Prize-Minimum 0xfb26f6…d006f7
4W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$560
Unrealized P&L
+$61
Hit rate
69.2%
Resolved
50
Trades
177
lifetime
Volume
$12.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$72
Open exposure
$2.99K
22 positions
First seen
2026-02-20
last 10-31 20:18
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 35 days
Categories
Politics
68% 42% +$32
Other
32% 39% +$471
Sports
1% 100% +$57
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
22 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 No +580 $399 86¢ $502 +$102 08-10 18:41
european country agrees to give ukraine security guarantee by december 31 No +400 $348 92¢ $366 +$18 08-21 14:47
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -316 -$304 97¢ $-307 -$3 09-25 14:25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? No +214 $200 94¢ $202 +$2 10-11 08:32
will lebanon recognize israel by december 31 No +184 $153 93¢ $171 +$18 08-21 14:49
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? No +160 $143 97¢ $155 +$13 08-21 14:34
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? No +167 $150 92¢ $153 +$3 10-31 20:18
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +130 $100 88¢ $114 +$14 10-16 18:09
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -110 -$106 97¢ $-107 -$1 08-10 18:40
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026? No +112 $100 94¢ $106 +$6 10-25 17:47
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -100 -$96 98¢ $-98 -$2 08-18 13:34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +106 $90 90¢ $96 +$6 08-23 13:09
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +100 $74 94¢ $94 +$20 08-21 14:39
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +568 $91 16¢ $93 +$2 09-17 17:18
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +609 $100 15¢ $92 -$8 09-17 17:17
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +546 $100 16¢ $88 -$12 09-17 17:17
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +1,686 $81 5¢ $85 +$5 05-19 09:35
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +80 $72 92¢ $74 +$2 08-25 06:11
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +920 $100 6¢ $53 -$47 05-02 14:48
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +1,042 $25 3¢ $27 +$2 09-17 17:01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +5 $27 88¢ $5 -$22 09-11 10:51
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +9 $54 11¢ $1 -$53 09-15 06:07