Realized P&L
-$4.90K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.92K
Hit rate
67.4%
Resolved
56,311
Trades
872,274
lifetime
Volume
$5.18M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$28.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-07-18
last 11-15 06:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 119 days
Categories
Other
76% 60% -$3,910
Politics
15% 53% -$1,308
Sports
9% 47% -$2,758
Crypto
0% 49% +$3,007
Tech
0% 49% +$56
Pop-Culture
0% 45% +$15
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 12246 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +2,425 $1,857 92¢ $2.2K +$387 11-09 11:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +2,265 $1,298 96¢ $2.2K +$865 11-12 03:21
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +1,894 $1,810 98¢ $1.9K +$55 11-03 21:53
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +1,910 $1,727 93¢ $1.8K +$40 10-29 17:51
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +1,674 $1,666 100¢ $1.7K +$4 10-18 18:50
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +1,140 $1,103 100¢ $1.1K +$33 10-30 18:39
Will Dallas Mavericks win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +960 $953 99¢ $952 -$1 10-15 01:02
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +939 $934 99¢ $929 -$5 10-14 20:44
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +965 $782 94¢ $902 +$121 11-10 05:37
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +924 $915 97¢ $897 -$18 10-14 11:07
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? No +900 $889 99¢ $893 +$3 10-26 13:28
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No +908 $888 98¢ $891 +$3 11-09 16:08
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +963 $843 91¢ $874 +$31 09-18 12:13
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +919 $676 90¢ $822 +$146 11-05 11:22
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No +755 $732 100¢ $752 +$20 11-04 00:38
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +752 $739 99¢ $742 +$3 08-17 20:42
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship? No +724 $721 100¢ $723 +$1 10-15 01:09
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +1,085 $759 66¢ $717 -$43 11-15 04:59
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? No +733 $622 98¢ $715 +$93 09-30 13:48
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? No +735 $644 96¢ $706 +$62 11-14 10:03
Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals? No +685 $680 99¢ $681 +$1 10-28 14:03
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +742 $720 91¢ $674 -$47 11-12 18:12
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +682 $653 98¢ $671 +$19 11-06 04:32
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +681 $596 96¢ $656 +$61 11-03 08:51
Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? No +646 $642 100¢ $644 +$2 10-17 06:36
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +640 $631 99¢ $631 +$1 10-04 09:40
Will Sporting CP win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? No +613 $609 100¢ $611 +$2 10-20 21:00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? No +607 $540 100¢ $604 +$64 11-14 10:40
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No +601 $595 99¢ $596 +$1 10-17 12:06
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? No +592 $573 100¢ $589 +$16 10-07 09:38