Humble-Vestment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$578

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

533

lifetime

Volume

$239.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$450

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-05 17:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

50% 100% +$18

Politics

21% — —

Sports

15% 100% +$560

Tech

10% — —

Crypto

5% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 440m and 480m by january 31	10	$9.1K	0	9,181	-9,181	open	—	01-12 12:06
will anthropic have the 1 ai model at the end of february 2026	12	$7.4K	8,181	1,340	+6,840	open	—	02-28 18:50
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	10	$6.0K	3,305	3,305	+0	open	—	03-31 18:42
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$5.6K	0	5,717	-5,717	open	—	06-06 18:10
will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	13	$5.6K	6,052	0	+6,052	open	—	04-26 19:10
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	8	$5.3K	7,576	211	+7,365	open	—	02-06 20:42
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	5	$5.3K	2,862	2,862	+0	open	—	03-12 14:16
will norway win the most medals in the 2026 winter olympics	5	$4.3K	2,541	2,541	+0	open	—	02-22 18:46
will communist party of nepal uml win the most seats in the nepal house of representatives election	5	$4.0K	2,064	2,064	+0	open	—	03-05 19:17
will the united states win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	5	$4.0K	1,922	2,519	-597	open	—	02-20 06:23
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	10	$3.4K	1,815	1,815	+0	open	—	04-20 18:37
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	3	$3.2K	1,667	1,667	+0	open	—	03-21 19:09
2026 us senate election democrats flip republicans by march 31	12	$3.1K	4,435	98	+4,337	open	—	03-13 20:10
will italy win the third most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	6	$3.1K	3,333	1,025	+2,308	open	—	02-20 15:30
si hit 55 low jan 2026 373 679 385	3	$3.1K	1,595	1,595	+0	open	—	01-24 18:27
will google have the best ai model for coding on march 31	6	$3.1K	1,588	1,588	+0	open	—	03-24 18:58
will mrbeast hit 465 million subscribers by january 31 316 216 943	13	$2.9K	4,189	7	+4,182	open	—	01-29 14:54
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	6	$2.9K	1,871	1,871	+0	open	—	02-28 18:42
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	6	$2.9K	3,799	583	+3,216	open	—	04-21 06:56
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$2.8K	1,266	2,579	-1,314	open	—	08-05 17:25
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	7	$2.6K	3,395	3,395	+0	open	—	01-05 15:02
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$2.6K	1,401	1,401	+0	open	—	06-19 17:31
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	9	$2.5K	2,869	392	+2,477	open	—	04-21 18:58
will pheu thai party pt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	3	$2.5K	1,294	1,294	+0	open	—	02-08 14:53
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$2.3K	1,321	1,321	+0	open	—	02-06 20:33
will jean michel aulas win the 2026 lyon mayoral election	7	$2.3K	2,000	969	+1,031	open	—	03-14 05:42
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$2.1K	1,151	1,151	+0	open	—	06-22 17:36
will joo cotrim figueiredo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election	6	$2.1K	2,790	406	+2,383	open	—	01-12 14:33
will mrbeast hit 462 million subscribers by january 31	3	$2.1K	1,159	1,159	+0	open	—	01-14 18:27
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	5	$2.1K	1,155	1,155	+0	open	—	04-14 18:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 17:25:45	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,266	73¢	$930	0x6e158b…
07-31 17:28:44	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	No	SELL	516	100¢	$515	0xd06079…
07-28 18:31:46	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	SELL	713	100¢	$712	0x1e688f…
07-23 17:29:52	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,176	85¢	$1,000	0xc8a987…
07-23 17:29:27	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,266	79¢	$1,000	0xec0549…
07-16 18:39:13	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x33dcba…
07-15 19:12:28	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	No	BUY	516	96¢	$495	0xfd0445…
07-11 18:20:02	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	BUY	84	95¢	$80	0x6dd090…
07-11 18:19:40	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	BUY	526	95¢	$500	0x32733d…
07-11 18:18:19	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	638	94¢	$600	0xcd8a09…
07-04 00:28:10	will argentina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120771	Yes	SELL	588	69¢	$408	0xef58d0…
07-01 06:12:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	2,162	93¢	$2,000	0x6096a3…
06-30 17:13:41	will france reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120767	Yes	SELL	562	88¢	$494	0x3a62e0…
06-26 17:03:13	will argentina reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120771	Yes	BUY	588	85¢	$500	0x4bb79e…
06-26 17:02:49	will france reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120767	Yes	BUY	562	89¢	$500	0x2ad405…
06-26 06:19:11	Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	751	84¢	$634	0x61ad20…
06-23 18:05:02	Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	538	93¢	$500	0xa02dd4…
06-22 17:37:23	Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,087	100¢	$1,084	0x9d3edd…
06-22 17:36:50	Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,151	100¢	$1,149	0x98bed3…
06-19 17:31:29	Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,401	99¢	$1,391	0xc725f5…
06-11 14:01:09	Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	751	83¢	$624	0x2fe6de…
06-06 18:42:18	Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	225	85¢	$191	0xba540d…
06-06 18:41:55	Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,087	92¢	$1,000	0x77da44…
06-06 18:41:03	Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1,149	84¢	$970	0x4e489e…
06-06 18:40:42	Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	543	92¢	$500	0x2a15d2…
06-06 18:38:48	Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,126	89¢	$1,000	0xf08836…
06-06 18:37:13	Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,151	87¢	$1,000	0x6954b0…
06-06 18:36:48	Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,098	91¢	$1,000	0x0c046f…
06-06 18:35:25	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	SELL	1,190	89¢	$1,060	0xd5f498…
06-06 18:33:43	Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,176	85¢	$1,000	0xfc7d09…
06-06 18:31:45	Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1,136	88¢	$999	0xfe7504…
06-06 18:27:43	Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1,149	87¢	$1,000	0xbb2abe…
06-06 18:10:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	5,717	98¢	$5,603	0x437928…
06-06 13:43:40	Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1,136	88¢	$1,000	0xb72e87…
06-06 04:45:21	Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	466	82¢	$382	0x7bc56a…
06-06 04:44:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,163	84¢	$977	0xba4d35…
06-02 12:22:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,311	70¢	$920	0x97468e…
05-31 18:39:47	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	BUY	47	90¢	$42	0x69c42f…
05-31 18:39:19	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30?	No	BUY	388	90¢	$350	0x02f9ed…
05-31 18:36:31	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	911	98¢	$896	0x9334f8…
05-30 19:01:44	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	512	98¢	$503	0x71c95a…
05-28 19:07:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,314	67¢	$886	0x734796…
05-28 18:38:55	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	No	SELL	1,075	99¢	$1,060	0xedeb33…
05-07 18:47:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	No	BUY	1,075	93¢	$1,000	0x8a9f2a…
04-28 18:49:00	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	SELL	554	99¢	$547	0xaa5d35…
04-26 19:11:28	Will Braga win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?	No	BUY	562	89¢	$501	0x0aecd6…
04-26 19:10:56	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	BUY	573	91¢	$520	0xb9044d…
04-23 18:55:14	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	BUY	423	88¢	$372	0x9fd61d…
04-23 18:36:40	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	BUY	109	88¢	$96	0x6add07…
04-23 18:36:20	Will MrBeast hit 119.5 billion views by April 30?	Yes	SELL	132	73¢	$96	0x372166…
04-23 18:34:42	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	BUY	650	88¢	$572	0x8e2883…
04-23 18:34:12	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	585	98¢	$571	0x8ddf3a…
04-22 18:39:50	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	BUY	574	88¢	$505	0xf3df19…
04-22 18:39:28	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	526	96¢	$505	0x56bec1…
04-22 18:10:28	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	BUY	163	86¢	$141	0x4b2df6…
04-21 18:58:46	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	387	96¢	$369	0x46cc6b…
04-21 18:58:36	Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?	No	SELL	122	97¢	$118	0x40c873…
04-21 06:56:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	583	67¢	$391	0x751db3…
04-21 06:54:08	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	1,608	33¢	$528	0xdb0aeb…
04-21 06:50:02	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?	No	SELL	535	99¢	$528	0xa31f0e…
04-20 19:12:16	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	BUY	76	93¢	$71	0xff6314…
04-20 19:00:58	will the communist party of india marxist cpim win the most seats in the 2026 kerala legislative assembly election	Yes	SELL	148	44¢	$65	0x1a0c54…
04-20 19:00:42	Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	SELL	277	2¢	$6	0x70fa8b…
04-20 18:50:40	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	566	88¢	$500	0x8199d1…
04-20 18:37:04	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	1,695	99¢	$1,676	0xc37e9e…
04-17 18:16:58	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	BUY	431	93¢	$401	0x119a3d…
04-17 17:49:18	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	77	88¢	$68	0xa6d40f…
04-17 17:49:06	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	566	88¢	$500	0x760fa9…
04-17 17:48:08	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	SELL	933	44¢	$413	0x9cef05…
04-15 19:16:18	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	585	92¢	$539	0x9d450d…
04-14 18:58:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	272	92¢	$250	0x3f3346…
04-14 18:58:38	Will Mumbai Indians win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	No	BUY	588	85¢	$500	0x57219f…
04-14 18:57:54	Will Mumbai Indians win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	No	BUY	588	85¢	$500	0x8a2f7a…
04-14 18:57:30	Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	Yes	SELL	541	98¢	$529	0x4df5f9…
04-14 18:57:20	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	SELL	530	98¢	$520	0x46b44c…
04-14 18:57:10	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	SELL	1,155	98¢	$1,133	0xaacdd9…
04-14 18:47:24	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	271	92¢	$249	0x291d19…
04-14 18:41:10	Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?	No	SELL	546	98¢	$537	0xc43c35…
04-14 18:40:58	Will Bologna win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?	No	SELL	536	99¢	$531	0xf1c3a0…
04-13 18:07:15	Will MrBeast hit 478 million subscribers by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,085	100¢	$1,079	0x858eaf…
04-13 18:07:03	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	159	99¢	$158	0x8a5800…
04-12 12:49:49	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	BUY	431	93¢	$402	0x8f46e1…
04-12 12:49:27	Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?	Yes	SELL	452	89¢	$401	0x986d54…
04-09 18:27:47	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	BUY	502	96¢	$482	0xa8eef9…
04-08 18:16:25	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	222	90¢	$200	0xa60dd8…
04-08 18:12:25	Will MrBeast hit 119.5 billion views by April 30?	Yes	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0xa93815…
04-08 18:08:03	Will Chennai Super Kings win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	277	4¢	$10	0xf97b41…
04-08 18:07:25	Will Mumbai Indians win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	No	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x416f11…
04-08 13:54:43	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?	No	BUY	538	93¢	$500	0x1c80bb…
04-08 13:53:43	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x6e144d…
04-08 13:27:35	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	543	92¢	$500	0x0cf065…
04-08 08:45:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	SELL	359	49¢	$175	0xf99a96…
04-08 08:43:29	Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	Yes	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0xef462e…
04-08 08:41:49	Will MrBeast hit 480 million subscribers by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,358	52¢	$700	0x5084f0…
04-08 08:39:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	SELL	525	86¢	$452	0x96e203…
04-07 18:52:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	BUY	532	94¢	$500	0xc23196…
04-06 18:46:57	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	222	90¢	$200	0x5011ed…
04-06 18:45:17	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	139	72¢	$100	0xaabd8a…
04-06 18:39:19	will tamilaga vettri kazhagam tvk win the most seats in the 2026 tamil nadu legislative assembly election	No	BUY	525	95¢	$500	0x667a5c…
04-06 18:22:49	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x9b8069…