Realized P&L
-$2.41K
Unrealized P&L
-$666
Hit rate
27.9%
Resolved
11
Trades
7,421
lifetime
Volume
$317.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$43
Open exposure
$7.65K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-22 17:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
60% 25% $-3,127
Other
38% 67% +$719
Sports
2%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 133 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No +1,901 $1,767 97¢ $1.8K +$78 07-10 18:46
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +2,028 $1,257 52¢ $1.0K $-213 07-22 21:28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,298 $775 72¢ $928 +$153 07-22 09:25
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +2,698 $891 22¢ $580 $-310 07-19 12:00
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No -520 $-469 92¢ $-479 $-10 07-16 22:21
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No -521 $-289 78¢ $-409 $-121 06-11 11:36
NATO article 5 before 2027? No -341 $-300 92¢ $-315 $-15 05-29 16:44
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? No +302 $244 94¢ $282 +$38 07-14 09:15
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +396 $303 66¢ $263 $-40 06-18 13:23
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? No +237 $214 90¢ $214 $-1 07-17 10:53
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No -195 $-167 89¢ $-173 $-7 06-19 23:54
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,200 $330 14¢ $162 $-168 07-07 09:10
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? No -151 $-138 90¢ $-136 +$2 06-15 15:54
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +150 $108 82¢ $122 +$14 07-21 21:10
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? No +119 $95 90¢ $108 +$13 07-20 09:43
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No -100 $-97 97¢ $-97 $-0 07-17 23:03
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +100 $93 94¢ $94 +$2 06-17 10:00
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? No +73 $69 97¢ $71 +$2 06-29 17:25
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes +500 $54 12¢ $57 +$3 07-19 10:04
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No +50 $37 86¢ $43 +$6 07-06 16:23
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes -164 $-92 24¢ $-39 +$53 06-26 17:09
Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? No -40 $-38 97¢ $-39 $-1 07-08 10:35
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? Yes +130 $21 22¢ $29 +$7 06-27 06:34
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No +103 $17 26¢ $27 +$10 06-17 13:45
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? No +31 $21 80¢ $25 +$4 07-02 14:27
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $-3 $17 +$20 07-22 10:51
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Yes +80 $10 20¢ $16 +$7 07-17 01:29
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes +107 $-2 12¢ $12 +$15 06-27 22:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +1,200 $219 $11 $-208 07-06 10:05
Will Trump nationalize elections? Yes +50 $6 16¢ $8 +$1 07-16 13:56