Subtle-Migrant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.9%

Resolved

180

Trades

245

lifetime

Volume

$319

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-14

last 08-31 14:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Other

40% 57% -$6

Crypto

21% 51% +$5

Politics

21% 58% -$16

Sports

16% 60% +$1

Tech

1% 50% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$15	29	29	+0	No	+$5	07-05 21:33
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	1	$10	20	0	+20	Yes	+$10	06-02 20:37
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$9	13	0	+13	No	-$9	05-15 15:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	3	$7	11	11	+0	Down	+$3	06-15 15:33
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$6	24	24	+0	Yes	-$2	07-01 06:22
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	1	$5	10	0	+10	Yes	+$5	06-02 20:36
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	1	$5	12	0	+12	Spain	-$5	07-19 17:26
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	1	$5	7	0	+7	Yes	-$5	07-19 17:26
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	1	$5	7	0	+7	Yes	+$2	06-02 20:37
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5	8	0	+8	Yes	+$3	06-02 21:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-13 21:05 UTC	2	$5	6	6	+0	Down	+$3	06-13 21:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 08:00 UTC	2	$5	14	14	+0	Down	+$3	06-14 08:03
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	3	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	08-17 14:26
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$4	24	24	+0	No	$0	07-05 16:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 05:55 UTC	2	$3	2	2	+0	Down	+$1	07-28 05:58
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	3	$3	11	11	+0	No	-$1	08-17 14:26
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$3	17	17	+0	No	+$1	07-06 05:38
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?	1	$3	10	0	+10	Yes	-$3	06-02 20:42
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$3	4	4	+0	Yes	+$1	07-06 05:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-14 07:55 UTC	2	$2	11	11	+0	Up	+$0	06-14 07:59
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	2	$2	3	3	+0	open	—	08-17 14:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	2	$2	5	5	+0	Up	+$0	06-03 14:53
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	08-31 14:52
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$2	2	2	+0	Yes	+$0	08-17 14:26
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	08-31 14:52
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	08-31 14:53
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	08-31 14:54
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	2	$2	2	2	+0	Yes	+$0	08-31 14:54
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	08-31 14:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 19:20 UTC	2	$2	2	2	+0	Down	+$0	06-17 19:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-31 14:54:25	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xaf3e0c…
08-31 14:54:18	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x69cec4…
08-31 14:54:09	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xc119a9…
08-31 14:53:55	Over $3.5B crypto hack value in 2026?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xb1dd04…
08-31 14:53:43	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0xfc5861…
08-31 14:53:25	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xa76826…
08-31 14:53:15	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x31026a…
08-31 14:52:52	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x4e8a38…
08-31 14:52:37	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xe40dcc…
08-29 06:55:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-29 06:55 UTC	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x6aaa03…
08-27 17:16:34	Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?	No	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x32068a…
08-27 17:16:19	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	1	65¢	$1	0x3746dd…
08-27 17:16:04	Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0xa9ca2f…
08-17 14:27:51	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0x70713b…
08-17 14:27:27	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x8098ed…
08-17 14:27:24	Will Valve add first CS2 operation by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x835904…
08-17 14:27:21	Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xdaa7e5…
08-17 14:27:19	Over $3B crypto hack value in 2026?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x2a07e1…
08-17 14:27:16	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xd91b2a…
08-17 14:27:10	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xf65b1d…
08-17 14:26:57	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	3	52¢	$1	0xc4989a…
08-17 14:26:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xb2e635…
08-17 14:26:31	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	11	12¢	$1	0x84da6d…
08-17 14:26:28	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xc5aa84…
08-01 04:35:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 04:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x8f9986…
07-28 05:58:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 05:55 UTC	Down	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x7edddb…
07-28 05:55:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-28 05:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x2ef6bf…
07-19 17:26:18	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x38170f…
07-19 17:26:06	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x0e53d3…
07-12 00:25:52	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xcdb46a…
07-12 00:25:44	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 btts	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x882b35…
07-12 00:25:38	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x7bae2b…
07-11 20:31:07	Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xc82f67…
07-11 20:30:49	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x6e6f19…
07-11 20:30:31	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 btts	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x9eaa1b…
07-11 20:30:28	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd91a65…
07-11 20:30:14	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xba2446…
07-10 06:48:40	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x4223d7…
07-10 06:47:46	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xff3957…
07-06 09:41:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-06 09:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x304a3f…
07-06 05:38:29	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0xe984bc…
07-06 05:38:05	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	17	12¢	$2	0x67088c…
07-05 21:33:47	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	29	34¢	$10	0xbb7f73…
07-05 16:57:55	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	24	7¢	$2	0x1813ae…
07-02 11:42:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 11:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xfe6d39…
07-01 20:26:41	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xbdbadd…
07-01 20:25:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xe57b42…
07-01 20:24:53	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xbcd3e0…
07-01 20:24:40	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xc02ca8…
07-01 06:41:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-01 06:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x147b1a…
07-01 06:35:10	fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x9f3f88…
07-01 06:34:46	fifwc usa bih 2026 07 01 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x380a49…
07-01 06:34:25	Will United States win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xee63d0…
07-01 06:33:59	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x7dcc4c…
07-01 06:22:40	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	24	10¢	$2	0x942634…
06-30 18:59:26	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x149505…
06-30 18:59:19	will donald trump publicly insult jimmy kimmel by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xa8f499…
06-30 18:55:19	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xcf562a…
06-30 18:54:20	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x998934…
06-30 18:54:08	will belgium reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149733	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xd0ab0f…
06-30 18:54:05	will switzerland reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149714	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x750e7c…
06-30 18:53:56	will mexico reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149709	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xc06b31…
06-30 18:53:52	will portugal reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149749	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xcb6775…
06-30 18:52:49	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 btts	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xa67481…
06-30 18:52:40	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xa2b363…
06-30 18:51:25	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xa813f9…
06-30 18:50:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 18:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x65e174…
06-30 13:01:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xe17eff…
06-30 13:00:20	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xe67d34…
06-30 12:59:38	israel withdraws from lebanon by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xb86ef4…
06-30 12:59:32	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x254159…
06-30 12:59:14	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x96ec5a…
06-30 12:58:58	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xbccaec…
06-30 12:58:37	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x7a2147…
06-30 12:05:26	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x9cf952…
06-30 12:05:01	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xce98b9…
06-30 12:04:08	Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x77154a…
06-30 12:03:49	Will England win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x529ad3…
06-30 12:03:37	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x7df9c1…
06-30 12:03:29	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xb21633…
06-30 12:02:16	Will France vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xb40aa5…
06-30 12:01:56	Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x6660b4…
06-28 04:46:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 04:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xebae48…
06-22 16:05:35	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0xf64709…
06-21 14:24:20	fifwc esp ksa 2026 06 21 btts	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x516ffc…
06-21 14:24:17	Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xb5b882…
06-20 22:28:38	Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x51c4e8…
06-20 22:24:37	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x2f8236…
06-20 22:23:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 22:20 UTC	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x8238ab…
06-20 22:15:07	Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	No	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xb8c224…
06-20 22:14:31	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 btts	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xf69193…
06-20 22:14:23	fifwc arg aut 2026 06 22 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xaa8044…
06-20 18:27:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 18:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xe2cfb8…
06-20 10:52:43	Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x627386…
06-20 10:52:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-20 10:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xd812b5…
06-18 20:08:52	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xad480c…
06-18 20:08:37	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x389f0a…
06-18 20:08:07	Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xf4be8e…
06-18 11:10:34	fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x5250d0…
06-18 11:09:44	Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x18ac9f…