Costly-Hour 0xd990ad…6f4349 Create alert
bot 3L streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$500
Unrealized P&L
-$3
Hit rate
81.7%
Resolved
2,249
Trades
2,824
lifetime
Volume
$10.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$109
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-07 06:14
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 301 days
Categories
Other
82% 83% -$429
Crypto
12% 87% -$92
Politics
4% 85% -$19
Sports
1% 78% +$40
Tech
1% 93% +$0
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
68 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +33 $20 68¢ $22 +$2 05-25 12:25
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +50 $20 32¢ $16 -$4 05-25 12:25
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes -17 -$14 94¢ $-16 -$2 05-24 03:52
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? No -6 -$6 99¢ $-6 +$0 10-21 19:52
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No +5 $5 99¢ $5 +$0 06-02 14:21
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? No +5 $5 99¢ $5 +$0 06-06 08:19
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes +5 $5 86¢ $4 $0 09-21 13:14
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +4 $3 90¢ $3 +$0 06-02 05:59
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +3 $2 92¢ $2 +$0 06-07 05:29
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +2 $2 98¢ $2 +$0 09-24 11:51
Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $2,500 by end of December? No — +2 $2 99¢ $2 +$0 10-08 05:43
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +2 $2 99¢ $2 +$0 05-03 04:43
Will the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? No — +2 $2 100¢ $2 +$0 06-02 06:03
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 November 2-8? No +2 $2 100¢ $2 +$0 11-07 06:13
Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +2 $2 100¢ $2 $0 09-21 05:08
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +2 $2 99¢ $2 $0 05-15 15:03
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026? Yes +1,000 $1 0¢ $2 +$0 11-07 06:14
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes +105 $2 1¢ $1 -$1 09-18 03:22
Will Rotimi Amaechi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? No +1 $1 100¢ $1 +$0 06-05 07:18
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +1 $1 96¢ $1 +$0 06-04 07:02
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 05-16 03:26
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 05-20 04:55
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +1 $1 100¢ $1 +$0 05-24 04:02
NATO dissolves before 2027? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 05-24 03:57
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +1 $1 99¢ $1 +$0 10-07 03:29
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027? No +1 $1 99¢ $1 +$0 05-16 03:25
Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31? No +1 $1 97¢ $1 +$0 10-29 04:48
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +1 $1 94¢ $1 +$0 07-26 07:41
Will another artist be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? No +1 $1 94¢ $1 +$0 06-18 05:51
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1 $1 100¢ $1 +$0 05-01 08:08