Probable-Bidding — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$180

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

497

lifetime

Volume

$133.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$268

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 06-09 22:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

69% 100% +$116

Other

17% — —

Sports

5% 100% +$63

Crypto

5% — —

Tech

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	25	$12.8K	10,100	10,100	+0	open	—	05-25 20:55
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	22	$12.3K	8,325	7,789	+536	open	—	04-28 18:50
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final?	2	$7.2K	6,343	6,343	+0	Yes	+$63	04-28 17:17
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	22	$7.1K	4,789	4,789	+0	open	—	05-17 13:03
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	13	$6.5K	6,599	6,599	+0	open	—	05-01 01:10
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	32	$6.2K	3,735	3,735	+0	open	—	04-21 20:17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	19	$6.1K	3,645	3,645	+0	open	—	04-24 12:24
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	11	$4.7K	3,084	3,084	+0	open	—	04-27 13:44
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	8	$4.3K	2,486	2,362	+124	open	—	05-16 20:35
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	24	$4.0K	2,700	2,700	+0	open	—	05-11 20:08
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	12	$3.6K	2,304	2,134	+170	open	—	05-10 17:55
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	16	$3.2K	1,835	1,835	+0	open	—	04-24 21:00
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	9	$3.1K	1,663	1,663	+0	open	—	04-21 15:19
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	12	$3.1K	3,049	3,049	+0	open	—	05-01 21:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	9	$2.6K	1,545	1,545	+0	open	—	05-25 20:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	6	$2.5K	2,074	619	+1,455	No	+$116	05-10 12:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	8	$2.4K	1,471	1,471	+0	open	—	04-27 23:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	10	$2.2K	1,370	1,370	+0	open	—	04-21 19:43
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	8	$2.1K	1,875	1,055	+820	open	—	05-17 22:08
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	3	$2.0K	1,299	1,299	+0	open	—	05-01 21:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	3	$1.9K	1,031	1,031	+0	open	—	04-25 20:28
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	9	$1.9K	1,084	1,084	+0	open	—	04-22 11:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$1.8K	1,210	1,210	+0	open	—	06-08 01:15
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	4	$1.8K	940	940	+0	open	—	05-18 18:59
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	2	$1.6K	2,169	2,169	+0	open	—	04-21 00:04
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	2	$1.6K	856	856	+0	open	—	04-20 14:07
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	4	$1.5K	895	895	+0	open	—	04-19 19:29
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	12	$1.5K	988	988	+0	open	—	04-30 00:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	22	$1.4K	1,508	1,181	+327	open	—	04-14 14:33
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	17	$1.4K	759	759	+0	open	—	04-18 07:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 22:46:40	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	SELL	405	13¢	$53	0x953da4…
06-09 21:50:18	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	Yes	BUY	405	14¢	$57	0x4dfa68…
06-09 16:52:42	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	SELL	219	92¢	$202	0xd6fe57…
06-09 16:50:45	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x8aaa07…
06-09 16:45:48	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	SELL	58	90¢	$53	0xc2d4d8…
06-09 16:41:34	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	BUY	558	92¢	$513	0x627498…
06-08 18:51:00	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	423	97¢	$412	0x0d9411…
06-08 18:48:39	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x15c84b…
06-08 18:48:37	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xd803e1…
06-08 17:10:22	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	424	95¢	$402	0x59ef5f…
06-08 01:15:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	438	83¢	$364	0xc1e4f7…
06-07 22:00:27	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	215	49¢	$106	0xa23dd3…
06-07 19:50:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	438	85¢	$372	0xf1c548…
06-06 23:26:48	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	409	49¢	$200	0xf053d0…
06-06 15:39:18	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	312	48¢	$150	0x4e44e1…
06-06 15:39:16	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	313	48¢	$150	0x933c34…
06-04 19:32:01	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Yes	SELL	219	86¢	$188	0xb9a07a…
06-04 18:47:45	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Yes	BUY	219	86¢	$188	0xcfb44e…
06-04 13:05:04	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	314	72¢	$226	0xc02dc9…
06-04 11:59:10	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0xbd095b…
06-04 11:59:09	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	300	70¢	$210	0xe5300a…
06-04 11:56:42	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	628	72¢	$452	0xbc7499…
06-04 00:02:39	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	SELL	485	91¢	$441	0xa2cf1c…
06-03 22:27:03	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	BUY	485	89¢	$432	0x44f149…
05-31 15:20:45	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	SELL	288	96¢	$277	0xd6b5a1…
05-31 15:03:22	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	577	95¢	$548	0x8bd50b…
05-31 10:44:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	772	71¢	$548	0x68a122…
05-31 04:20:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	772	72¢	$556	0x9ec4a9…
05-29 21:04:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	594	93¢	$552	0x566177…
05-29 14:52:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	594	85¢	$505	0xfc86b9…
05-28 20:38:48	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	No	SELL	128	90¢	$116	0x5e1358…
05-28 20:33:40	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	No	SELL	19	90¢	$17	0x6382e8…
05-28 20:33:35	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	No	SELL	412	90¢	$370	0x65633f…
05-28 16:18:15	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	No	BUY	559	87¢	$486	0x9450e0…
05-25 20:55:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	174	38¢	$66	0x06092c…
05-25 20:54:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	38¢	$1	0xe69b39…
05-25 20:53:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0xa9a251…
05-25 20:52:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x2720a6…
05-25 20:50:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x1ecefb…
05-25 20:50:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	711	38¢	$270	0x9bdfd6…
05-25 20:13:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	899	36¢	$324	0x4a464c…
05-25 20:08:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	540	84¢	$454	0xea4e79…
05-25 19:38:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	540	83¢	$448	0x347481…
05-25 14:51:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	533	84¢	$448	0x85ffc0…
05-25 14:46:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	533	84¢	$448	0x9b8f0f…
05-25 14:24:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,448	31¢	$449	0x4617b9…
05-25 13:45:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,448	30¢	$434	0x2bc939…
05-24 23:17:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	71	91¢	$64	0x50d62b…
05-24 23:16:57	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	121	91¢	$110	0x9a4c08…
05-24 23:16:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x06fd8a…
05-24 23:15:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	275	91¢	$250	0x025096…
05-24 22:09:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	472	89¢	$420	0xde9afa…
05-19 01:46:46	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	409	99¢	$407	0x4affee…
05-18 18:59:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xf90826…
05-18 18:59:25	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	815	95¢	$774	0xc610fd…
05-18 18:59:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	SELL	105	95¢	$100	0xfd6104…
05-18 18:59:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	940	95¢	$893	0x94c93b…
05-18 13:08:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	760	88¢	$668	0x696832…
05-18 12:56:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32	88¢	$28	0xcb19a8…
05-18 12:56:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	42	88¢	$37	0x8b1be3…
05-18 12:55:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	686	88¢	$604	0x91c0d5…
05-18 12:51:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,519	87¢	$1,322	0x9c14fa…
05-17 22:08:09	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	264	69¢	$182	0x6f1fad…
05-17 22:04:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	163	67¢	$109	0x979d7d…
05-17 21:08:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	143	66¢	$94	0x121aad…
05-17 21:04:55	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	4	66¢	$3	0x539522…
05-17 21:03:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	15	66¢	$10	0xfb7ad3…
05-17 21:01:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	264	66¢	$174	0x5e184c…
05-17 18:18:17	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	SELL	202	74¢	$150	0xa33d3c…
05-17 17:27:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	1,875	72¢	$1,350	0x3c7e68…
05-17 13:03:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	123	64¢	$79	0x9c0fd4…
05-17 12:44:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	66¢	$20	0x0f0b1a…
05-17 11:51:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	66¢	$2	0x93ba5a…
05-17 11:26:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	66¢	$5	0xd85f55…
05-16 21:11:38	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	409	94¢	$384	0xf1615a…
05-16 20:35:33	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	492	85¢	$418	0xdea1b2…
05-16 20:34:56	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	985	85¢	$839	0xf553a1…
05-16 20:33:25	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	87¢	$13	0x366779…
05-16 20:03:25	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	373	90¢	$335	0x6bd646…
05-16 19:48:43	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,491	89¢	$1,327	0x2f5a92…
05-16 19:06:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	147	71¢	$104	0x1f60f4…
05-16 18:46:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0xe35b96…
05-16 18:44:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0xd5c565…
05-16 18:41:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	71¢	$2	0x2f7797…
05-16 18:37:08	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0x7b96ee…
05-16 18:36:05	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0x300cc3…
05-16 18:34:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0xc1923f…
05-16 18:31:37	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	71¢	$2	0x5861c4…
05-16 18:16:03	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	339	94¢	$317	0xe0c8f6…
05-16 18:16:03	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	159	94¢	$148	0x12873a…
05-16 17:24:27	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	74¢	$12	0x2ca99a…
05-16 17:24:22	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	864	74¢	$639	0x7420d3…
05-16 16:50:55	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	995	93¢	$925	0xc1ce11…
05-16 15:38:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,208	73¢	$881	0xb1db42…
05-16 15:33:02	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,415	73¢	$1,763	0xca53b8…
05-14 09:53:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	52	50¢	$26	0xf0289b…
05-14 08:09:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	193	53¢	$102	0xcb868d…
05-14 07:54:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x385095…
05-14 07:54:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0xcc8e10…
05-14 07:54:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	220	52¢	$114	0x972ac2…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	65	$27.1M	46,177	06-10 05:18
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	63	$587.2K	45,575	06-10 05:25
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	59	$1.08M	17,576	06-10 04:35
Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e	56	$871.2K	10,401	06-10 04:35
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	54	$352.7K	1,407	06-09 23:30
Improbable-Entry 0x7e80…631b	54	$83.8K	1,504	06-10 02:11
Wilted-Burden-Survivor 0xd8d5…8935	53	$588.4K	2,009	06-09 16:26
(anonymous) 0x22f1…6415	50	$140.2K	18,138	06-10 05:27