Realized P&L
-$2.41K
Unrealized P&L
-$638
Hit rate
27.9%
Resolved
11
Trades
7,411
lifetime
Volume
$316.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$43
Open exposure
$7.55K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 14:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
60% 25% $-3,127
Other
38% 67% +$719
Sports
2%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 133 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No +1,901 $1,767 98¢ $1.9K +$88 07-10 18:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +1,900 $1,189 54¢ $1.0K $-172 07-17 00:51
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,198 $704 72¢ $869 +$164 07-19 00:10
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +2,698 $891 22¢ $580 $-310 07-19 12:00
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No -520 $-469 92¢ $-479 $-10 07-16 22:21
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No -521 $-289 78¢ $-409 $-121 06-11 11:36
NATO article 5 before 2027? No -341 $-300 92¢ $-315 $-15 05-29 16:44
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? No +302 $244 94¢ $282 +$38 07-14 09:15
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +396 $303 66¢ $259 $-44 06-18 13:23
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? No +237 $214 91¢ $216 +$2 07-17 10:53
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No -195 $-167 90¢ $-174 $-8 06-19 23:54
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,200 $330 14¢ $162 $-168 07-07 09:10
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? No -151 $-138 90¢ $-136 +$2 06-15 15:54
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +150 $108 82¢ $123 +$15 07-21 21:10
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? No +119 $95 89¢ $106 +$11 07-20 09:43
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No -100 $-97 97¢ $-97 $-0 07-17 23:03
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +100 $93 94¢ $94 +$2 06-17 10:00
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? No +73 $69 97¢ $71 +$2 06-29 17:25
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes +500 $54 12¢ $57 +$3 07-19 10:04
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No +50 $37 84¢ $42 +$5 07-06 16:23
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes -164 $-92 24¢ $-39 +$53 06-26 17:09
Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? No -40 $-38 97¢ $-39 $-1 07-08 10:35
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No +103 $17 26¢ $27 +$10 06-17 13:45
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? Yes +130 $21 20¢ $26 +$4 06-27 06:34
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No +31 $21 80¢ $25 +$4 07-02 14:27
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Yes +80 $10 21¢ $17 +$7 07-17 01:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +1,200 $219 $15 $-204 07-06 10:05
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes +107 $-2 12¢ $12 +$15 06-27 22:35
Will Trump nationalize elections? Yes +50 $6 15¢ $8 +$1 07-16 13:56
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -2 $8 94¢ $-2 $-10 07-17 17:03