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Realized P&L (90d)
-$213
Unrealized P&L
+$15
Hit rate
71.1%
Resolved (90d)
36
Trades (90d)
155
165 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$4.34K
$4.49K lifetime
Avg / trade
$27
Open exposure
$1.29K
25 positions
First seen
2026-02-13
last 11-12 14:37
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 21 days
Categories
Other
55% 40% -$233
Politics
42% 50% -$44
Tech
3% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
25 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democrats win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election? Yes +500 $405 84¢ $422 +$18 11-10 19:57
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No +200 $165 78¢ $156 -$8 11-11 15:14
Will the Democrats win Pennsylvania in the 2028 Presidential Election? Yes +220 $128 65¢ $143 +$15 11-10 18:43
Will the Republicans win Pennsylvania in the 2028 Presidential Election? Yes +250 $80 33¢ $82 +$3 11-10 15:54
Will the Republicans win Minnesota in the 2028 Presidential Election? Yes +500 $73 14¢ $70 -$3 11-10 19:57
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October? Yes +70 $64 95¢ $67 +$3 11-09 22:31
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting? Yes +105 $63 62¢ $65 +$2 11-07 12:57
Will PP win the most seats in Ciudad Real in the 2026 Spanish general election? Yes +50 $47 92¢ $46 -$1 11-11 09:34
Will the Democrats win New Jersey in the 2028 Presidential Election? Yes +36 $31 86¢ $31 +$0 11-05 21:26
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +30 $29 98¢ $30 +$1 11-09 21:48
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +300 $31 9¢ $27 -$3 11-11 15:58
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +50 $24 47¢ $24 $0 11-09 21:50
Will November 2026 Core CPI YoY be 2.9%? Yes +60 $17 36¢ $22 +$5 11-11 23:26
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +30 $18 64¢ $19 +$1 11-05 20:18
where will it rain on november 12 2026 atlanta ga No — +20 $19 94¢ $19 $0 11-11 19:01
Will the US add between 100k and 125k jobs in November? Yes +115 $11 15¢ $17 +$6 11-12 08:43
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +15 $9 90¢ $13 +$5 10-02 10:47
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting? Yes +105 $9 8¢ $8 -$1 11-07 12:57
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%? Yes +10 $4 84¢ $8 +$4 10-02 10:55
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting? Yes +105 $7 6¢ $7 -$1 11-07 12:57
will the us add between 125k and 150k jobs in november 2026 Yes +32 $3 17¢ $5 +$2 11-11 00:49
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October? No +70 $14 5¢ $4 -$11 11-09 22:20
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting? Yes +105 $3 2¢ $2 -$1 11-07 12:57
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%? Yes +10 $5 15¢ $2 -$3 10-09 18:12
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028? Yes +0 $16 30¢ $0 -$16 11-11 23:34