Close-Overnighter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.65K

Unrealized P&L

-$115

Hit rate

46.9%

Resolved

3,965

Trades

10,076

lifetime

Volume

$227.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$3.71K

19 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 10-27 19:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 158 days

Categories

Other

47% 88% -$1,012

Politics

25% 5% -$332

Crypto

18% 89% -$226

Tech

6% 8% -$54

Sports

4% 0% -$25

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

78 active days in 12wk • peak 164 trades/day

Open positions (19) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+727	$551	96¢	$697	+$146	06-06 02:02
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	+755	$401	92¢	$691	+$290	10-03 01:59
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+1,043	$594	51¢	$535	-$59	07-25 15:33
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+1,043	$500	49¢	$509	+$9	07-26 00:18
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	No	+295	$280	88¢	$258	-$21	10-25 21:43
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	+243	$172	97¢	$235	+$63	06-02 21:06
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	+200	$180	94¢	$187	+$7	10-26 08:42
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	+185	$78	96¢	$178	+$100	10-12 12:54
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	+199	$98	54¢	$106	+$9	06-30 04:19
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	Yes	+199	$102	46¢	$93	-$9	06-30 14:15
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+755	$379	8¢	$64	-$315	10-23 19:37
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?	Yes	+54	$36	98¢	$54	+$18	09-13 03:14
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	+50	$46	92¢	$46	$0	10-26 10:20
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+727	$190	4¢	$29	-$161	06-06 00:57
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	+11	$10	100¢	$11	+$1	09-06 13:08
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	+243	$71	3¢	$8	-$62	06-02 23:51
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+185	$115	4¢	$7	-$107	05-23 13:34
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?	No	+54	$22	2¢	$1	-$21	06-24 16:33
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	+11	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	09-06 13:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	7	$7.4K	14,609	2	+14,607	Yes	-$76	06-24 10:59
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?	30	$3.8K	7,376	1,259	+6,117	No	-$154	05-08 07:01
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	16	$3.8K	7,445	12	+7,433	Yes	-$52	05-28 02:10
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	15	$3.2K	1,973	1,603	+370	open	—	10-12 12:54
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	8	$3.1K	1,836	1,836	+0	open	—	10-17 11:07
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	14	$2.2K	1,600	1,600	+0	open	—	10-26 17:39
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	10	$2.0K	1,367	1,367	+0	open	—	10-14 18:30
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	11	$2.0K	1,116	1,116	+0	open	—	10-23 23:33
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	11	$1.9K	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	10-12 16:02
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	8	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	09-17 18:24
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	4	$1.7K	950	950	+0	open	—	10-07 01:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	4	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	09-04 20:48
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	10	$1.4K	947	947	+0	open	—	10-22 22:15
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	6	$1.4K	791	791	+0	Yes	-$6	09-19 21:26
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	4	$1.4K	800	800	+0	open	—	09-19 23:00
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	2	$1.4K	750	750	+0	open	—	10-03 03:34
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	2	$1.4K	750	750	+0	open	—	10-03 04:21
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	10	$1.3K	750	750	+0	Yes	-$28	10-08 05:58
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	6	$1.3K	736	736	+0	open	—	10-17 19:57
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	4	$1.3K	1,484	1,484	+0	open	—	10-17 23:25
Will NuScale announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	6	$1.3K	750	750	+0	open	—	10-03 04:49
Ilhan Omar federally charged by October 31?	15	$1.2K	612	612	+0	open	—	10-19 23:36
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	10	$1.2K	1,811	301	+1,509	open	—	10-23 19:37
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	6	$1.1K	800	800	+0	No	-$4	09-04 22:40
New pandemic in 2026?	7	$1.1K	800	800	+0	open	—	10-06 00:17
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?	9	$1.1K	600	600	+0	Yes	-$5	08-31 13:43
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	5	$1.1K	2,087	1	+2,086	open	—	07-26 00:18
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	17	$1.1K	796	796	+0	No	-$3	09-20 00:53
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	4	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	10-07 03:49
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	8	$990	600	600	+0	open	—	09-05 17:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:38:24	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	87¢	$35	0xad48b9…
10-27 19:36:03	French election called by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0x3d3598…
10-27 19:35:48	French election called by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x2e1f98…
10-27 19:29:56	Will Maura Higgins win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x161e9c…
10-27 19:29:39	Will Maura Higgins win Dancing With the Stars: Season 35?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xbffb72…
10-27 19:16:56	Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0xa6e36d…
10-27 18:57:59	Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	15	8¢	$1	0xd0cc53…
10-27 18:57:33	Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x514dc1…
10-27 18:57:21	Will GitLab be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xc7f7a6…
10-27 18:43:39	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be below 4,189.3 ft?	Yes	SELL	22	7¢	$1	0x1c48eb…
10-27 18:43:12	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be below 4,189.3 ft?	Yes	SELL	28	8¢	$2	0x04415e…
10-27 18:42:56	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be below 4,189.3 ft?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x9e6a53…
10-27 18:38:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x7ff101…
10-27 18:37:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xa2bc02…
10-27 18:34:47	Will Julianne Moore be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	19	95¢	$18	0x962527…
10-27 18:34:30	Will Julianne Moore be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	19	95¢	$18	0x70502b…
10-27 16:36:36	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	No	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0xd6439e…
10-27 16:36:26	Will OpenAI rename itself to OpenSI?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$45	0xd5932e…
10-27 13:14:41	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 90?	Yes	SELL	44	93¢	$41	0x734eb9…
10-27 13:14:20	Will "GTA VI" have a Metascore of at least 90?	Yes	BUY	44	94¢	$41	0x29a2d9…
10-27 12:48:23	Will the Carolina Hurricanes make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	No	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xff8307…
10-27 12:48:12	Will the Carolina Hurricanes make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	No	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x8b300c…
10-27 12:06:29	Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x010c11…
10-27 12:06:17	Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xc57660…
10-27 10:32:57	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0x7a0f4f…
10-27 08:57:21	Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	SELL	25	2¢	$1	0xf6f7ab…
10-27 08:56:50	Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0xfb97fa…
10-27 08:28:21	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x5c4ab6…
10-27 08:03:47	Will Minotaur win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x552004…
10-27 08:03:18	Will Minotaur win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	44	8¢	$4	0xa0594c…
10-27 08:03:17	Will Minotaur win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0x65491f…
10-27 08:03:06	Will Minotaur win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	44	8¢	$4	0xc7cc10…
10-27 06:13:23	France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$5	0x402a97…
10-27 05:58:09	France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	7	90¢	$7	0x4d7884…
10-27 05:58:00	France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	37	90¢	$34	0x06d1ab…
10-27 05:57:32	France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x868871…
10-27 05:29:24	Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	200	96¢	$192	0xe0b3ad…
10-27 05:29:12	Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x296f24…
10-27 02:45:24	Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	160	89¢	$142	0x06ff5c…
10-27 01:46:08	Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	SELL	60	1¢	$0	0xa44ef9…
10-27 00:46:00	Will United States host the 2028 Copa America?	Yes	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x0a4bd3…
10-27 00:45:33	Will United States host the 2028 Copa America?	Yes	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x445d5b…
10-27 00:45:06	Will United States host the 2028 Copa America?	Yes	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x650630…
10-27 00:44:56	Will United States host the 2028 Copa America?	No	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0x4cc23e…
10-27 00:44:53	Will United States host the 2028 Copa America?	Yes	BUY	50	91¢	$45	0x289828…
10-27 00:02:50	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x5cb15d…
10-27 00:02:33	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x705cd8…
10-26 23:49:32	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L?	No	SELL	54	90¢	$49	0x8a8c55…
10-26 23:49:21	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L?	No	BUY	54	90¢	$49	0x519b2a…
10-26 23:30:45	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0xccac3d…
10-26 23:30:20	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x8c4590…
10-26 23:12:57	Will Ajax win the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League Championship?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x48ba9f…
10-26 23:12:47	Will Ajax win the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League Championship?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x7335a6…
10-26 23:12:47	Will Ajax win the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League Championship?	No	BUY	90	90¢	$81	0x6a4f2c…
10-26 23:08:33	Will Newcastle United qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	No	SELL	40	88¢	$35	0x61b5be…
10-26 23:08:21	Will Newcastle United qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	No	BUY	40	88¢	$35	0x39631d…
10-26 22:05:48	Will Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	No	SELL	400	91¢	$365	0x1657f1…
10-26 22:05:32	Will Josh Hawley vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?	No	BUY	400	93¢	$374	0x13cfa4…
10-26 18:39:41	Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x63b955…
10-26 18:39:11	Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xd855f9…
10-26 17:39:33	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	400	89¢	$356	0x965966…
10-26 17:39:20	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	400	90¢	$360	0xb8d0d7…
10-26 16:23:48	Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?	No	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x21aee6…
10-26 16:23:23	Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?	No	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x864506…
10-26 16:22:57	Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$187	0xb7d64c…
10-26 16:22:38	Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?	No	BUY	348	94¢	$327	0x211f00…
10-26 16:22:36	Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?	No	BUY	52	94¢	$49	0xbc98a7…
10-26 15:17:41	Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x200f3b…
10-26 15:17:33	Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	No	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0xd85ad9…
10-26 15:17:30	Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	No	BUY	191	94¢	$180	0xca4967…
10-26 11:53:39	Greenland snap election called by December 31?	Yes	SELL	60	3¢	$2	0x86e4d2…
10-26 11:53:20	Greenland snap election called by December 31?	Yes	BUY	60	3¢	$2	0x75a398…
10-26 11:50:09	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	No	SELL	27	88¢	$23	0x3f0f53…
10-26 11:49:42	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	No	SELL	16	89¢	$14	0x137c43…
10-26 11:49:15	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	No	BUY	42	91¢	$38	0x6884f7…
10-26 11:49:15	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	No	SELL	58	91¢	$53	0x352209…
10-26 11:49:00	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	No	BUY	8	91¢	$7	0xf58699…
10-26 11:49:00	Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x858ae3…
10-26 11:31:39	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	80	86¢	$69	0x84d44c…
10-26 11:28:32	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x6d3a03…
10-26 11:28:18	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	45	88¢	$40	0x6ef97c…
10-26 11:28:18	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0x514d43…
10-26 11:28:17	Will "La Nieve" from The Black Ball be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x3f54cf…
10-26 10:20:38	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x7245cc…
10-26 09:43:42	Will "Josephine" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	21	85¢	$18	0x6c23df…
10-26 09:43:26	Will "Josephine" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xf2e2e0…
10-26 09:43:24	Will "Josephine" be nominated for Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	14	88¢	$12	0xc5280a…
10-26 08:42:00	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x94fca0…
10-26 06:21:11	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	50	93¢	$47	0x62226b…
10-26 06:20:59	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0xe2cdfa…
10-26 02:38:59	Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	No	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x8a700d…
10-26 02:38:44	Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	No	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0x238b93…
10-26 01:51:50	Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x6564a3…
10-26 01:51:35	Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0x140183…
10-26 00:35:38	Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	5¢	$3	0x97e80f…
10-25 23:49:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	SELL	121	90¢	$109	0x8693ce…
10-25 23:48:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	27	90¢	$24	0x0e2dbe…
10-25 23:48:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	94	90¢	$85	0x3f6cc2…
10-25 23:39:32	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0x3a54fe…
10-25 23:39:14	Yoon out of custody before 2027?	No	BUY	50	93¢	$47	0xd8a0b9…