Realized P&L
-$2.85K
Unrealized P&L
-$61
Hit rate
48.1%
Resolved
131
Trades
608
lifetime
Volume
$10.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$17
Open exposure
$1.13K
22 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-26 18:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 43 days
Categories
Other
68% 46% -$2,916
Politics
32% 70% +$67
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
19 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,000 $280 29¢ $285 +$5 10-14 08:27
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes +585 $96 22¢ $129 +$33 10-23 05:23
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +303 $119 42¢ $126 +$7 10-25 14:14
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes +260 $109 42¢ $109 +$0 10-20 18:47
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No -100 -$97 98¢ $-98 $0 10-14 12:55
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No -100 -$97 97¢ $-97 +$0 10-16 16:13
Blue tsunami in 2026? Yes +160 $79 59¢ $94 +$16 10-24 21:26
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No +210 $40 21¢ $44 +$4 10-23 05:23
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? Yes +437 $28 8¢ $33 +$5 10-15 17:16
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No +34 $20 62¢ $21 +$1 10-17 07:20
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -20 -$19 94¢ $-19 +$0 10-22 07:17
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? Yes +640 $66 3¢ $18 -$48 07-12 06:12
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? No +20 $13 56¢ $11 -$2 09-21 22:54
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? No +30 $17 36¢ $11 -$6 09-21 19:43
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes +120 $66 8¢ $10 -$55 07-12 06:39
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No -10 -$10 98¢ $-10 $0 10-14 17:12
Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $17 3¢ $6 -$11 07-15 13:03
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes +100 $4 4¢ $4 +$0 10-18 08:34
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? No +4 $4 97¢ $4 $0 09-19 05:51
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Yes +10 $1 14¢ $1 +$0 10-20 15:21
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes +20 $5 6¢ $1 -$4 09-19 18:59
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? Yes +130 $8 1¢ $1 -$6 07-12 08:20