Realized P&L
-$2.66K
Unrealized P&L
-$595
Hit rate
44.5%
Resolved
126
Trades
2,950
lifetime
Volume
$301.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$102
Open exposure
$3.49K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-17
last 10-28 21:39
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 56 days
Categories
Other
63% 32% -$1,873
Politics
28% 43% -$634
Tech
6% 20% -$165
Crypto
2% 60% +$23
Sports
1% 0% -$5
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$7
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 70 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +2,550 $1,084 39¢ $989 -$94 10-25 17:40
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +720 $474 62¢ $443 -$31 10-28 19:45
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,120 $424 15¢ $307 -$117 10-27 18:05
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +611 $355 44¢ $266 -$89 10-27 11:00
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +393 $251 64¢ $253 +$2 10-28 17:28
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? No +1,139 $205 20¢ $233 +$28 10-28 18:10
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? Yes +4,782 $92 4¢ $179 +$88 10-28 15:59
another fed rate hike in 2026 Yes +203 $156 80¢ $161 +$5 10-28 19:06
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31? No +176 $113 64¢ $113 $0 10-28 20:01
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027? Yes +156 $103 64¢ $99 -$4 10-23 15:19
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Yes +295 $166 34¢ $99 -$68 10-19 10:25
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No +1,980 $212 4¢ $70 -$142 09-04 10:12
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? Yes +479 $105 11¢ $54 -$51 10-22 16:47
lindsay clancy convicted of murder Yes +1,326 $99 4¢ $51 -$48 09-05 07:56
Viktor Orbán arrested by...? Yes +345 $70 14¢ $50 -$20 10-24 21:09
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by March 31, 2027? Yes +206 $70 24¢ $48 -$22 10-20 12:09
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? No +95 $45 36¢ $34 -$11 10-19 09:37
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +52 $23 42¢ $21 -$1 10-28 17:41
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +72 $19 22¢ $16 -$3 10-28 18:00
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? Yes +76 $14 8¢ $6 -$8 09-19 01:22
Will ANSEM be the first to hit a $1B FDV? Yes +346 $17 0¢ $1 -$16 09-08 12:29
Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election? Yes +0 -$1 82¢ $0 +$1 10-27 23:33
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +0 -$25 99¢ $0 +$25 09-22 00:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +0 -$39 88¢ $0 +$39 09-25 16:39
us government removes public access to a major chinese ai model in 2026 20260703203328223 No +0 $0 84¢ $0 +$0 10-19 19:03
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No +0 $0 50¢ $0 $0 08-01 10:11
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +0 $0 90¢ $0 +$0 08-04 09:07
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +0 $0 96¢ $0 $0 09-21 05:40
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +0 $7 98¢ $0 -$7 09-10 16:03
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? No +0 $50 96¢ $0 -$50 10-05 19:45