Thirsty-Landform — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$355

Unrealized P&L

-$265

Hit rate

53.9%

Resolved

491

Trades

2,479

lifetime

Volume

$58.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$947

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-13 02:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 144 days

Categories

Other

49% 30% -$216

Politics

27% 41% -$50

Crypto

18% 53% +$98

Sports

5% 15% -$189

Tech

1% 38% +$4

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	-434	-$221	95¢	$-411	-$189	10-21 08:51
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	+296	$231	87¢	$257	+$26	11-13 02:25
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	-169	-$96	95¢	$-161	-$65	09-26 18:03
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	+132	$100	77¢	$101	+$1	10-30 08:02
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	+52	$26	29¢	$15	-$11	11-13 02:34
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	+96	$29	1¢	$1	-$28	11-12 07:08
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	+92	$2	0¢	$0	-$2	11-04 09:12
Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder?	Yes	+14	$1	2¢	$0	-$1	09-03 23:39
Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Yes	+18	-$3	0¢	$0	+$3	11-12 07:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	17	$3.2K	1,624	1,624	+0	Yes	-$9	02-06 03:38
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	66	$2.2K	2,183	2,183	-0	open	—	10-12 10:23
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	44	$1.6K	1,298	1,298	+0	open	—	10-16 04:46
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	33	$1.4K	1,004	1,438	-434	open	—	10-21 08:51
Rainbow FDV above $400M one day after launch?	6	$1.2K	613	613	+0	No	+$2	02-05 18:28
will elon musk tweet about hyperliquid by december 31 2026	43	$1.2K	795	795	+0	open	—	06-08 22:34
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 580plus	26	$1.1K	2,456	1,702	+754	No	-$459	01-13 16:13
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	29	$748	736	736	+0	open	—	10-23 06:06
donald trump of truth social posts february 6 february 13 100 119	12	$668	589	589	+0	No	-$4	02-12 16:35
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	10	$663	636	618	+18	Yes	+$33	02-22 14:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	13	$653	381	381	+0	No	+$29	05-27 02:39
elon musk of tweets january 17 january 19 140 164	9	$652	524	374	+150	No	-$12	01-19 16:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	15	$644	454	454	+0	No	+$4	05-28 14:42
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 540 559	26	$606	1,721	1,062	+659	Yes	+$548	01-13 16:50
will base launch a token by june 30 2027	33	$600	618	618	+0	open	—	08-17 02:20
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027?	7	$599	390	390	+0	open	—	10-06 01:38
elon musk of tweets january 15 january 17 215 239	6	$591	304	304	+0	No	-$9	01-17 16:38
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	22	$588	1,017	517	+500	Yes	+$9	06-17 06:56
will elon musk tweet about hyperliquid by november 30 2026	10	$583	374	374	+0	open	—	06-09 14:40
donald trump of truth social posts february 6 february 13 200plus	26	$576	866	595	+271	No	+$3	02-11 15:20
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	14	$573	894	1,275	-381	Yes	-$213	07-19 21:57
donald trump of truth social posts february 6 february 13 140 159	41	$565	602	602	+0	No	+$8	02-13 10:56
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	21	$565	904	404	+500	No	+$43	06-03 05:47
donald trump of truth social posts february 13 february 20 160 179	10	$555	377	377	+0	No	-$17	02-20 01:10
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 540 559	10	$554	582	445	+137	No	-$182	01-06 16:55
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 560 579	9	$552	632	632	+0	Yes	+$92	01-09 16:09
elon musk of tweets january 9 january 16 540 559	8	$551	744	227	+518	Yes	+$23	01-16 16:54
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	25	$547	446	385	+62	Yes	+$69	07-07 19:13
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 520 539	18	$533	634	467	+167	Yes	+$184	01-06 16:22
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?	6	$531	364	532	-169	open	—	09-26 18:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-13 02:34:43	Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x2bd889…
11-13 02:34:21	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	SELL	43	13¢	$5	0x330d32…
11-13 02:26:54	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	BUY	19	13¢	$2	0x14f4ff…
11-13 02:26:31	Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	21	34¢	$7	0x27bede…
11-13 02:25:09	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0x70ad1c…
11-13 02:09:51	Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0x7454c4…
11-13 02:09:36	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0xa50d84…
11-13 02:08:39	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0xa8a583…
11-12 07:14:49	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0xb719b0…
11-12 07:13:39	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	27	3¢	$1	0x0138e7…
11-12 07:08:27	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xfbb850…
11-12 07:07:31	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0x09421e…
11-12 05:54:12	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	12¢	$4	0xb8c8d3…
11-12 05:53:55	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x78d137…
11-12 05:53:00	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x1b6246…
11-12 05:52:27	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0x5c97e0…
11-09 11:09:18	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x92561e…
11-08 23:39:07	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	37¢	$8	0x12b39a…
11-08 23:38:43	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	9	72¢	$6	0x50ef06…
11-07 08:37:27	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x52c728…
11-07 08:30:01	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	22	23¢	$5	0x52c179…
11-07 08:28:15	Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x8ba192…
11-07 08:28:03	Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xa4ecaa…
11-07 06:13:31	Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x739f1c…
11-07 06:13:03	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	25	83¢	$21	0x471d16…
11-06 20:21:54	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0xec98d0…
11-06 20:20:12	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0x933b40…
11-05 09:55:55	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x953284…
11-05 06:41:54	Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	86	58¢	$50	0x1b7ebb…
11-05 05:41:22	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	55¢	$12	0x84b3c1…
11-04 12:04:25	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	26¢	$4	0xb97bda…
11-04 09:12:33	Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x047522…
11-04 09:12:16	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	92	1¢	$1	0x86c328…
11-04 06:44:46	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0xb27421…
11-04 06:42:27	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	33	40¢	$13	0x3fce36…
11-04 06:41:13	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	126	79¢	$100	0x610a8d…
11-04 06:40:58	Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	108	92¢	$99	0xd818a1…
11-04 01:19:03	Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x948103…
11-04 01:17:57	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	154	97¢	$149	0x27f444…
11-03 00:21:51	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	61	83¢	$51	0x14b9ae…
11-02 06:07:34	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x021412…
11-01 12:30:04	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	78¢	$31	0x0c039d…
11-01 12:18:21	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$0	0x5e710d…
11-01 07:58:31	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x7dcd04…
11-01 07:55:09	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	69¢	$18	0xe219da…
10-30 08:02:13	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	110	77¢	$85	0xb3aaf8…
10-30 08:01:51	Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	112	94¢	$105	0x6afa8a…
10-30 05:15:04	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	21	77¢	$16	0x80f71c…
10-30 01:34:48	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	7¢	$1	0xd785cb…
10-30 01:23:37	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x4c4c00…
10-29 09:56:44	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x82d566…
10-29 09:56:26	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	SELL	31	67¢	$21	0xde10cd…
10-29 09:53:04	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x64e958…
10-29 08:30:25	Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	112	90¢	$100	0x1320e8…
10-29 08:29:38	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	110	94¢	$104	0x010544…
10-29 08:23:16	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x283698…
10-29 04:04:26	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x6eb490…
10-28 13:12:40	Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x66726e…
10-28 11:59:47	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x859e49…
10-28 10:23:16	Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x3ed887…
10-28 07:43:22	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	145	69¢	$100	0xd2b948…
10-28 06:56:59	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	65	46¢	$30	0x682f6a…
10-26 22:30:45	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x5eec77…
10-26 06:50:36	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	154	65¢	$100	0xc1ca1f…
10-26 06:35:45	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	74	4¢	$3	0x559311…
10-26 06:34:53	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	63	78¢	$49	0xa0ab58…
10-26 06:34:39	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	45	81¢	$36	0x97b6b4…
10-26 03:53:15	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xf64006…
10-25 22:17:26	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x4be521…
10-25 05:22:29	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	125	71¢	$89	0xf23b87…
10-24 07:45:51	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf58ac8…
10-23 06:07:08	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x2273be…
10-23 06:06:29	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	29	9¢	$3	0xfc4a61…
10-23 02:24:53	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x067b96…
10-21 12:21:44	Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	17	36¢	$6	0xd77e0c…
10-21 11:18:44	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	113	2¢	$2	0x640d9c…
10-21 08:53:06	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x0f2032…
10-21 08:51:20	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	121	90¢	$109	0xdc0bad…
10-21 08:50:47	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x11c078…
10-21 03:12:20	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	126	27¢	$34	0xc5db37…
10-21 03:12:12	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	113	83¢	$94	0x9da848…
10-18 03:08:48	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	108	83¢	$89	0x388abf…
10-17 18:52:26	LoL: MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	FURIA Esports	BUY	74	38¢	$28	0xcbe409…
10-17 18:47:41	LoL: MVK Esports vs FURIA Esports (BO5) - Worlds Play-In	MVK Esports	SELL	12	62¢	$8	0x71fcf2…
10-17 12:41:45	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x4fc2ba…
10-17 11:24:09	Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	110	92¢	$101	0x0845ba…
10-17 11:18:08	lol fox1 we 2026 10 17	Team WE	SELL	118	13¢	$15	0x92af14…
10-17 11:14:38	lol mvk fur 2026 10 17	MVK Esports	BUY	12	38¢	$5	0x60521f…
10-17 10:00:17	lol fox1 we 2026 10 17	Team WE	BUY	118	17¢	$20	0x034fcf…
10-16 09:16:19	lol mvk kc 2026 10 16	MVK Esports	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x5db44c…
10-16 09:14:31	lol mvk kc 2026 10 16	MVK Esports	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xd8599c…
10-16 04:47:06	Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0x96b7cc…
10-16 04:46:43	Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	122	89¢	$109	0xb1b2a4…
10-16 02:21:03	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x21697d…
10-15 14:04:34	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	87¢	$99	0x45bbbf…
10-15 14:03:47	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	87	2¢	$2	0x234d1b…
10-15 13:56:58	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	125	81¢	$101	0xb2592c…
10-14 08:15:31	Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	22¢	$2	0x579192…
10-13 14:10:07	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x0d02aa…
10-13 14:09:10	Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	110	96¢	$106	0xa8e127…