Wary-Tragedy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$689

Unrealized P&L

-$50

Hit rate

89.2%

Resolved

Trades

2,486

lifetime

Volume

$625.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$251

Open exposure

$184

1 position

First seen

2026-04-10

last 06-08 08:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Other

91% 40% $-535

Crypto

7% 33% $-155

Sports

1% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 440 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes		+3,350	$235	6¢	$184	$-50	06-08 08:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in seoul on april 15 2026 21corhigher	190	$67.0K	38,165	39,552	-1,387	open	—	04-15 04:55
highest temperature in seoul on april 15 2026 20c	57	$38.9K	22,050	21,908	+142	open	—	04-15 05:54
highest temperature in seoul on april 13 2026 23corhigher	33	$37.0K	38,993	0	+38,993	open	—	04-13 05:16
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 240 259	8	$29.4K	15,277	14,972	+305	open	—	04-21 15:37
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 280 299	4	$19.7K	10,000	9,988	+12	open	—	04-24 07:42
highest temperature in seoul on april 17 2026 17c	141	$17.5K	17,622	13,876	+3,746	open	—	04-17 08:54
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Zakharova vs Dayana Yastremska	10	$14.2K	11,051	11,051	+0	Anastasia Zakharova	+$406	05-05 16:30
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	8	$13.0K	11,371	2,564	+8,807	open	—	04-28 10:44
highest temperature in seoul on april 14 2026 24corhigher	43	$11.8K	13,142	200	+12,942	open	—	04-14 05:20
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	6	$11.6K	5,941	5,931	+9	open	—	04-27 06:02
highest temperature in seoul on april 17 2026 18corhigher	191	$9.9K	13,284	10,009	+3,275	open	—	04-17 08:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	1	$9.9K	10,000	0	+10,000	open	—	05-25 08:04
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 220 239	7	$9.6K	28,392	4,982	+23,409	open	—	04-24 15:51
highest temperature in tokyo on april 11 2026 22c	8	$8.9K	4,500	4,497	+3	open	—	04-11 04:03
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 April 27-May 3?	2	$8.8K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	05-02 02:32
highest temperature in chengdu on april 11 2026 28c	10	$8.5K	4,300	4,296	+4	open	—	04-11 11:15
highest temperature in chicago on april 10 2026 48 49f	4	$8.0K	4,000	3,998	+2	open	—	04-10 19:56
highest temperature in tel aviv on april 10 2026 22c	3	$7.9K	4,000	3,996	+4	open	—	04-10 16:32
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	5	$7.9K	4,000	3,996	+4	open	—	04-27 04:39
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	6	$7.7K	4,000	3,972	+28	open	—	04-28 09:12
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	6	$7.1K	3,736	3,724	+12	open	—	04-28 08:27
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	5	$6.8K	6,051	984	+5,067	open	—	04-28 10:45
highest temperature in tokyo on april 12 2026 23corhigher	10	$6.7K	7,000	0	+7,000	open	—	04-12 05:11
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	3	$6.7K	3,440	3,433	+7	open	—	04-27 10:13
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	5	$6.7K	6,213	762	+5,451	open	—	04-28 10:44
highest temperature in seattle on april 11 2026 58 59f	2	$5.8K	3,000	2,992	+8	open	—	04-12 04:26
highest temperature in nyc on april 13 2026 76 77f	86	$5.8K	6,217	300	+5,917	open	—	04-13 20:52
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	3	$5.8K	3,600	3,000	+600	open	—	04-29 16:26
highest temperature in seoul on april 13 2026 22c	4	$5.6K	6,000	0	+6,000	open	—	04-13 05:01
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	4	$5.5K	8,000	0	+8,000	open	—	04-29 11:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 08:56:34	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	3,350	7¢	$235	0x34e4fe…
05-25 08:39:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	97¢	$971	0x85c0ec…
05-25 08:33:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	218	40¢	$88	0xcc8198…
05-25 08:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xad51b3…
05-25 08:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0xa7c5e5…
05-25 08:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0xa159d3…
05-25 08:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	94	33¢	$31	0x118613…
05-25 08:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xfac6b6…
05-25 08:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	33¢	$0	0xf1d848…
05-25 08:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	0	33¢	$0	0xccd640…
05-25 08:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0xbbc964…
05-25 08:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	0	33¢	$0	0xb791a4…
05-25 08:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x99b3dc…
05-25 08:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	46	33¢	$15	0x978d35…
05-25 08:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0x95c43b…
05-25 08:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	0	33¢	$0	0x6c20c9…
05-25 08:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x5676af…
05-25 08:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	0	33¢	$0	0x539ea6…
05-25 08:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x363d70…
05-25 08:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	0	33¢	$0	0x2253c5…
05-25 08:24:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x15198c…
05-25 08:24:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	33¢	$1	0xb80652…
05-25 08:24:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x814ee6…
05-25 08:24:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	33¢	$1	0x399ed8…
05-25 08:14:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1,817	2¢	$31	0x67b958…
05-25 08:12:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xd1706c…
05-25 08:12:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	287	5¢	$14	0x907a2c…
05-25 08:12:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x905ca2…
05-25 08:12:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	73	5¢	$4	0x2a56d4…
05-25 08:12:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	5¢	$0	0x21f06a…
05-25 08:12:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1,557	5¢	$71	0x3ce31e…
05-25 08:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	72	4¢	$3	0xff1688…
05-25 08:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	79	4¢	$3	0xf71355…
05-25 08:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	4¢	$0	0x93c45f…
05-25 08:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	63	4¢	$3	0x895622…
05-25 08:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x3b71eb…
05-25 08:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	33	4¢	$1	0x219610…
05-25 08:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x0232a8…
05-25 08:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0xf269b0…
05-25 08:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0x90745c…
05-25 08:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	79	4¢	$3	0x7725d3…
05-25 08:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x4136ff…
05-25 08:11:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xec3702…
05-25 08:11:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	79	4¢	$3	0xd87eba…
05-25 08:11:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	0	4¢	$0	0xd0b7dd…
05-25 08:11:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	79	4¢	$3	0x842aac…
05-25 08:11:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x79df81…
05-25 08:11:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	38	4¢	$2	0x05814e…
05-25 08:11:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	4¢	$0	0xf79cb8…
05-25 08:11:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xcb2eca…
05-25 08:11:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x0294dc…
05-25 08:11:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1,214	4¢	$44	0x4ffcb0…
05-25 08:09:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	4,120	1¢	$41	0x54dc0f…
05-25 08:09:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1,119	1¢	$11	0x78b5b4…
05-25 08:04:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10,000	99¢	$9,900	0x36c8c9…
05-25 07:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	158	98¢	$155	0xa64954…
05-25 07:44:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	943	96¢	$908	0x210774…
05-19 12:08:20	Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs Sergey Fomin	Sergey Fomin	BUY	5,722	14¢	$801	0x712758…
05-19 12:06:28	Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs Sergey Fomin	Sergey Fomin	BUY	4,940	19¢	$939	0x0dde33…
05-19 12:05:48	Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs Sergey Fomin	Sergey Fomin	BUY	477	22¢	$105	0x45357b…
05-19 12:04:19	Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs Sergey Fomin	Sergey Fomin	BUY	202	17¢	$34	0xcba43a…
05-19 12:04:19	Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs Sergey Fomin	Sergey Fomin	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x342325…
05-19 12:02:58	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	3,010	4¢	$126	0x81c616…
05-19 12:00:21	Bengaluru 3: S D Prajwal Dev vs Ilya Ivashka	S D Prajwal Dev	BUY	465	0¢	$0	0xe3935f…
05-19 12:00:21	Bengaluru 3: S D Prajwal Dev vs Ilya Ivashka	S D Prajwal Dev	BUY	460	0¢	$0	0xd64c05…
05-19 12:00:21	Bengaluru 3: S D Prajwal Dev vs Ilya Ivashka	S D Prajwal Dev	BUY	650	0¢	$1	0x90ca52…
05-19 12:00:21	Bengaluru 3: S D Prajwal Dev vs Ilya Ivashka	S D Prajwal Dev	BUY	620	0¢	$1	0x493e75…
05-19 12:00:21	Bengaluru 3: S D Prajwal Dev vs Ilya Ivashka	S D Prajwal Dev	BUY	395	0¢	$0	0x3dea05…
05-19 12:00:21	Bengaluru 3: S D Prajwal Dev vs Ilya Ivashka	S D Prajwal Dev	BUY	480	0¢	$0	0x27bfd3…
05-19 12:00:21	Bengaluru 3: S D Prajwal Dev vs Ilya Ivashka	S D Prajwal Dev	BUY	21,242	0¢	$21	0x1fd397…
05-19 12:00:21	Bengaluru 3: S D Prajwal Dev vs Ilya Ivashka	S D Prajwal Dev	BUY	390	0¢	$0	0x1a1ec6…
05-19 11:58:34	Bengaluru 3: S D Prajwal Dev vs Ilya Ivashka	S D Prajwal Dev	BUY	10,000	1¢	$100	0x0f23ac…
05-19 11:56:33	Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur Gea	Arthur Gea	BUY	1,000	22¢	$219	0x5a9abd…
05-18 12:13:43	Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur	Alex de Minaur	BUY	1,165	92¢	$1,070	0xcb2a38…
05-14 11:44:34	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	BUY	2,411	2¢	$48	0x14c84b…
05-14 11:44:31	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	BUY	73	2¢	$1	0xfccbbf…
05-14 11:44:31	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xb8add6…
05-14 11:44:15	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	BUY	152	2¢	$3	0x00827e…
05-14 11:33:43	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	SELL	7,904	15¢	$1,186	0xbd590f…
05-14 11:33:41	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	SELL	150	15¢	$22	0x203834…
05-14 11:33:41	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	SELL	150	15¢	$22	0x10060d…
05-14 11:33:40	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	SELL	133	15¢	$20	0xd59dd0…
05-14 11:33:40	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	SELL	23	15¢	$3	0xd37ea9…
05-14 11:33:40	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x4a8903…
05-14 11:33:38	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0xc8d2ac…
05-14 11:33:38	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	SELL	150	15¢	$22	0x9e86d5…
05-14 11:33:38	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	SELL	150	15¢	$22	0x60aca6…
05-14 11:33:36	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	SELL	300	15¢	$45	0xe07b14…
05-14 11:33:36	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	SELL	108	15¢	$16	0x495ac5…
05-14 11:33:36	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	SELL	150	15¢	$22	0x3625ef…
05-14 11:33:36	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x1fb3b3…
05-14 11:33:34	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	SELL	11	15¢	$2	0xd0a40d…
05-14 11:33:33	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	SELL	13	15¢	$2	0x44dad8…
05-14 11:14:56	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	BUY	9,481	4¢	$357	0xf92ea0…
05-14 10:40:22	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	BUY	22	12¢	$3	0xf891c4…
05-14 10:40:22	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	BUY	3,000	12¢	$360	0xe1ec48…
05-14 10:40:22	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	BUY	78	12¢	$9	0xb5c78f…
05-14 10:40:22	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	BUY	150	12¢	$18	0xacc973…
05-14 10:40:22	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	BUY	2,321	12¢	$278	0x8b2caf…
05-14 10:40:22	Oeiras 4: Laslo Djere vs Colton Smith	Colton Smith	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x52b056…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Blind-Leaf 0x2b59…9db6	197	$34.9K	2,543	04-28 09:01
(anonymous) 0xa3c2…df3d	193	$75.2K	12,527	04-25 07:41
(anonymous) 0xe6bd…0f6d	184	$576	600	04-25 15:31
Mortified-Wetland 0xf2cf…464b	174	$4.03K	1,799	05-07 16:32
Fine-Antecedent 0x23d1…353f	167	$6.92K	7,517	04-24 02:25
Bogus-Curry 0xb06a…52f5	166	$22.1K	5,123	04-28 09:52
Impressionable-Ship 0x04dc…d572	165	$5.58K	5,920	04-24 02:27
Trained-Beanie 0xcb32…79aa	164	$4.68K	4,832	04-24 02:25