Wise-Diffuse — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$28

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

32.8%

Resolved (90d)

115

Trades (90d)

870

1,327 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$21.9K

$32.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$49

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 11-09 04:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 76 days

Categories

Politics

32% 49% +$0

Other

31% 43% -$28

Sports

31% 46% +$22

Crypto

6% 69% +$3

Tech

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

77 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+26	$26	99¢	$26	$0	11-09 04:03
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+24	$23	99¢	$23	+$0	11-08 21:52
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+0	$0	100¢	$0	+$0	10-29 05:01
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+0	$0	99¢	$0	$0	07-18 17:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	34	$1.0K	518	518	+0	No	$0	10-14 07:06
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	33	$864	441	441	+0	open	—	11-07 17:50
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	37	$860	439	439	+0	No	$0	07-07 17:06
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	28	$822	414	414	+0	No	$0	10-16 03:27
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	32	$806	408	408	+0	No	$0	06-30 06:33
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	29	$778	380	406	-26	No	-$1	07-11 20:52
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	30	$758	386	386	+0	No	-$1	07-06 06:28
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	28	$722	364	364	+0	No	$0	11-03 15:32
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	24	$718	363	363	+0	No	-$1	09-04 05:58
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	27	$707	374	345	+29	No	+$0	07-10 19:57
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	29	$693	353	353	+0	No	+$0	06-29 19:59
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	24	$598	306	306	+0	open	—	11-05 10:21
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	22	$576	292	292	+0	No	$0	09-30 21:57
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	24	$571	292	292	+0	No	$0	07-03 21:30
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	22	$548	279	279	+0	No	$0	07-04 08:10
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	21	$528	270	270	+0	No	+$0	10-26 08:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	17	$479	241	241	+0	No	$0	09-26 03:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	14	$366	185	185	+0	No	$0	10-27 13:18
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	15	$356	179	179	+0	open	—	11-08 14:42
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	15	$354	179	179	+0	No	$0	09-06 00:57
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	12	$352	177	177	+0	No	$0	08-16 21:03
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	12	$350	176	176	+0	No	+$0	10-29 08:20
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	15	$325	178	149	+29	No	+$0	10-06 11:33
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	10	$290	149	149	+0	open	—	10-24 23:52
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	11	$288	145	145	+0	No	$0	10-20 20:05
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	39	$262	145	119	+26	open	—	11-09 04:03
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	9	$246	123	123	+0	No	+$0	10-16 14:13
trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	10	$245	123	123	+0	No	$0	08-14 12:33
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$242	122	122	+0	No	$0	06-08 07:22
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	9	$233	118	118	+0	No	+$0	09-07 12:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-09 04:03:45	Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x2dd5c1…
11-09 04:03:19	Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xa7ba19…
11-09 02:56:58	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xc77604…
11-08 21:52:58	Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$23	0x5cd4de…
11-08 17:00:43	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xe20821…
11-08 16:54:45	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0xd8558a…
11-08 14:42:33	Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0xdf05e9…
11-08 14:42:31	Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	23	98¢	$23	0xbfdc5f…
11-08 14:42:30	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x8d6bb4…
11-08 09:06:21	Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xba545f…
11-08 05:39:48	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x039d95…
11-08 02:40:30	Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0xe8a5d4…
11-08 00:30:18	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x59dfe9…
11-07 20:59:39	Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0xba5d7c…
11-07 18:50:49	Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xb266ab…
11-07 17:50:33	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0x705493…
11-07 17:44:46	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x5f6e6d…
11-07 17:06:42	Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0xdf6adc…
11-07 14:55:55	Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xefc65d…
11-07 13:02:37	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$25	0x6b99dd…
11-07 11:46:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xcc3ebe…
11-07 08:56:37	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x6ed2bd…
11-07 00:36:31	Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x101759…
11-06 19:50:55	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$25	0x9ebbe1…
11-06 19:04:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xf6e0b5…
11-06 14:21:13	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0xb3ec4a…
11-06 13:27:27	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xc8dc2f…
11-06 12:30:30	Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x51c1f7…
11-06 09:45:33	Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x998f2d…
11-06 07:52:48	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x1b8467…
11-06 06:04:40	Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xe46fcb…
11-06 06:04:40	Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x8082ec…
11-05 19:25:08	Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x839cfa…
11-05 15:09:39	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x1d69f8…
11-05 15:06:07	Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x522ec5…
11-05 11:24:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 5?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x7cdaaf…
11-05 10:21:43	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0xc1769a…
11-05 08:08:39	Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x76e7e5…
11-05 06:45:03	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x13b306…
11-05 06:45:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xf2bc46…
11-05 01:56:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0xa822b6…
11-04 17:13:58	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xaf6de0…
11-04 17:13:57	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xd9739d…
11-04 11:09:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x49c602…
11-04 09:26:33	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xdd3a30…
11-04 08:24:37	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xa69c21…
11-04 06:34:51	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xccb5f1…
11-04 01:46:55	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x176269…
11-03 23:30:49	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x060f2d…
11-03 23:30:39	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x8b6d28…
11-03 22:42:40	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x92775e…
11-03 22:37:40	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x086087…
11-03 22:37:13	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0x386e0a…
11-03 20:11:27	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xe7ad2d…
11-03 20:11:22	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xbdc86d…
11-03 20:11:10	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc9db93…
11-03 20:11:10	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8f65dc…
11-03 20:11:10	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x848469…
11-03 19:56:36	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	23	98¢	$23	0x0b207f…
11-03 19:37:48	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0x449caf…
11-03 18:11:33	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xf24369…
11-03 18:01:06	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xa9391e…
11-03 17:57:00	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xdd1c59…
11-03 15:32:31	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	SELL	25	99¢	$24	0xd5a9ca…
11-03 15:13:00	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x312cc8…
11-03 15:03:28	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x410b4c…
11-03 12:02:49	Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x881bfb…
11-03 11:37:43	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x5107d5…
11-03 09:35:31	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x216d6f…
11-03 08:39:30	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	BUY	25	99¢	$24	0xf8ef60…
11-03 06:32:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x675b97…
11-03 03:34:33	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Ohio?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x2f33e7…
11-03 01:48:04	Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x3ddc20…
11-03 00:14:33	Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x59460a…
11-02 21:32:54	Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x74f3d4…
11-02 20:25:31	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0x79df31…
11-02 20:20:01	Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x4d01c0…
11-02 20:20:00	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Ohio?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x99d9d3…
11-02 20:16:01	Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$24	0xb95bd7…
11-02 19:19:52	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xef5a88…
11-02 17:59:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$26	0xd6c8a1…
11-02 14:14:28	Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xd8fd1c…
11-02 11:13:06	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	25	98¢	$25	0x22827f…
11-02 10:08:51	Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x8bda7c…
11-02 10:00:40	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x788d8e…
11-02 09:53:27	Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$24	0x90c409…
11-02 08:26:39	Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$24	0x2839f4…
11-02 06:18:07	Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xadf833…
11-02 02:49:39	Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xbf4f12…
11-02 02:10:52	Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x6de537…
11-02 00:28:49	Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xf1b6be…
11-01 20:33:25	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0xf2f565…
11-01 16:37:31	Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x747b81…
11-01 15:03:40	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$24	0xbe8f02…
11-01 15:02:58	Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xc7c976…
11-01 14:34:34	Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xda16a1…
11-01 13:22:39	Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x1dbdb2…
11-01 13:10:24	Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$24	0x2fb4fd…
11-01 09:15:54	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xeff591…
11-01 07:35:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x4fb53a…