Sizzling-Safari — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$9.31K

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

59.4%

Resolved

1,511

Trades

12,674

lifetime

Volume

$691.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

$227

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-26 01:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 216 days

Categories

Politics

62% 37% -$2,339

Other

29% 31% -$6,233

Crypto

8% 87% -$548

Sports

1% 25% -$70

Tech

1% 40% -$119

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	+111	$84	81¢	$90	+$6	10-26 01:34
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	-48	-$45	97¢	$-47	-$2	06-17 04:00
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	-33	-$31	98¢	$-32	$0	06-17 04:01
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?	No	-32	-$30	98¢	$-31	-$1	05-21 00:22
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	-30	-$27	92¢	$-28	-$1	06-17 23:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1,377	$190.1K	193,524	304,893	-111,369	Yes	+$2,184	04-05 03:32
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	461	$62.8K	67,379	98,969	-31,590	No	+$1,072	03-31 00:19
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	245	$21.1K	23,013	35,928	-12,914	No	-$1,352	03-21 11:32
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	284	$16.5K	16,281	22,640	-6,359	No	-$594	04-16 04:07
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	318	$16.0K	17,130	27,274	-10,144	Yes	-$1,139	04-07 13:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	406	$15.7K	15,894	15,464	+431	No	-$254	05-24 11:25
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	263	$12.5K	14,877	15,509	-632	Yes	-$406	06-14 14:08
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	16	$11.4K	6,300	6,300	+0	Yes	-$5	03-04 06:05
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	175	$10.7K	9,546	8,979	+567	Yes	+$605	03-07 23:36
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	63	$10.2K	5,036	13,402	-8,366	No	+$8	03-17 07:23
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	255	$10.2K	8,978	9,887	-909	Yes	+$914	03-15 13:28
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	46	$9.4K	18,536	18,356	+180	Yes	-$1	04-02 08:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	300	$8.7K	11,146	11,446	-300	Yes	-$233	06-14 07:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	56	$7.4K	5,862	6,473	-611	No	-$230	04-21 11:19
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	8	$6.1K	3,072	5,072	-2,000	No	-$708	03-07 23:28
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	80	$6.0K	4,140	6,506	-2,367	Yes	-$11	03-11 08:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	139	$5.9K	5,198	5,770	-572	No	-$339	05-23 12:49
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$5.8K	3,500	3,500	+0	Yes	-$35	02-25 02:56
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	123	$5.5K	4,694	4,918	-224	No	-$82	04-29 16:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	75	$4.8K	6,409	6,858	-448	Yes	-$582	04-17 09:39
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	90	$4.7K	4,723	4,778	-56	No	+$31	05-05 11:53
will wti dip to 80 in june 2026 848 561 294 989 956	88	$4.2K	6,844	6,844	+0	Yes	+$30	06-14 22:06
italy nordio reform referendum passes	88	$4.0K	3,151	4,528	-1,377	No	-$89	03-23 10:07
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	77	$4.0K	5,171	4,207	+964	No	-$504	05-26 06:28
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?	96	$4.0K	4,067	5,683	-1,616	Yes	-$120	03-22 14:55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	60	$3.4K	4,456	4,657	-201	No	+$81	05-09 06:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	108	$3.4K	6,660	6,089	+571	No	-$183	05-23 13:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?	82	$3.3K	3,619	3,619	+0	No	-$66	07-11 14:30
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	65	$3.2K	4,279	4,479	-200	No	+$56	04-17 13:22
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	83	$3.0K	1,897	3,296	-1,399	No	-$146	03-22 13:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 01:34:11	Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	111	76¢	$84	0x5ec1f7…
10-24 23:36:02	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	17	88¢	$15	0xc47b6b…
10-24 23:35:56	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	122	84¢	$102	0x0f196e…
10-24 22:15:24	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0xd9b9fa…
10-24 22:15:06	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	122	85¢	$104	0xbf6688…
10-24 09:44:09	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	88¢	$68	0x72927f…
10-23 13:51:59	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	83	86¢	$71	0x225a5e…
10-23 13:51:48	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	200	67¢	$134	0x27d10b…
10-21 09:34:27	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	86¢	$8	0xe4c500…
10-21 09:34:00	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	86¢	$58	0xbb2f92…
10-21 09:32:54	Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	92¢	$55	0xdf9c44…
10-21 09:32:42	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x79d6dd…
10-19 13:36:17	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0xec0898…
10-19 13:35:54	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0xd616be…
10-19 11:45:15	Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	63	71¢	$45	0x2e5af4…
10-18 13:25:38	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 18?	No	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x48bcbc…
10-18 13:23:59	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 18?	No	SELL	12	2¢	$0	0x7d4c73…
10-18 13:16:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 18?	No	SELL	8	2¢	$0	0x413930…
10-18 12:59:56	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 18?	No	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xa4eca4…
10-18 12:59:56	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 18?	No	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0x05ff8b…
10-18 12:54:14	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 18?	No	BUY	5	10¢	$1	0x571a54…
10-18 12:49:39	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 18?	No	BUY	8	10¢	$1	0x1c7d38…
10-17 02:54:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	Yes	BUY	64	96¢	$62	0x96b72d…
10-15 23:20:06	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	54	90¢	$48	0x58a502…
10-15 23:19:58	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	19	78¢	$15	0x5cc410…
10-15 07:33:37	StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	101	98¢	$99	0x9fb010…
10-15 07:33:17	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	109	99¢	$107	0x2aaa38…
10-15 07:33:02	StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x7cfe32…
10-14 23:11:31	StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x8ce40e…
10-14 23:11:19	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x7957a5…
10-14 23:10:15	StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x8e19ee…
10-14 23:07:37	StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x76a689…
10-14 11:12:28	Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	300	97¢	$291	0x1a20d8…
10-14 11:11:59	Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$195	0x7cbb11…
10-14 11:11:47	Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0xdbd2bb…
10-14 11:08:01	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	88¢	$26	0x3a5968…
10-14 11:07:49	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	12	79¢	$9	0x167e29…
10-13 10:54:07	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on October 13?	No	SELL	12	9¢	$1	0xce9007…
10-13 10:52:22	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on October 13?	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xe76e1c…
10-13 10:39:43	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on October 13?	No	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0x126622…
10-13 10:37:17	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on October 13?	No	BUY	2	12¢	$0	0xbaef53…
10-13 10:35:13	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x05d0d3…
10-13 09:53:35	Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x9aaa11…
10-13 02:28:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	SELL	16	89¢	$15	0x8ddb2c…
10-13 02:27:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 13?	No	SELL	26	88¢	$23	0x85622e…
10-13 00:17:50	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on October 12?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xb96c8b…
10-13 00:14:17	2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x81ee3d…
10-13 00:11:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 13?	No	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0xa64c65…
10-13 00:09:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 13?	No	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0xf6a92e…
10-12 06:10:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0x8b0126…
10-12 06:10:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0x19770d…
10-12 06:09:56	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xef1ccf…
10-12 06:09:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0xac450a…
10-12 06:09:06	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x2484f4…
10-12 06:08:05	Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0xcde5c3…
10-12 06:06:00	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xb0ccaf…
10-12 06:04:03	Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	91¢	$55	0x620c25…
10-08 02:39:32	Will MrBeast's next video get 176 million or more views on day 5?	No	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xd3579c…
10-08 02:29:44	Will MrBeast's next video get 176 million or more views on day 5?	No	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xa82523…
10-08 02:11:13	Will MrBeast's next video get 176 million or more views on day 5?	No	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xa09940…
10-08 01:34:47	Will MrBeast's next video get 176 million or more views on day 5?	No	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x8eb0fc…
10-08 00:56:20	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	No	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0xc99cd6…
10-08 00:53:52	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xa46558…
10-08 00:07:58	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x759a68…
10-08 00:04:16	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x5f58bc…
10-07 23:47:55	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x2f85b2…
10-07 23:38:01	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x67aeb6…
10-07 23:27:26	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x4126e5…
10-03 04:52:29	Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x9085e3…
10-03 04:52:21	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	128	82¢	$104	0x1dfd68…
10-03 01:18:48	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	128	84¢	$107	0x36e01f…
10-03 01:18:02	Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x01093b…
10-02 23:15:26	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	150	14¢	$21	0x0427af…
10-02 23:13:09	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	150	14¢	$22	0x968015…
10-02 23:11:03	Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	16¢	$4	0x3569be…
10-02 23:05:56	saudi troops fighting in yemen by october 10 2026	Yes	SELL	25	10¢	$2	0x5e9cfa…
09-30 03:38:39	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC	Down	SELL	101	96¢	$97	0xee5f8f…
09-30 03:19:24	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC	Down	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xce7132…
09-30 03:08:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	200	40¢	$81	0x029213…
09-30 03:07:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	200	41¢	$83	0xec8157…
09-30 03:05:45	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on September 30?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xc64891…
09-30 01:39:57	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x2e1a02…
09-30 00:33:15	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x76a2f9…
09-30 00:14:30	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$1	0x7cf1f0…
09-26 00:46:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	SELL	100	14¢	$14	0x8677cc…
09-26 00:41:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	No	BUY	100	17¢	$17	0x0e099b…
09-26 00:29:12	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	SELL	30	42¢	$13	0x0ea0e3…
09-26 00:29:03	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0x7c24ff…
09-26 00:24:21	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	35	43¢	$15	0x2d6509…
09-26 00:24:03	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	35	43¢	$15	0xfc9892…
09-26 00:23:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	30	57¢	$17	0x573e69…
09-26 00:23:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	30	57¢	$17	0x78bcbb…
09-18 23:39:45	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0xa02f5d…
09-18 23:38:33	Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x65ddc6…
09-17 09:04:24	wti up or down on september 17 2026	Up	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x4f217d…
09-17 08:36:06	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 17?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xc379c4…
09-17 08:27:15	wti up or down on september 17 2026	Up	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x4687fd…
09-17 08:26:31	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 17?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x727f7e…
09-16 12:28:06	Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	115	51¢	$59	0x782523…
09-16 12:28:00	Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	220	29¢	$63	0x77ab96…