Royal-Dogwood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$223

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.4%

Resolved

Trades

248

lifetime

Volume

$101.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$409

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 08-10 18:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

62% 100% +$37

Other

38% 100% +$287

Crypto

0% 0% $-100

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

29 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	16	$8.4K	78,997	3,756	+75,241	open	—	06-17 22:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	14	$7.3K	61,609	8,352	+53,257	open	—	06-17 11:56
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by march 31 426 698 771	3	$6.4K	5,895	4,421	+1,474	open	—	03-12 20:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$4.7K	2,670	2,670	+0	open	—	05-31 21:20
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 31	1	$4.0K	4,987	0	+4,987	open	—	03-12 20:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$3.9K	2,219	2,219	+0	open	—	04-30 09:46
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	4	$3.7K	2,425	3,116	-691	open	—	06-03 06:04
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	4	$3.3K	1,845	1,845	+0	open	—	06-01 06:40
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	4	$3.2K	2,023	2,023	+0	open	—	05-16 03:15
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	5	$3.0K	1,720	1,720	+0	open	—	06-02 12:39
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	2	$2.7K	1,494	1,494	+0	No	+$287	05-01 17:27
israel military action against yemen by april 15 2026	3	$2.2K	1,550	1,550	+0	open	—	04-13 19:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	3	$2.2K	1,416	1,399	+18	open	—	04-12 19:58
minneapolis border patrol shooter charged	2	$2.1K	1,476	1,476	+0	open	—	01-30 21:42
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	2	$2.0K	1,619	1,619	+0	open	—	03-21 09:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	4	$2.0K	1,981	200	+1,781	open	—	06-03 07:52
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	2	$1.8K	3,262	3,262	+0	open	—	04-08 07:28
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	5	$1.8K	3,047	1,524	+1,524	open	—	01-30 21:44
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	4	$1.7K	2,458	2,458	+0	open	—	05-25 23:32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	4	$1.6K	3,049	2,975	+74	open	—	04-24 11:50
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$1.5K	909	909	+0	open	—	04-12 19:54
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	2	$1.5K	1,992	1,992	+0	open	—	04-08 07:28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?	2	$1.4K	2,832	2,748	+83	open	—	04-13 19:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$1.4K	769	769	+0	open	—	05-30 16:41
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	1	$1.4K	1,380	0	+1,380	open	—	01-30 21:44
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	3	$1.4K	840	840	+0	open	—	05-25 23:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$1.3K	927	927	+0	open	—	06-15 02:05
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$1.2K	667	667	+0	open	—	05-28 16:47
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	8	$1.2K	89,464	44,732	+44,732	open	—	05-26 20:29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	2	$1.1K	1,651	0	+1,651	open	—	05-11 20:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 18:47:13	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	No	BUY	27	88¢	$24	0xad224c…
08-08 20:46:10	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	57	67¢	$38	0x27b86a…
08-08 20:45:48	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	SELL	40	96¢	$38	0x479afd…
08-08 18:29:09	will openais astra model be released by september 15 2026	No	BUY	30	46¢	$14	0xf782af…
08-08 10:21:36	will russia capture toretske by september 30 2026	No	BUY	88	56¢	$49	0xe677c3…
08-06 02:58:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	48	68¢	$33	0x0ffc5f…
08-05 22:41:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0xff7d6c…
08-05 05:41:23	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	100	21¢	$21	0xf65d28…
08-04 00:17:56	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x61bf72…
08-04 00:17:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0x9cded4…
08-01 15:55:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	123	69¢	$85	0xc49f05…
08-01 15:54:44	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	85	100¢	$85	0x4e9105…
07-30 07:48:26	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	94	32¢	$30	0x4d13bf…
07-30 07:47:09	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	Yes	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0xfe47ae…
07-30 07:45:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	45	80¢	$36	0x88b770…
07-30 07:44:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	74	48¢	$35	0x0a77df…
07-30 02:42:03	israel military action against greater beirut by august 31 20260708214159403	Yes	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0xa2ac1a…
07-30 02:40:33	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	94	32¢	$30	0xc6a3a1…
07-30 02:40:08	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0xf114e1…
07-30 02:38:32	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1	No	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0x33bcc2…
07-30 02:32:42	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 from july 27	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0xcde487…
07-29 18:08:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x5f923e…
07-23 16:59:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	45	84¢	$38	0x052ce2…
07-23 14:04:43	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	54	67¢	$37	0x0fdd3c…
07-23 14:04:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	74	50¢	$37	0x5d75c3…
07-22 09:31:03	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	Yes	BUY	89	76¢	$68	0x84140f…
07-22 09:30:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	148	46¢	$68	0xffe535…
07-21 16:46:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	Yes	BUY	85	72¢	$61	0x92c332…
07-18 14:13:49	spcx above 110 on july 31 2026	No	BUY	38	32¢	$12	0xd6bc6d…
07-14 00:51:22	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	51	55¢	$28	0x4cdc6b…
07-14 00:50:29	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0xfc62db…
07-14 00:36:58	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0x0e3874…
07-08 17:13:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	72¢	$25	0x69c7f7…
07-08 17:10:58	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	28	53¢	$15	0x98a131…
07-08 17:06:08	will graham platner drop out by july 17 974 785 861	No	BUY	327	3¢	$10	0x2fd629…
07-08 17:06:01	will graham platner drop out by july 9	No	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0x0892c4…
07-08 17:05:53	will graham platner drop out by july 9	No	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x065919…
07-08 17:03:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	111	99¢	$110	0xa284b6…
06-17 22:46:02	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	No	BUY	3,000	0¢	$6	0x3f13a9…
06-17 22:45:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x5980e4…
06-17 22:43:56	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	No	BUY	6,500	0¢	$13	0xc5d909…
06-17 22:43:32	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0xd73b23…
06-17 22:40:29	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	6,000	0¢	$6	0xe60333…
06-17 22:39:59	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	250	1¢	$2	0x1458fe…
06-17 22:39:50	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	400	1¢	$3	0x763db2…
06-17 22:39:31	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	616	0¢	$2	0x1ac801…
06-17 18:39:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	141	63¢	$89	0xdf9b89…
06-17 18:39:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	886	9¢	$80	0x599005…
06-17 11:56:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25,000	0¢	$50	0x94e201…
06-17 11:56:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	25,000	0¢	$50	0xe196f6…
06-17 11:55:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,182	9¢	$106	0x6035cd…
06-17 04:29:59	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$20	0xe13a77…
06-16 15:14:34	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	14,286	1¢	$100	0xcbf025…
06-16 11:07:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,923	1¢	$30	0x471034…
06-16 08:40:01	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6,849	2¢	$110	0xefb0ed…
06-16 02:14:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,348	2¢	$40	0x107406…
06-16 02:14:46	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,667	2¢	$40	0x7974e0…
06-15 22:03:00	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	8,160	6¢	$500	0x050b65…
06-15 21:56:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,860	5¢	$100	0xd4f26e…
06-15 21:56:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,898	5¢	$100	0x357805…
06-15 21:32:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,615	5¢	$230	0xcf35bf…
06-15 21:32:36	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	SELL	475	48¢	$229	0xf5946d…
06-15 21:32:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,072	4¢	$180	0x5f2e08…
06-15 17:27:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,393	3¢	$150	0x304137…
06-15 10:32:54	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	352	91¢	$320	0xa76586…
06-15 02:05:52	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	3,464	19¢	$660	0xbc5ed8…
06-15 02:05:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	927	73¢	$676	0x0c8728…
06-15 02:04:12	will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	Yes	SELL	453	8¢	$34	0x48fc3b…
06-15 00:16:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,243	18¢	$220	0x42e32d…
06-15 00:16:12	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	237	95¢	$226	0x0035c9…
06-15 00:15:24	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	2,774	18¢	$490	0xeab6f4…
06-15 00:14:19	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	3,009	18¢	$540	0x1bb922…
06-15 00:13:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7,652	7¢	$536	0xe66de7…
06-12 20:20:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,464	56¢	$2,500	0xa68cb1…
06-12 18:14:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	2,998	82¢	$2,454	0x9d226e…
06-12 07:46:00	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	777	6¢	$50	0x729af5…
06-08 11:44:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,118	85¢	$950	0x06a4a6…
06-08 11:44:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,923	26¢	$500	0x453aa9…
06-08 08:40:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,070	86¢	$1,780	0x487e81…
06-03 21:27:18	will wti reach 120 in june 2026 243	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x425fa7…
06-03 21:27:07	will wti crude oil wti hit high 115 in june	Yes	BUY	84	24¢	$20	0x0a4a52…
06-03 21:27:00	will wti reach 110 in june 2026 658 257 353	Yes	BUY	82	37¢	$30	0x889ab4…
06-03 21:26:33	will wti reach 110 in june 2026 658 257 353	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x7b05cf…
06-03 21:26:27	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xadc28f…
06-03 21:26:18	will wti reach 130 in june 2026 362	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x72f3df…
06-03 21:26:07	will wti crude oil wti hit high 175 in june	Yes	BUY	561	2¢	$10	0x419a93…
06-03 21:26:03	will wti reach 150 in june 2026 555	Yes	BUY	346	3¢	$10	0x54664b…
06-03 21:25:51	will wti reach 140 in june 2026 374	Yes	BUY	222	5¢	$10	0x839c2a…
06-03 21:25:46	will wti reach 130 in june 2026 362	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x9af9db…
06-03 21:25:37	will wti reach 120 in june 2026 243	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x653e05…
06-03 21:25:22	will wti crude oil wti hit high 125 in june	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xecbbf7…
06-03 21:25:18	will wti crude oil wti hit high 115 in june	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x46ada7…
06-03 21:25:12	will wti reach 110 in june 2026 658 257 353	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xd2f67d…
06-03 21:25:06	will wti crude oil wti hit high 105 in june	Yes	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x45b0e3…
06-03 07:53:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?	Yes	BUY	182	77¢	$140	0xa7ad73…
06-03 07:52:57	Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary?	Yes	BUY	804	6¢	$50	0xf86c05…
06-03 07:52:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0xc39417…
06-03 06:04:17	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	3,116	65¢	$2,021	0xdbfd40…
06-02 13:48:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,149	87¢	$1,000	0xade839…
06-02 13:47:48	Kash Patel out by December 31?	Yes	BUY	180	56¢	$100	0xa58922…