Fumbling-Fiesta — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

93.4%

Resolved

Trades

310

lifetime

Volume

$10.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

$96

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 17:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

41% 100% +$1

Other

33% 100% +$6

Sports

14% 100% +$2

Politics

10% 0% $-0

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes		+99	$96	96¢	$96	$-1	06-01 12:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	10	$808	1,036	1,036	+0	open	—	03-24 05:37
elon musk of tweets march 30 april 1 115 139	3	$593	300	300	+0	open	—	04-01 16:46
will paradex launch a token on march 5	2	$579	456	456	+0	open	—	03-05 15:13
will bitcoin reach 90k in february 2026	2	$523	380	152	+228	open	—	02-13 07:36
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	5	$400	214	214	+0	open	—	03-03 04:35
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	2	$376	800	800	+0	open	—	04-03 06:27
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$259	130	130	+0	open	—	04-01 16:46
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?	5	$220	223	0	+223	open	—	05-01 13:19
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	3	$220	225	0	+225	open	—	04-23 17:11
lol blg jdg 2026 04 14	1	$212	250	0	+250	open	—	04-13 11:12
bitcoin above 88k on january 1	2	$208	350	0	+350	open	—	01-01 09:24
bitcoin above 84k on january 30	2	$207	160	100	+60	open	—	01-30 07:30
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17?	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	05-17 00:25
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?	1	$200	200	0	+200	open	—	05-19 02:20
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	2	$199	100	100	+0	open	—	04-30 01:29
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$181	1,112	1,112	+0	open	—	02-20 13:31
ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	8	$161	251	0	+251	open	—	07-21 17:17
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3?	3	$150	300	0	+300	open	—	05-03 15:13
highest temperature in dallas on april 22 2026 72forhigher	3	$149	150	0	+150	open	—	04-22 09:37
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4?	4	$149	105	53	+53	open	—	05-04 13:42
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	10	$134	130	85	+45	open	—	04-07 17:57
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	5	$109	122	84	+38	open	—	03-21 05:56
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	3	$101	164	0	+164	Up	+$1	05-05 16:25
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9?	1	$100	100	0	+100	Yes	+$0	05-09 10:54
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30?	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	04-30 14:41
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5?	1	$100	100	0	+100	Yes	+$0	05-05 12:03
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9?	1	$100	101	0	+101	Yes	+$1	05-09 10:14
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	9	$100	105	0	+105	Yes	+$5	05-06 07:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	1	$100	103	0	+103	open	—	05-04 02:11
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	05-26 06:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 17:17:15	ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	18	46¢	$8	0xa715d1…
07-21 16:49:58	ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xddf30c…
07-21 16:46:46	ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xdaa17d…
07-21 16:46:19	ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x2269de…
07-21 15:45:54	ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	28	46¢	$13	0x23e47c…
07-21 14:27:12	ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	13	46¢	$6	0x443296…
06-23 18:55:07	ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	71	69¢	$49	0x03edbf…
06-23 18:51:47	anthropic openai vs meta higher valuation on june 30	Anthropic + OpenAI	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x1e7a6b…
06-23 18:51:05	spacex vs tesla higher valuation on june 30	SpaceX	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xdfd943…
06-02 23:47:07	Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xf2734b…
06-01 12:14:59	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x6330a7…
06-01 06:31:20	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xb24de8…
05-31 18:10:18	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0x4eeccd…
05-30 21:11:33	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x8f9ed4…
05-30 19:30:44	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x9a824d…
05-30 16:10:49	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x3d8814…
05-30 13:47:24	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x4e778b…
05-30 13:37:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0xcee242…
05-30 13:37:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	12¢	$9	0xca6798…
05-28 13:08:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0x186e35…
05-26 06:25:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x3b440f…
05-19 02:20:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x662b92…
05-18 02:02:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	69¢	$35	0x3e3fea…
05-17 00:25:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xac6ed6…
05-15 04:55:19	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x7094fa…
05-09 10:54:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0e51ff…
05-09 10:14:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9?	Yes	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xa08331…
05-06 07:13:04	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	94	95¢	$89	0xb5a707…
05-06 06:14:58	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x18de87…
05-06 05:58:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xcdb519…
05-06 05:54:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	28¢	$22	0xaa602c…
05-06 05:53:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x927067…
05-06 05:30:04	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x28d32f…
05-06 03:30:42	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x956759…
05-06 03:30:40	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x06de01…
05-06 03:30:36	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xed0c6e…
05-06 03:30:32	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x69959c…
05-06 03:30:30	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x727321…
05-06 03:30:28	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	BUY	0	95¢	$0	0x72ad6b…
05-05 16:25:08	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	18	2¢	$0	0x3d6306…
05-05 16:24:38	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Down	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x5930a7…
05-05 16:17:16	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?	Up	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xf59c43…
05-05 12:03:48	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf55b96…
05-04 13:42:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4?	Yes	SELL	53	93¢	$49	0xe20b24…
05-04 10:28:14	Ethereum Up or Down on May 4?	Down	SELL	33	56¢	$19	0xc654d6…
05-04 09:02:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xb25968…
05-04 05:13:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	53	95¢	$51	0x8c4e1e…
05-04 05:12:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	31	95¢	$30	0x77e86a…
05-04 05:11:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xdbeb24…
05-04 05:10:28	Ethereum Up or Down on May 4?	Down	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x5234a0…
05-04 02:11:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0x512a65…
05-03 15:13:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3?	No	BUY	150	1¢	$1	0xd4be1e…
05-03 15:10:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x607dab…
05-03 15:08:10	Ethereum Up or Down on May 3?	Up	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xc9e1f9…
05-03 15:08:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3?	Yes	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x1e4213…
05-02 09:35:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 3?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x0fb015…
05-02 07:10:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x5b2556…
05-01 13:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?	Up	BUY	135	99¢	$134	0x7f9241…
05-01 13:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4bc765…
05-01 13:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?	Up	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x8c54cb…
05-01 13:18:32	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?	Up	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x713c86…
05-01 12:46:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xf94312…
05-01 12:38:10	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 1?	Up	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x4044d9…
04-30 14:41:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x75a415…
04-30 08:22:54	San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5	Over	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x4b7e45…
04-30 05:43:16	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x0a8f79…
04-30 05:41:58	Utah vs. Golden Knights	Utah	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x05d212…
04-30 01:58:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xf9be52…
04-30 01:55:52	megaeth fdv above 1pt2b one day after launch	Yes	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0xf1e9ae…
04-30 01:29:36	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x24c135…
04-29 08:51:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 29?	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xc0c5b3…
04-28 14:32:12	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x917dab…
04-28 13:53:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2dc077…
04-28 13:52:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 28?	Yes	SELL	10	66¢	$7	0x9819ca…
04-28 13:12:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 28?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x56c4ad…
04-26 12:34:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xfe921f…
04-26 05:33:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xcb3953…
04-25 10:50:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xa48c66…
04-25 01:14:48	highest temperature in seattle on april 24 2026 62 63f	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xbeb3e7…
04-23 17:22:12	megaeth fdv above 700m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x0fd665…
04-23 17:21:06	megaeth fdv above 1pt2b one day after launch	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x9e7d9a…
04-23 17:20:44	megaeth fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x0c9243…
04-23 17:19:46	megaeth fdv above 800m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0xc411c6…
04-23 17:19:32	megaeth fdv above 700m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xff6c9d…
04-23 17:11:38	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xcce123…
04-23 17:10:02	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xedcf21…
04-23 17:08:46	Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x62dd98…
04-22 12:48:52	highest temperature in dallas on april 22 2026 70 71f	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0xa607c2…
04-22 11:36:26	lowest temperature in tokyo on april 22 2026 14c	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9701d9…
04-22 09:37:20	highest temperature in dallas on april 22 2026 72forhigher	Yes	BUY	99	99¢	$98	0xda1f01…
04-22 09:18:06	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	60	96¢	$58	0x23baa0…
04-22 09:18:04	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xea3462…
04-22 09:12:00	highest temperature in dallas on april 22 2026 72forhigher	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8c5a65…
04-22 09:10:32	highest temperature in dallas on april 22 2026 70 71f	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x43e3f9…
04-22 09:09:48	highest temperature in dallas on april 22 2026 72forhigher	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x84c5ac…
04-22 09:06:04	lowest temperature in tokyo on april 22 2026 14c	Yes	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x119882…
04-21 15:46:14	highest temperature in atlanta on april 21 2026 76 77f	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x49e22f…
04-21 15:24:22	highest temperature in istanbul on april 21 2026 18c	Yes	BUY	0	100¢	$0	0x56f9b8…
04-21 15:21:22	highest temperature in istanbul on april 21 2026 18c	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xc47b09…
04-21 15:20:52	highest temperature in istanbul on april 21 2026 18c	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5ea6bf…