Light-Bulb — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$385

Unrealized P&L

+$68

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

223

lifetime

Volume

$32.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$146

Open exposure

$479

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-18 21:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

62% 0% $-385

Other

36% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+350	$210	74¢	$261	+$51	06-07 16:22
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?	No	+117	$101	97¢	$113	+$12	06-07 16:17
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	+122	$100	86¢	$105	+$5	06-01 19:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$1.9K	2,020	2,020	+0	open	—	04-02 18:38
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	2	$1.1K	352	784	-432	open	—	06-02 18:55
us forcibly removes khamenei from power by march 31	3	$915	583	583	+0	open	—	03-01 03:22
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	2	$838	499	499	+0	open	—	04-01 07:51
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$711	371	371	+0	open	—	04-01 07:41
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	2	$672	0	676	-676	open	—	03-28 05:49
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	5	$642	3,547	455	+3,093	open	—	04-07 17:09
houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	3	$583	1,302	1,302	+0	open	—	04-04 10:08
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	1	$554	0	560	-560	open	—	01-31 14:56
russia x ukraine ceasefire before us x iran ceasefire	1	$500	560	0	+560	open	—	04-01 07:30
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	2	$447	229	229	+0	open	—	02-19 06:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$445	497	247	+250	open	—	05-02 06:54
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	2	$445	241	241	+0	open	—	03-09 03:54
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	2	$433	278	278	+0	open	—	03-19 09:49
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	2	$427	221	221	+0	open	—	01-31 14:54
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	2	$421	221	221	+0	open	—	01-31 14:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$419	403	203	+200	open	—	04-09 17:07
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$400	533	0	+533	open	—	03-25 18:20
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?	2	$391	211	211	+0	open	—	05-02 09:18
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?	1	$363	0	365	-365	open	—	06-02 18:35
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	2	$349	464	464	+0	open	—	04-08 10:09
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	2	$341	192	192	+0	open	—	03-25 18:41
israel and saudi arabia normalize relations by march 31	1	$334	0	340	-340	open	—	03-07 19:45
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by january 31	1	$316	0	321	-321	open	—	01-24 18:04
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	2	$310	374	0	+374	open	—	06-11 21:35
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	1	$309	0	501	-501	open	—	02-28 03:24
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	1	$308	0	362	-362	open	—	05-31 21:09
nato x russia military clash by march 31 2026	1	$301	0	301	-301	open	—	04-01 08:16
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	1	$300	400	0	+400	open	—	04-01 07:35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$300	323	0	+323	open	—	03-15 17:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 21:45:01	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	263	100¢	$262	0x92f7bd…
06-18 21:44:49	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	278	100¢	$277	0xec81cc…
06-17 11:35:58	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$20	0x8583e1…
06-17 11:35:35	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	15,000	0¢	$30	0x645145…
06-17 09:41:38	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0x8a4841…
06-15 20:50:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by october 31 2026	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x753e65…
06-15 20:49:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	323	3¢	$10	0x7ec63b…
06-15 20:49:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	1,033	5¢	$51	0xb96fe3…
06-14 21:37:33	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 18 2026	No	BUY	7,200	2¢	$110	0xec6f87…
06-11 21:35:31	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	205	78¢	$160	0x06ac52…
06-09 21:54:22	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	No	SELL	140	73¢	$102	0x956a87…
06-09 16:53:33	Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?	No	BUY	180	83¢	$150	0x253f97…
06-08 08:56:16	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	BUY	111	92¢	$102	0xd70272…
06-08 08:44:25	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	169	89¢	$150	0xb72529…
06-07 16:22:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x16f97c…
06-07 16:21:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	No	BUY	200	58¢	$116	0xbf9daf…
06-07 16:20:37	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	357	42¢	$150	0x0d7705…
06-07 16:17:10	Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31?	No	BUY	117	87¢	$101	0x503f97…
06-07 16:16:09	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	141	3¢	$4	0x301f05…
06-02 19:20:13	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x4b590e…
06-02 19:19:56	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x258d1b…
06-02 19:18:18	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	57	87¢	$50	0x31264c…
06-02 19:17:57	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	126	79¢	$100	0x0f925e…
06-02 19:17:48	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	61	82¢	$50	0xc04f69…
06-02 19:11:21	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30?	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x792a8a…
06-02 19:10:01	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	No	BUY	140	71¢	$100	0x0bab57…
06-02 18:55:06	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	352	97¢	$340	0x1db4cb…
06-02 18:35:09	Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?	No	SELL	365	100¢	$363	0xc38ccb…
06-02 18:34:50	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	784	95¢	$748	0x25e66e…
06-01 19:58:21	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	No	BUY	106	95¢	$100	0xc91509…
06-01 19:13:56	Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xdc2e9b…
06-01 19:13:51	Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0xaf415d…
06-01 17:54:15	US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x4598bb…
06-01 17:53:33	Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30?	No	BUY	113	89¢	$101	0x3160e8…
06-01 17:52:42	US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	91¢	$101	0x9b2366…
06-01 17:48:13	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0x0aca12…
06-01 17:47:27	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xaa82d0…
05-31 21:09:42	Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	No	SELL	362	85¢	$308	0x5c3eb3…
05-31 14:34:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	207	53¢	$110	0x0ae91f…
05-31 14:30:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x738528…
05-31 14:30:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	271	75¢	$203	0xed9694…
05-21 15:56:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x928f1f…
05-17 09:23:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	150	82¢	$123	0xee822e…
05-13 17:52:10	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	131	93¢	$122	0xa2e1a9…
05-02 09:18:14	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	211	90¢	$191	0x1114cc…
05-02 07:30:32	Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31?	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x06d392…
05-02 07:02:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	132	76¢	$100	0x59de70…
05-02 06:57:30	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x475da4…
05-02 06:56:38	Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x235f4e…
05-02 06:54:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	250	80¢	$200	0x1738ea…
05-02 06:54:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	260	77¢	$200	0x4297e5…
05-02 06:53:48	Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x0284c7…
04-29 17:49:08	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	250	92¢	$230	0xd00c6c…
04-29 17:48:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x8c24c2…
04-29 17:47:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0xf1496c…
04-29 17:47:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0xe40a76…
04-11 19:35:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	218	71¢	$155	0x118b0c…
04-11 17:13:03	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	SELL	155	99¢	$155	0x41702b…
04-11 16:37:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	131	77¢	$101	0x0a4fa6…
04-09 17:17:25	us x iran meeting by april 15 2026 533 583	No	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0x8589f1…
04-09 17:12:39	us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895	No	BUY	155	71¢	$110	0xa55c06…
04-09 17:07:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	200	78¢	$156	0x03d710…
04-08 10:10:37	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x5edd62…
04-08 10:09:41	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	464	10¢	$49	0xb08b67…
04-08 01:40:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	203	53¢	$108	0xe61333…
04-08 01:40:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	247	36¢	$89	0x617154…
04-07 17:09:39	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$10	0xd36399…
04-04 10:08:51	houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	Yes	SELL	1,302	22¢	$283	0x5f5cae…
04-02 20:44:11	Will Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in April?	No	BUY	197	70¢	$138	0x330db2…
04-02 18:53:05	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x7fd5d7…
04-02 18:50:19	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	181	83¢	$150	0x25368e…
04-02 18:38:19	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	353	100¢	$353	0xc862a1…
04-02 18:26:31	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	385	39¢	$150	0x7da565…
04-01 08:29:17	houthi strike on israel by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	585	3¢	$20	0x2d4681…
04-01 08:27:59	houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	Yes	BUY	418	24¢	$100	0xd71bd4…
04-01 08:27:33	houthi strike on israel by april 15 2026	Yes	BUY	884	23¢	$200	0x7b0ba5…
04-01 08:16:27	will uae strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	57	100¢	$57	0xbe853e…
04-01 08:16:17	nato x russia military clash by march 31 2026	No	SELL	301	100¢	$301	0x9b9fd2…
04-01 08:14:23	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x8a0bf2…
04-01 07:56:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	247	63¢	$156	0x3c248b…
04-01 07:51:31	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	464	65¢	$300	0x9fc8d4…
04-01 07:51:05	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	No	SELL	499	92¢	$459	0x4bb11c…
04-01 07:42:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	No	BUY	121	91¢	$110	0xfc06b2…
04-01 07:41:41	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	371	100¢	$370	0xeef745…
04-01 07:41:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?	No	BUY	71	85¢	$60	0x7052de…
04-01 07:40:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	BUY	363	69¢	$250	0xc417c7…
04-01 07:39:39	iran leadership change by march 31	No	SELL	123	100¢	$122	0x8a2100…
04-01 07:38:53	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of march 644 777 281 682 546 253	No	SELL	145	100¢	$145	0x7a84f8…
04-01 07:38:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	No	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xd19cc5…
04-01 07:38:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?	No	BUY	222	90¢	$200	0xfb9b2f…
04-01 07:35:23	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	400	75¢	$300	0xa88db4…
04-01 07:34:23	Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30?	No	BUY	217	92¢	$200	0x329fd9…
04-01 07:33:45	Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	BUY	247	81¢	$200	0x61f695…
04-01 07:30:51	russia x ukraine ceasefire before us x iran ceasefire	No	BUY	560	89¢	$500	0xdc0cbc…
04-01 07:29:29	Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xbd2b15…
04-01 07:29:25	Will Bahrain strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x4e0462…
04-01 07:29:17	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x9184eb…
04-01 07:23:25	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	317	63¢	$200	0x80e72d…
04-01 07:21:19	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	250	60¢	$150	0x786ee2…
03-28 05:51:49	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	201	96¢	$193	0x73a724…