Realized P&L
+$163
Unrealized P&L
+$6
Hit rate
47.7%
Resolved
1,020
Trades
7,391
lifetime
Volume
$27.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$237
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-24
last 10-29 20:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 180 days
Categories
Other
56% 48% +$102
Politics
30% 49% -$28
Tech
8% 67% +$62
Crypto
7% 59% +$22
Pop-Culture
0% 57% +$5
Sports
0% 50% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
58 active days in 12wk • peak 49 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? No +30 $20 99¢ $30 +$10 10-14 09:25
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027? No +25 $24 97¢ $24 $0 09-13 20:34
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Yes +37 $18 64¢ $24 +$6 10-29 20:42
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? No -20 -$21 98¢ $-20 +$1 09-20 10:49
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -20 -$17 96¢ $-19 -$2 05-16 15:20
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes +30 $15 62¢ $19 +$4 10-01 03:08
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes -20 -$6 84¢ $-17 -$11 09-20 10:49
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +10 $8 82¢ $8 +$0 07-15 22:15
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? No -10 -$5 65¢ $-6 -$2 04-28 17:40
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? Yes +30 $18 18¢ $5 -$12 10-08 04:21
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No -5 -$4 96¢ $-5 -$1 04-28 16:32
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? No +5 $3 95¢ $5 +$2 05-03 23:19
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027? No +5 $3 95¢ $5 +$2 04-30 07:56
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +5 $4 94¢ $5 +$1 10-13 20:59
Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026? No +5 $4 94¢ $5 +$1 05-05 21:18
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -5 -$4 89¢ $-4 -$1 05-16 17:05
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by december 31 983 117 No +5 $3 86¢ $4 +$1 07-19 04:57
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? No +5 $4 85¢ $4 +$1 05-05 20:13
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No +5 $2 84¢ $4 +$2 04-30 02:01
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328 Yes +5 $3 80¢ $4 +$1 07-11 14:49
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? Yes +5 $4 79¢ $4 +$0 04-30 12:19
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? No -20 -$4 16¢ $-3 +$1 09-17 05:51
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No +7 $3 38¢ $3 -$1 10-17 01:25
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes -3 -$3 70¢ $-2 +$0 09-01 16:05
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027? Yes +87 $1 3¢ $2 +$1 10-05 17:45
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? No -3 -$1 84¢ $-2 -$1 05-16 15:18
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +2 -$2 82¢ $1 +$3 10-29 20:36
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes -3 -$1 32¢ $-1 +$0 05-16 17:57
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? Yes +5 $1 16¢ $1 -$1 04-30 13:28
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? Yes +5 $1 14¢ $1 $0 09-06 12:07