Realized P&L
+$436
Unrealized P&L
+$171
Hit rate
75.9%
Resolved
510
Trades
7,087
lifetime
Volume
$32.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$2.36K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-13
last 10-28 04:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 115 days
Categories
Politics
49% 54% +$60
Other
49% 57% +$373
Tech
1% 55% +$3
Crypto
1% 17% -$1
Sports
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 181 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No +453 $318 97¢ $440 +$123 10-14 19:44
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +306 $249 80¢ $243 -$6 10-09 11:10
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No +277 $225 80¢ $220 -$5 10-09 09:40
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +138 $130 98¢ $136 +$6 10-28 04:38
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +135 $125 100¢ $135 +$10 09-29 19:12
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes +155 $94 74¢ $115 +$21 10-06 06:37
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +106 $58 96¢ $101 +$43 09-28 15:02
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +108 $93 90¢ $98 +$5 07-22 16:15
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No +95 $80 99¢ $94 +$14 09-28 14:40
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +91 $82 96¢ $87 +$5 10-06 06:37
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +83 $50 96¢ $80 +$30 10-03 17:18
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +347 $86 20¢ $68 -$19 10-06 06:37
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +126 $79 52¢ $66 -$13 10-25 08:51
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No -62 -$62 98¢ $-61 +$1 10-26 21:06
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +58 $55 92¢ $54 -$1 10-28 05:15
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? No +209 $80 23¢ $48 -$32 09-25 09:25
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +146 $47 24¢ $34 -$13 09-30 01:09
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +32 $31 100¢ $32 +$1 09-29 22:12
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +32 $31 99¢ $32 +$0 10-27 23:06
Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +68 $25 46¢ $31 +$6 10-27 10:21
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes -115 -$17 20¢ $-24 -$7 09-30 16:11
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +39 $17 56¢ $22 +$4 10-28 02:33
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority? No +21 $19 96¢ $21 +$2 10-27 20:27
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +20 $19 100¢ $20 +$1 07-19 22:43
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +20 $20 100¢ $20 +$0 08-27 10:52
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? No +82 $19 23¢ $19 +$0 10-06 06:37
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? No +49 $22 36¢ $17 -$5 10-28 01:45
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +21 $17 77¢ $16 -$1 10-02 12:33
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +29 $13 48¢ $14 +$1 10-28 02:00
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +14 $13 100¢ $14 +$1 08-16 15:30