Smug-Avalanche — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$723

Unrealized P&L

-$439

Hit rate

75.8%

Resolved

Trades

298

lifetime

Volume

$277.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$931

Open exposure

$561

1 position

First seen

2026-01-09

last 07-20 13:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

69% 67% $-723

Other

20% — —

Sports

6% — —

Crypto

4% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+4,676	$1,000	12¢	$561	$-439	06-03 16:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	38	$30.0K	18,242	18,242	+0	open	—	04-23 03:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	6	$26.6K	14,339	14,339	+0	open	—	04-22 04:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	4	$20.9K	10,990	10,990	+0	No	+$880	05-10 20:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	12	$16.8K	24,510	7,118	+17,393	open	—	06-16 12:37
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	3	$12.0K	10,095	2,019	+8,076	open	—	02-28 13:55
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	12	$10.2K	5,208	5,208	+0	open	—	03-14 00:26
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	1	$10.0K	9,997	0	+9,997	open	—	02-18 14:45
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	8	$8.9K	4,872	4,872	+0	open	—	03-28 20:25
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	3	$8.1K	4,211	4,211	+0	open	—	04-16 13:31
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	2	$7.8K	4,810	4,810	+0	open	—	01-16 01:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	5	$7.5K	6,955	1,100	+5,855	open	—	06-14 08:13
trump out as president by march 31	2	$7.4K	3,766	3,766	+0	open	—	03-11 12:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	4	$7.3K	10,046	10,046	+0	Yes	$-1,687	04-27 05:39
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$5.7K	7,695	4,584	+3,111	open	—	02-28 06:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	5	$4.8K	3,698	4,955	-1,256	open	—	06-16 12:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	3	$4.2K	2,420	2,420	+0	open	—	05-25 12:04
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	5	$4.2K	2,222	2,222	+0	open	—	03-16 03:40
Netanyahu out by April 30?	4	$4.0K	2,082	2,082	+0	open	—	04-17 13:23
will france win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	2	$4.0K	2,002	2,002	+0	open	—	02-16 22:54
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	3	$3.4K	4,164	4,164	+0	open	—	06-14 17:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$3.3K	2,571	1,351	+1,220	open	—	05-31 14:44
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$3.2K	5,074	0	+5,074	open	—	02-28 13:55
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	1	$3.1K	3,067	0	+3,067	open	—	02-25 22:09
ukraine calls a referendum on peace deal with russia by january 31	2	$3.0K	3,023	0	+3,023	open	—	01-26 12:12
us strikes iran by february 10 2026	1	$3.0K	2,966	0	+2,966	open	—	02-10 23:10
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	7	$2.3K	1,177	1,177	+0	open	—	05-25 09:46
ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	2	$2.2K	0	2,287	-2,287	open	—	06-05 20:45
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	2	$2.2K	1,176	1,176	+0	open	—	02-22 12:58
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$2.1K	1,136	1,136	+0	open	—	06-28 07:21
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	2	$2.1K	1,266	1,266	+0	open	—	03-10 12:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 19:21:42	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 31 2026 20260716190353339	No	BUY	1,165	86¢	$1,000	0x514f6a…
07-21 19:18:48	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 24 2026 20260716190353338	No	BUY	319	94¢	$300	0xf9a0bc…
07-21 19:16:34	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	BUY	542	92¢	$500	0xad2b5f…
07-20 13:12:03	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 31 2026 20260716190353339	No	BUY	584	86¢	$500	0x0bfbfe…
06-28 12:11:59	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	566	88¢	$500	0x2fa31c…
06-28 07:21:07	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1,136	99¢	$1,125	0x7ff606…
06-27 16:47:01	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	315	99¢	$312	0x4fd30b…
06-27 15:58:46	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0xfe2126…
06-27 11:23:04	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	214	99¢	$212	0xe2d892…
06-16 12:37:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	5,585	1¢	$54	0x09c5ed…
06-16 12:37:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,056	1¢	$14	0x9724b2…
06-16 12:35:57	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	5,000	1¢	$50	0x05f295…
06-15 11:22:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1,000	12¢	$119	0x5ac8ba…
06-14 19:38:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,642	61¢	$1,002	0x2a8ea1…
06-14 17:52:58	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	SELL	739	28¢	$206	0x130f7f…
06-14 17:52:33	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	SELL	676	38¢	$257	0x36ca3e…
06-14 17:44:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	4,164	35¢	$1,437	0x75d9a3…
06-14 17:13:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	2,502	81¢	$2,018	0xa27def…
06-14 16:12:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	552	93¢	$513	0x23ccd6…
06-14 08:13:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	2,694	37¢	$1,000	0x6723f7…
06-14 08:13:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,100	93¢	$1,025	0xa17c25…
06-14 07:57:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	2,758	75¢	$2,074	0x05420f…
06-12 12:36:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,191	84¢	$1,000	0x8a8fe1…
06-10 19:54:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	1,357	97¢	$1,317	0x9eb737…
06-09 14:27:16	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	BUY	19	94¢	$18	0x3dae86…
06-09 14:26:55	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	BUY	540	94¢	$508	0x3185c2…
06-09 11:17:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5,319	94¢	$5,000	0x3ca786…
06-09 06:55:24	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,250	8¢	$100	0x72225e…
06-08 09:09:43	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	967	37¢	$361	0xcf1702…
06-07 18:48:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	543	92¢	$500	0x24a55f…
06-07 14:54:33	dota2 ty lgd 2026 06 07	Team Yandex	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x84656d…
06-07 14:54:22	dota2 ty lgd 2026 06 07	Team Yandex	SELL	49	75¢	$37	0x181abb…
06-07 14:52:12	dota2 ty lgd 2026 06 07	Team Yandex	SELL	90	75¢	$67	0x9d910b…
06-07 14:35:15	dota2 ty lgd 2026 06 07	Team Yandex	BUY	149	67¢	$100	0x269335…
06-07 09:24:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	543	92¢	$500	0xdba437…
06-07 00:02:51	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	SELL	533	99¢	$528	0x8681ee…
06-06 19:26:10	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	549	91¢	$500	0xe59d6d…
06-06 13:54:27	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	496	64¢	$317	0xb25d75…
06-06 13:21:27	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	19	64¢	$12	0x345c9d…
06-06 13:20:57	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0x9cf888…
06-06 13:15:34	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x7c6c3d…
06-06 13:15:31	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x4ed5ef…
06-06 13:06:40	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0x058786…
06-06 13:06:10	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	64¢	$3	0x1263f4…
06-06 13:00:09	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	34	64¢	$22	0xfd1c38…
06-06 12:59:51	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x280b25…
06-06 12:59:42	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x240761…
06-06 12:59:31	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0x440117…
06-06 12:59:31	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x1d58e6…
06-06 11:55:31	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	148	64¢	$95	0xbbb271…
06-06 11:48:06	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x623bae…
06-06 11:47:55	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x31c28e…
06-05 20:45:55	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	No	SELL	1,761	96¢	$1,691	0xb301aa…
06-04 08:10:01	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	No	SELL	526	96¢	$505	0xc2717b…
06-03 16:50:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	263	88¢	$231	0xfe522e…
06-03 16:45:24	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	BUY	538	93¢	$500	0xd62db5…
06-03 16:39:46	Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,676	21¢	$1,000	0x2e5d2f…
06-03 16:28:46	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	552	91¢	$500	0x00edf5…
06-03 16:20:13	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	BUY	739	68¢	$500	0x3658e9…
06-03 16:19:39	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	No	BUY	676	74¢	$500	0xdbe3f0…
06-03 16:07:39	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,134	88¢	$1,000	0xf06c97…
06-03 15:53:21	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	533	94¢	$500	0xb371eb…
06-03 15:28:42	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	549	91¢	$500	0xff9d1c…
06-03 12:03:02	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	1,471	68¢	$1,000	0x5cdc8c…
06-03 12:02:14	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	BUY	538	93¢	$500	0xa17ff8…
06-03 12:01:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1,154	88¢	$1,015	0xf76750…
06-03 12:00:43	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	448	89¢	$400	0x0c794b…
06-03 11:59:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	3,606	88¢	$3,173	0x7c964a…
06-03 11:57:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3,955	76¢	$3,006	0x0d14ac…
06-03 11:33:39	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	107	90¢	$96	0x2886d4…
06-01 21:37:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2,323	86¢	$1,998	0x98f1ff…
06-01 14:56:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	377	80¢	$301	0x38eb24…
06-01 14:55:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	623	80¢	$499	0x23e7b8…
06-01 05:20:58	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,136	88¢	$1,000	0x104825…
06-01 01:14:46	Will Trump say "Cat" in May?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$7	0x5a6541…
05-31 17:48:20	Will Trump say "Cat" in May?	No	SELL	48	99¢	$47	0x0c6ca0…
05-31 14:44:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,351	99¢	$1,338	0xe3cf86…
05-30 09:31:23	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	SELL	527	99¢	$522	0x0f268e…
05-29 20:24:12	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	4,889	76¢	$3,716	0x3e62a4…
05-29 09:16:14	Will the Powerball jackpot hit $1 billion by July 31?	No	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x562909…
05-26 19:15:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,351	74¢	$1,000	0x3ca29b…
05-25 12:04:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	2,420	92¢	$2,227	0xa3c748…
05-25 09:46:38	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	SELL	89	98¢	$87	0x8f2d4f…
05-25 01:07:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	299	99¢	$296	0xf47c50…
05-24 14:43:02	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	No	SELL	545	98¢	$534	0x980892…
05-24 14:18:11	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$6	0x73324b…
05-24 00:16:59	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	SELL	137	99¢	$136	0x9efec1…
05-23 18:27:39	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	546	90¢	$494	0x58296c…
05-23 18:03:09	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$15	0x21494c…
05-23 17:56:22	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	BUY	112	90¢	$100	0xf1b3ab…
05-23 17:29:25	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	1,048	98¢	$1,029	0x89c278…
05-23 15:59:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1,333	75¢	$1,000	0xf39302…
05-23 13:43:33	Will Trump say "Cat" in May?	No	BUY	129	77¢	$100	0xffda10…
05-23 13:33:17	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x4ae11e…
05-23 13:04:49	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	527	95¢	$500	0x7dccea…
05-23 11:09:22	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	No	SELL	1,066	100¢	$1,061	0xcd1736…
05-23 03:19:42	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	SELL	613	99¢	$607	0x1abfc2…
05-22 22:51:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0x92d2fc…
05-22 22:46:05	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	BUY	613	90¢	$550	0xebf4ba…
05-22 22:45:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0xe84639…