Steep-Treat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,212

lifetime

Volume

$14.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 08-10 22:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

71% 100% +$1

Other

25% 100% +$0

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 61 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	13	$5.5K	4,622	844	+3,778	open	—	06-17 21:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	6	$657	657	0	+657	open	—	06-17 21:56
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	80	$621	501	492	+8	open	—	04-27 19:15
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	178	$604	818	641	+176	open	—	04-27 23:04
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	97	$589	430	352	+77	open	—	04-22 22:35
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	40	$465	587	407	+180	open	—	08-05 04:29
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?	68	$385	288	276	+12	open	—	04-25 05:00
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	47	$272	163	153	+10	open	—	04-21 00:32
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	44	$258	415	150	+266	open	—	08-05 04:29
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	17	$248	126	126	+0	open	—	04-18 04:38
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	4	$220	165	55	+109	open	—	04-30 22:57
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	42	$190	180	126	+54	open	—	04-22 22:45
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$181	182	0	+182	open	—	06-03 21:26
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	39	$173	136	132	+5	open	—	04-24 15:40
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	55	$173	298	285	+13	open	—	04-21 03:27
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?	48	$173	88	88	+0	open	—	04-24 15:56
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	17	$169	86	86	+0	open	—	04-21 02:36
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	5	$152	86	81	+5	open	—	03-16 16:18
Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	34	$150	90	90	+0	open	—	04-21 20:02
will spd win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	18	$146	357	295	+62	open	—	03-22 17:51
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	23	$144	185	107	+77	open	—	05-15 04:06
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	7	$141	96	96	+0	No	+$1	05-07 20:35
military action against iran ends on march 25 2026	7	$139	103	47	+56	open	—	03-25 13:58
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	9	$136	95	47	+48	open	—	03-22 21:04
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$132	132	0	+132	open	—	04-08 18:45
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	27	$112	102	102	+0	open	—	05-25 23:29
military action against iran ends by march 25 2026	4	$103	104	0	+104	open	—	03-25 20:48
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	23	$91	104	62	+42	open	—	04-21 04:17
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	22	$88	113	106	+7	open	—	05-17 11:39
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	6	$86	49	40	+9	open	—	04-26 02:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 22:40:04	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xcf56c4…
08-09 23:58:57	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	14	6¢	$1	0x6a261b…
08-07 13:33:13	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x331c05…
08-07 13:16:36	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0x6aed93…
08-06 10:10:12	will eisenkot join the bennett lapid alliance by august 31 2026 20260628215113848	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xdd6830…
08-05 17:02:00	what will be the next fed rate change 20260713235358796	Hike	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x60bdaa…
08-05 17:01:59	what will be the next fed rate change 20260713235358796	Hike	BUY	0	65¢	$0	0xfe196c…
08-05 04:29:51	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	45	59¢	$27	0x5a49de…
08-05 04:29:51	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x5a26a9…
08-05 04:29:48	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xd688a9…
08-04 17:01:56	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	37	48¢	$18	0xf54bde…
08-04 15:21:41	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xc8aaf0…
08-04 15:20:42	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x22e427…
08-04 15:20:39	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xc528c4…
08-04 15:11:48	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xab6f94…
08-04 14:53:50	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	58¢	$9	0x08d13e…
08-04 14:45:50	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	25	62¢	$15	0xbf9f99…
08-04 14:33:09	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x5bbb5e…
08-04 14:13:03	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xe7923b…
08-04 14:05:39	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xfb96d1…
08-04 14:05:38	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xad4beb…
08-04 14:05:35	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x6ff0ab…
08-04 14:05:35	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x32a5f0…
08-03 11:37:42	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xbc1ab2…
08-03 11:36:18	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x8a17c1…
08-03 09:11:56	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	63¢	$5	0xb34314…
08-02 23:01:21	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	56¢	$2	0x9dd18f…
08-02 23:00:08	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xac5621…
08-01 21:30:06	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xbdfb64…
08-01 21:30:05	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	22	66¢	$14	0xec8b4b…
08-01 18:17:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x936c2a…
08-01 18:05:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x3d0458…
08-01 18:03:14	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xc04d1a…
08-01 17:55:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x9a7756…
07-31 12:16:42	what will be the next fed rate change 20260713235358796	Hike	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xdcd0a5…
07-31 10:38:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x26a42b…
07-30 07:16:26	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x6c4ad7…
07-29 22:39:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb07149…
07-29 22:26:53	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	SELL	4	11¢	$0	0xb30b14…
07-29 21:55:51	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x61b48c…
07-29 21:54:05	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0xe2cb14…
07-29 21:53:44	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	8	94¢	$7	0x06b8e1…
07-29 21:50:29	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x812595…
07-29 19:01:02	will trump praise allah again by july 31 20260709192527504	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x0e12a6…
07-28 18:52:17	Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xf8f290…
07-27 16:59:10	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x536b83…
07-27 16:57:27	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x8a4526…
07-26 22:18:12	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7d8b9a…
07-26 22:08:42	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xeebb41…
07-26 22:00:49	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xdd3e5e…
07-26 21:58:16	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xa23b63…
07-26 21:58:13	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	73	55¢	$40	0x73482d…
07-26 16:01:43	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	3¢	$0	0x8dbda6…
07-26 11:56:24	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	20¢	$2	0x87937e…
07-26 03:33:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 23	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x1cc7db…
07-25 19:38:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0xf4c72e…
07-25 19:14:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x810e80…
07-25 18:58:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x2b11d8…
07-25 18:22:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0x591fe5…
07-25 18:04:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	No	BUY	8	6¢	$0	0x8b5090…
07-24 12:41:43	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	Yes	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xe367e3…
07-24 12:38:36	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x14a2c5…
07-24 08:40:42	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x4c859c…
07-23 18:37:16	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x28ddf6…
07-23 05:08:03	netanyahu drops out of israel election by september 30	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0xd62273…
07-22 15:55:58	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x7adbab…
07-22 15:43:45	Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0xee1d95…
07-22 14:58:18	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x66f435…
07-21 21:38:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	26	8¢	$2	0x4aed5c…
07-21 19:38:25	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	14	46¢	$6	0xfdb6a9…
07-21 19:38:25	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x0964be…
07-21 18:18:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	14	7¢	$1	0x59071c…
07-21 17:53:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	44	8¢	$4	0x28825d…
07-21 17:27:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	21	7¢	$2	0x315488…
07-21 17:27:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	22	7¢	$2	0x4b0996…
07-21 17:27:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x4ac706…
07-21 17:22:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	35	6¢	$2	0xfd4b1b…
07-21 17:17:04	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x83c65c…
07-21 17:14:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x58b4be…
07-21 17:14:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	9	6¢	$1	0xbc5212…
07-21 17:11:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x7caa37…
07-21 17:11:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0x4f78b6…
07-21 17:09:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	97	8¢	$8	0x176ca3…
07-21 15:10:19	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	13	49¢	$6	0xa6e9f4…
07-21 03:40:42	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xb6cb5c…
07-20 19:27:27	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by july 17 2026 20260714212508551	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x0e6037…
07-20 14:02:09	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x4c47f8…
07-20 13:14:27	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xbf6348…
07-20 01:57:15	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0x80e089…
07-19 23:31:39	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x15fc53…
07-19 23:16:13	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0x48f42d…
07-19 23:13:00	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	SELL	19	3¢	$1	0x05eb94…
07-19 23:12:27	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	SELL	9	3¢	$0	0xa50340…
07-19 23:12:25	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	SELL	16	3¢	$0	0x606935…
07-19 23:12:22	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0xc2164a…
07-19 23:12:04	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x108001…
07-19 23:11:45	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x1bf207…
07-19 23:11:34	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x294b83…
07-19 23:04:43	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x6ffcea…
07-19 16:54:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb0b610…