Wise-Diffuse — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$30

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

36.9%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

373

1,295 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$9.47K

$31.7K lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$101

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 11-05 19:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 74 days

Categories

Politics

32% 49% +$0

Other

31% 43% -$28

Sports

31% 46% +$22

Crypto

6% 69% +$3

Tech

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 26 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+26	$26	100¢	$26	$0	11-05 15:06
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+26	$26	99¢	$26	$0	11-05 19:25
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+25	$25	99¢	$25	$0	11-05 15:09
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+25	$25	98¢	$25	$0	11-05 08:08
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+0	$0	100¢	$0	+$0	10-29 05:01
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	+0	$0	99¢	$0	$0	07-18 17:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	34	$1.0K	518	518	+0	No	$0	10-14 07:06
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	37	$860	439	439	+0	No	$0	07-07 17:06
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	28	$822	414	414	+0	No	$0	10-16 03:27
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	31	$812	415	415	+0	open	—	11-05 01:56
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	32	$806	408	408	+0	No	$0	06-30 06:33
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	29	$778	380	406	-26	No	-$1	07-11 20:52
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	30	$758	386	386	+0	No	-$1	07-06 06:28
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	28	$722	364	364	+0	No	$0	11-03 15:32
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	24	$718	363	363	+0	No	-$1	09-04 05:58
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	27	$707	374	345	+29	No	+$0	07-10 19:57
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	29	$693	353	353	+0	No	+$0	06-29 19:59
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	24	$598	306	306	+0	open	—	11-05 10:21
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	22	$576	292	292	+0	No	$0	09-30 21:57
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	24	$571	292	292	+0	No	$0	07-03 21:30
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	22	$548	279	279	+0	No	$0	07-04 08:10
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	21	$528	270	270	+0	No	+$0	10-26 08:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	17	$479	241	241	+0	No	$0	09-26 03:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	14	$366	185	185	+0	open	—	10-27 13:18
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	15	$354	179	179	+0	No	$0	09-06 00:57
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	12	$352	177	177	+0	No	$0	08-16 21:03
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?	12	$350	176	176	+0	No	+$0	10-29 08:20
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	15	$325	178	149	+29	No	+$0	10-06 11:33
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	10	$290	149	149	+0	open	—	10-24 23:52
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?	11	$288	145	145	+0	No	$0	10-20 20:05
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	12	$281	154	129	+25	open	—	11-05 15:09
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	9	$246	123	123	+0	No	+$0	10-16 14:13
trump out as president by august 31 20260730185655928	10	$245	123	123	+0	No	$0	08-14 12:33
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	10	$242	122	122	+0	No	$0	06-08 07:22
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	38	$236	119	119	+0	open	—	10-06 01:17
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	9	$233	118	118	+0	No	+$0	09-07 12:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 19:25:08	Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x839cfa…
11-05 15:09:39	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x1d69f8…
11-05 15:06:07	Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x522ec5…
11-05 11:24:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 5?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x7cdaaf…
11-05 10:21:43	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0xc1769a…
11-05 08:08:39	Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x76e7e5…
11-05 06:45:03	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x13b306…
11-05 06:45:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xf2bc46…
11-05 01:56:01	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0xa822b6…
11-04 17:13:58	Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xaf6de0…
11-04 17:13:57	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xd9739d…
11-04 11:09:58	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x49c602…
11-04 09:26:33	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xdd3a30…
11-04 08:24:37	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xa69c21…
11-04 06:34:51	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	23	100¢	$23	0xccb5f1…
11-04 01:46:55	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x176269…
11-03 23:30:49	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x060f2d…
11-03 23:30:39	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x8b6d28…
11-03 22:42:40	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x92775e…
11-03 22:37:40	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x086087…
11-03 22:37:13	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$26	0x386e0a…
11-03 20:11:27	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xe7ad2d…
11-03 20:11:22	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?	No	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0xbdc86d…
11-03 20:11:10	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc9db93…
11-03 20:11:10	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8f65dc…
11-03 20:11:10	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Ohio?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x848469…
11-03 19:56:36	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	23	98¢	$23	0x0b207f…
11-03 19:37:48	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0x449caf…
11-03 18:11:33	Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xf24369…
11-03 18:01:06	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xa9391e…
11-03 17:57:00	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xdd1c59…
11-03 15:32:31	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	SELL	25	99¢	$24	0xd5a9ca…
11-03 15:13:00	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x312cc8…
11-03 15:03:28	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x410b4c…
11-03 12:02:49	Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x881bfb…
11-03 11:37:43	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x5107d5…
11-03 09:35:31	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$26	0x216d6f…
11-03 08:39:30	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	BUY	25	99¢	$24	0xf8ef60…
11-03 06:32:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x675b97…
11-03 03:34:33	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Ohio?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x2f33e7…
11-03 01:48:04	Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x3ddc20…
11-03 00:14:33	Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x59460a…
11-02 21:32:54	Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x74f3d4…
11-02 20:25:31	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0x79df31…
11-02 20:20:01	Will Republicans win Kansas and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x4d01c0…
11-02 20:20:00	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Ohio?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x99d9d3…
11-02 20:16:01	Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$24	0xb95bd7…
11-02 19:19:52	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xef5a88…
11-02 17:59:22	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$26	0xd6c8a1…
11-02 14:14:28	Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0xd8fd1c…
11-02 11:13:06	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	25	98¢	$25	0x22827f…
11-02 10:08:51	Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x8bda7c…
11-02 10:00:40	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x788d8e…
11-02 09:53:27	Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$24	0x90c409…
11-02 08:26:39	Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$24	0x2839f4…
11-02 06:18:07	Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xadf833…
11-02 02:49:39	Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xbf4f12…
11-02 02:10:52	Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x6de537…
11-02 00:28:49	Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xf1b6be…
11-01 20:33:25	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0xf2f565…
11-01 16:37:31	Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x747b81…
11-01 15:03:40	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$24	0xbe8f02…
11-01 15:02:58	Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0xc7c976…
11-01 14:34:34	Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xda16a1…
11-01 13:22:39	Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x1dbdb2…
11-01 13:10:24	Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$24	0x2fb4fd…
11-01 09:15:54	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xeff591…
11-01 07:35:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	25	98¢	$24	0x4fb53a…
11-01 02:17:04	Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x300af2…
11-01 02:16:33	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$24	0x75a520…
10-31 23:35:39	Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x1b263a…
10-31 23:16:00	Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	22	98¢	$22	0x3d0959…
10-31 21:41:42	Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xa04e37…
10-31 16:55:12	Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x109f50…
10-31 14:56:21	Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xa58e47…
10-31 14:55:01	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xabbde2…
10-31 14:48:52	Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x577bc1…
10-31 11:56:25	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x67e342…
10-31 11:07:31	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x80c5ab…
10-31 08:14:01	Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	23	98¢	$23	0xc43985…
10-31 07:25:13	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x70c1f0…
10-31 04:40:22	Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in October?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x261a8a…
10-31 02:01:58	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xcf7402…
10-30 21:05:31	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x1783e5…
10-30 20:48:12	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	98¢	$24	0xb87a25…
10-30 19:22:19	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0x3266b8…
10-30 18:17:27	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x67ddc9…
10-30 17:14:37	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xe45871…
10-30 15:20:54	Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in October?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xb812f4…
10-30 15:10:52	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x18333c…
10-30 14:23:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x368d5d…
10-30 11:37:48	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x2243dc…
10-30 11:03:25	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x17a7eb…
10-30 11:03:24	Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0x877966…
10-30 09:35:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 30?	Yes	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x458240…
10-30 06:36:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 30?	Yes	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x3b37bd…
10-30 05:28:31	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xcec16c…
10-30 00:36:21	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0x831ea1…
10-29 22:40:01	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x226a0a…
10-29 21:24:28	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0xf4cc9f…