Faraway-Cotton — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.33K

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

484

lifetime

Volume

$140.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$290

Open exposure

$21

1 position

First seen

2026-01-24

last 06-12 14:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

62% 0% $-4,333

Other

37% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 44 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes		-81	$-22	26¢	$-21	+$1	06-12 14:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	28	$21.4K	14,700	14,700	+0	open	—	05-14 02:28
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	16	$8.6K	12,290	12,290	+0	open	—	05-21 02:31
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	7	$7.4K	9,090	9,090	+0	open	—	05-24 03:53
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	125	$7.1K	5,675	5,675	+0	open	—	05-07 03:19
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	5	$7.1K	6,504	6,504	+0	open	—	04-01 13:31
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	32	$6.9K	9,700	3,112	+6,588	open	—	04-27 18:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	6	$6.5K	5,286	2,313	+2,972	Yes	$-2,331	04-17 02:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	13	$6.1K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	05-01 18:05
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	5	$6.0K	3,928	3,928	+0	open	—	03-19 02:59
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	28	$5.2K	6,167	6,167	+0	open	—	04-22 04:14
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	13	$4.9K	6,878	1,000	+5,878	open	—	04-07 00:57
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$4.8K	3,000	3,000	+0	open	—	03-09 02:23
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$4.5K	2,400	2,400	+0	open	—	05-27 03:28
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$4.1K	2,600	2,600	+0	open	—	04-15 02:40
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	19	$3.4K	4,300	4,300	+0	open	—	04-18 19:07
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	7	$3.1K	2,900	2,900	+0	open	—	03-05 02:22
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	12	$3.0K	3,528	2,428	+1,100	open	—	04-06 03:07
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$2.8K	2,899	2,899	+0	open	—	03-22 21:08
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	3	$2.7K	3,031	3,031	+0	open	—	02-28 20:20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	6	$2.4K	2,400	2,345	+55	open	—	04-29 12:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	4	$2.0K	3,182	0	+3,182	Yes	$-2,001	03-16 03:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$2.0K	1,200	1,200	+0	open	—	04-26 02:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	04-27 02:32
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	4	$1.3K	1,039	1,039	+0	open	—	03-14 15:20
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	2	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	03-21 04:20
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	3	$1.1K	1,729	1,729	+0	open	—	03-19 02:56
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	4	$1.1K	1,761	1,761	+0	open	—	03-24 02:11
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$1.0K	833	833	+0	open	—	02-28 20:20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	2	$902	1,700	1,648	+52	open	—	04-24 01:38
trumps travel ban removed by january 31	1	$900	928	0	+928	open	—	01-24 05:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 14:22:24	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x4b734d…
06-12 14:21:13	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	16	27¢	$4	0x53f44d…
06-12 08:03:57	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	39	27¢	$11	0x992383…
06-12 06:33:07	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	27¢	$2	0xed0d27…
06-12 02:16:46	Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	15	27¢	$4	0xa693b9…
05-27 03:28:11	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	2,400	98¢	$2,364	0xf07571…
05-26 03:11:14	Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	52¢	$523	0xf314db…
05-24 03:53:15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,791	43¢	$2,060	0x675690…
05-24 03:51:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,682	43¢	$1,153	0x419db3…
05-24 03:30:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	43¢	$7	0x17a82c…
05-23 02:49:41	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	Yes	SELL	427	30¢	$128	0x95f92a…
05-23 02:11:01	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	Yes	SELL	25	30¢	$8	0x4ab930…
05-23 02:10:59	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	Yes	SELL	253	30¢	$76	0xb3b4a4…
05-21 02:31:59	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3,089	30¢	$927	0x9b0b23…
05-21 02:31:01	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,427	42¢	$597	0xa8050f…
05-21 02:28:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	57	30¢	$17	0xe7fb5a…
05-21 02:28:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	57	30¢	$17	0x96b999…
05-21 02:28:02	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	34	30¢	$10	0x061524…
05-21 02:19:40	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	500	30¢	$150	0xb3efe7…
05-21 02:17:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3,953	30¢	$1,186	0x5c9240…
05-20 03:27:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0x9304fc…
05-20 03:26:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0xc7410d…
05-20 03:25:57	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2,700	48¢	$1,296	0x4e67d1…
05-20 03:25:45	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	200	48¢	$96	0x503dcf…
05-20 03:24:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	80	48¢	$38	0x340bdc…
05-20 03:22:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,600	47¢	$752	0xb4ad92…
05-20 03:21:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,600	13¢	$208	0x773a08…
05-17 03:30:50	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3,200	36¢	$1,152	0x132bc9…
05-14 02:28:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	10,100	93¢	$9,393	0x613f96…
05-11 01:19:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3,400	36¢	$1,224	0x8bfb86…
05-11 01:19:41	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,400	30¢	$1,020	0x923d5c…
05-08 04:25:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	2,500	72¢	$1,800	0x800983…
05-08 04:24:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,400	38¢	$526	0xd6e238…
05-08 04:24:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,400	51¢	$713	0xa8ab75…
05-07 03:19:34	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1,112	82¢	$912	0xe78640…
05-07 02:59:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	4,290	28¢	$1,201	0x60d898…
05-07 02:59:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,290	51¢	$2,205	0x1cb131…
05-07 02:51:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	7,600	71¢	$5,396	0xef0bb3…
05-07 01:25:07	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1,143	82¢	$939	0x8a1cd5…
05-06 03:18:40	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	880	79¢	$695	0xcb9fb6…
05-06 02:49:22	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	120	79¢	$95	0x550237…
05-03 06:36:48	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	BUY	600	52¢	$312	0x41d946…
05-03 03:03:52	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?	No	SELL	497	92¢	$457	0xca2f50…
05-02 18:23:18	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	BUY	231	60¢	$139	0xc81129…
05-02 00:48:54	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	BUY	80	60¢	$48	0x8c4ee4…
05-01 18:48:56	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0xd5fe9f…
05-01 18:07:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	800	79¢	$632	0xa765db…
05-01 18:05:46	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x4e3de1…
05-01 18:05:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3,100	79¢	$2,449	0x462eb9…
05-01 18:04:34	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	BUY	81	60¢	$49	0x019582…
04-29 12:40:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	SELL	2,345	75¢	$1,755	0xc7b7e1…
04-27 18:22:00	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	232	35¢	$81	0x565cb5…
04-27 18:12:28	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	128	35¢	$45	0x9ddccb…
04-27 04:01:26	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	740	35¢	$259	0xfe032a…
04-27 02:39:26	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	1,000	35¢	$350	0x86ed38…
04-27 02:37:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	800	63¢	$504	0x30966a…
04-27 02:36:36	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	1,000	35¢	$350	0x97bb02…
04-27 02:32:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	98¢	$977	0x31d912…
04-26 02:44:02	Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?	No	BUY	412	4¢	$15	0x3fe175…
04-26 02:17:04	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	1,500	35¢	$523	0x6c9622…
04-26 02:16:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	1,200	99¢	$1,188	0x194646…
04-25 11:33:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0x886981…
04-25 11:06:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xba43a9…
04-25 11:01:44	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x3820b1…
04-25 10:32:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0x34e621…
04-25 10:32:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	50¢	$15	0x12c2b3…
04-25 10:01:38	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x5271dd…
04-25 08:54:22	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	50¢	$19	0x967b90…
04-25 08:53:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	50¢	$13	0x98208a…
04-25 06:56:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0xc8c343…
04-25 06:56:34	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	50¢	$15	0xbcf2de…
04-25 05:52:24	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x794f3d…
04-25 04:06:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	50¢	$19	0xe3815d…
04-25 04:06:52	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	297	50¢	$147	0x17d73a…
04-25 04:06:50	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xbf75dc…
04-25 01:41:54	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	700	88¢	$616	0xa48b4d…
04-25 01:41:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,400	66¢	$924	0x0fbede…
04-24 01:59:28	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	1,700	88¢	$1,496	0x0bba68…
04-24 01:42:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	2,850	36¢	$1,026	0xfdeb7c…
04-24 01:38:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	SELL	1,648	31¢	$511	0x3f8e4c…
04-23 12:05:00	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	675	79¢	$534	0x735255…
04-23 12:01:34	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xb28539…
04-23 11:55:58	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x513323…
04-23 11:46:24	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x1c6cb3…
04-23 11:35:32	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x3edd0e…
04-23 11:25:32	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x15cd17…
04-23 11:16:00	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x8afc7d…
04-23 11:15:32	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x855dcd…
04-23 11:05:56	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xeb20e8…
04-23 11:05:28	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x788dc8…
04-23 10:55:52	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x5166d3…
04-23 10:55:24	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xa4df0a…
04-23 10:45:44	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xbf4f9a…
04-23 10:45:20	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x7e32de…
04-23 10:35:42	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x3fd1c9…
04-23 10:26:08	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xe9680e…
04-23 10:25:40	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x98e812…
04-23 10:16:18	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x51d79b…
04-23 10:07:06	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x149f13…
04-23 10:06:38	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x2492b8…