Realized P&L
-$2.41K
Unrealized P&L
-$282
Hit rate
27.9%
Resolved
11
Trades
7,068
lifetime
Volume
$297.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$42
Open exposure
$11.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 18:50
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
61% 25% $-3,127
Other
38% 67% +$719
Sports
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 133 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No +4,401 $4,180 96¢ $4.2K +$34 06-29 17:28
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No -995 $-895 100¢ $-993 $-98 06-19 19:09
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -1,102 $-981 86¢ $-942 +$38 06-15 13:44
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +998 $948 92¢ $913 $-35 06-23 21:38
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +2,380 $878 30¢ $702 $-176 06-19 23:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +500 $303 82¢ $413 +$110 06-28 04:34
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No -521 $-289 70¢ $-368 $-79 06-11 11:36
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? No +402 $335 88¢ $354 +$18 06-15 19:10
NATO article 5 before 2027? No -341 $-300 92¢ $-314 $-14 05-29 16:44
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +396 $303 66¢ $263 $-40 06-18 13:23
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No -195 $-167 85¢ $-166 +$1 06-19 23:54
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +800 $262 20¢ $156 $-106 06-18 03:18
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? No +165 $137 84¢ $139 +$2 06-28 02:42
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? No -151 $-138 90¢ $-136 +$2 06-15 15:54
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No +100 $99 100¢ $100 +$1 06-15 17:14
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No -100 $-98 100¢ $-100 $-2 05-31 11:59
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? No -100 $-96 99¢ $-99 $-3 06-23 15:20
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +100 $93 94¢ $94 +$1 06-17 10:00
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No -84 $-89 99¢ $-84 +$5 06-27 23:00
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +100 $80 81¢ $81 +$1 06-27 23:26
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? No -70 $-69 100¢ $-70 $-1 05-28 09:01
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? No +73 $69 94¢ $68 $-1 06-29 17:25
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes -164 $-92 30¢ $-50 +$42 06-26 17:09
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No -50 $-48 99¢ $-50 $-2 06-01 13:20
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? No +33 $30 94¢ $31 +$1 06-20 14:31
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? No -33 $-29 88¢ $-30 $-0 06-16 05:24
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes -200 $-39 14¢ $-27 +$12 06-29 12:35
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes +200 $29 14¢ $27 $-2 06-03 03:05
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? No +103 $17 25¢ $26 +$9 06-17 13:45
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? Yes +130 $21 16¢ $20 $-1 06-27 06:34