	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	SELL	713	100¢	$712	0x1e688f…
07-28 18:22:50	Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	530	94¢	$500	0x042cee…
07-28 17:33:02	Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?	No	SELL	899	75¢	$676	0x1f6fc6…
07-25 19:04:55	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	767	83¢	$640	0x6a41f8…
07-25 19:03:57	Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,065	67¢	$2,716	0x578020…
07-25 19:03:39	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,220	82¢	$1,000	0x0f6da0…
07-23 17:29:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,176	85¢	$1,000	0xc8a987…
07-23 17:29:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,266	79¢	$1,000	0xec0549…
07-22 18:19:21	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,200	83¢	$1,000	0xe057d9…
07-22 18:19:03	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?	No	BUY	616	97¢	$600	0x54edf5…
07-22 17:45:04	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	619	97¢	$600	0x4ea610…
07-18 05:53:04	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	394	75¢	$297	0x5f09ba…