Realized P&L
+$110
Unrealized P&L
+$1
Hit rate
47.3%
Resolved
1,015
Trades
7,339
lifetime
Volume
$27.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$263
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-24
last 10-25 02:37
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 177 days
Categories
Other
56% 48% +$49
Politics
30% 49% -$28
Tech
7% 67% +$62
Crypto
6% 59% +$22
Pop-Culture
0% 57% +$5
Sports
0% 50% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
55 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? No +30 $20 99¢ $30 +$10 10-14 09:25
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? No +25 $24 97¢ $24 $0 09-13 20:34
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +30 $21 79¢ $24 +$3 10-23 13:06
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? No -20 -$21 98¢ $-20 +$1 09-20 10:49
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -20 -$17 96¢ $-19 -$2 05-16 15:20
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes +19 $12 96¢ $18 +$7 10-21 19:00
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes -20 -$6 88¢ $-18 -$12 09-20 10:49
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes +30 $15 44¢ $13 -$2 10-01 03:08
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? Yes +30 $18 31¢ $9 -$8 10-08 04:21
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +10 $8 82¢ $8 +$0 07-15 22:15
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes +30 $8 26¢ $8 $0 10-23 13:14
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? No -10 -$5 72¢ $-7 -$2 04-28 17:40
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? No +5 $3 95¢ $5 +$2 05-03 23:19
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No -5 -$4 95¢ $-5 -$1 04-28 16:32
Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026? No +5 $4 94¢ $5 +$1 05-05 21:18
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? No +5 $3 94¢ $5 +$2 04-30 07:56
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +5 $4 93¢ $5 +$1 10-13 20:59
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -5 -$4 86¢ $-4 -$1 05-16 17:05
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No +5 $2 86¢ $4 +$2 04-30 02:01
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 No +5 $3 86¢ $4 +$1 07-19 04:57
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? No +5 $4 84¢ $4 +$1 05-05 20:13
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328 Yes +5 $3 82¢ $4 +$1 07-11 14:49
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No +7 $3 55¢ $4 +$0 10-17 01:25
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? Yes +5 $4 73¢ $4 $0 04-30 12:19
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Yes +7 $3 48¢ $3 +$0 10-17 01:25
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes -3 -$3 67¢ $-2 +$0 09-01 16:05
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? No -20 -$4 12¢ $-2 +$2 09-17 05:51
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? No -3 -$1 85¢ $-2 -$1 05-16 15:18
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +19 $6 6¢ $1 -$4 10-21 19:00
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes -3 -$1 38¢ $-1 $0 05-16 17:57