Alarmed-Reward — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$277

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

21.2%

Resolved

108

Trades

202

lifetime

Volume

$789

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-09

last 06-04 18:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 21 days

Categories

Other

62% 18% -$81

Politics

38% 5% -$192

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% 0% -$2

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$1

Tech

0% 0% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-04).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	Yes		+19	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	06-04 18:45
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Yes		+10	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	05-19 10:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	11	$200	1,262	1,262	+0	open	—	05-18 05:13
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	8	$150	6,643	1,661	+4,982	No	-$93	05-18 21:29
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026?	3	$46	46,000	0	+46,000	No	-$46	05-09 18:11
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	9	$39	2,982	0	+2,982	No	-$39	05-20 08:53
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	5	$23	836	836	+0	No	-$1	06-04 18:34
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	3	$20	106	106	+0	No	-$4	05-19 10:18
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	5	$19	2,618	0	+2,618	No	-$19	05-21 06:54
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	6	$18	1,182	1,056	+126	Yes	+$12	05-15 22:45
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?	3	$18	77	62	+14	Yes	+$14	05-15 21:38
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	3	$14	143	125	+18	No	+$2	05-15 14:25
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	4	$12	12,000	0	+12,000	Yes	-$12	05-18 21:43
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	2	$11	14	14	+0	Yes	+$9	05-15 22:48
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	2	$11	53	53	+0	No	+$1	05-11 11:07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$10	10,000	0	+10,000	Yes	-$10	05-09 15:53
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	2	$9	262	262	+0	No	-$1	05-19 09:58
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	3	$9	56	56	+0	open	—	05-20 08:53
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	4	$8	193	193	+0	Yes	+$0	05-21 06:53
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?	3	$8	120	120	+0	No	+$2	05-19 15:35
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	3	$7	144	105	+39	Yes	-$1	05-19 09:51
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	3	$7	1,143	143	+1,000	Yes	+$3	05-16 23:59
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?	1	$6	3,000	0	+3,000	No	-$6	05-09 16:15
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	1	$5	40	0	+40	No	-$5	05-11 11:14
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	3	$5	611	500	+111	No	+$1	05-19 10:57
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	1	$5	72	0	+72	Yes	-$5	05-11 07:37
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	2	$4	500	500	+0	No	+$2	05-15 17:35
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	2	$4	6	6	+0	Yes	+$2	05-12 21:54
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$4	203	0	+203	Yes	-$4	05-26 18:18
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	2	$4	95	95	+0	open	—	05-26 18:12
Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?	2	$3	104	104	+0	No	-$1	05-19 10:30
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?	2	$3	1,167	0	+1,167	No	-$3	05-12 21:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 18:48:06	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xcc2283…
06-04 18:45:43	Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x693641…
06-04 18:35:09	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	45	1¢	$0	0x5d2077…
06-04 18:34:37	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	113	2¢	$2	0x19b1d2…
05-27 14:36:55	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	No	BUY	21	9¢	$2	0xeb9106…
05-27 14:32:09	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?	Yes	SELL	19	1¢	$0	0xab7ffa…
05-27 14:31:57	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xd09be5…
05-27 14:31:41	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?	Yes	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0x716e49…
05-26 18:18:19	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x9ee93c…
05-26 18:18:01	Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	11¢	$1	0xb02e40…
05-26 18:15:57	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	150	2¢	$3	0x850f83…
05-26 18:12:31	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	95	2¢	$2	0x26d21b…
05-25 21:46:19	Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?	Yes	SELL	32	3¢	$1	0xdbe52e…
05-21 09:28:32	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x7ee737…
05-21 09:28:09	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	12¢	$1	0x90ff17…
05-21 06:54:36	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	955	0¢	$2	0x708214…
05-21 06:54:20	US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	2¢	$1	0x3a8007…
05-21 06:53:41	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xc53ee5…
05-21 06:53:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	93	2¢	$2	0x209bcc…
05-20 08:53:35	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	953	0¢	$3	0xc87cee…
05-20 08:53:17	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	8¢	$2	0x4e281e…
05-19 21:00:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xb740fb…
05-19 20:55:16	Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x5645a3…
05-19 19:26:16	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 19?	Up	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xf12c1a…
05-19 19:25:08	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on May 19?	Up	BUY	113	1¢	$1	0x82bdbf…
05-19 15:35:30	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?	Yes	SELL	120	4¢	$5	0xca2ceb…
05-19 11:52:58	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$2	0xdf9922…
05-19 11:52:39	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	8¢	$2	0x13f943…
05-19 11:00:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	93	2¢	$2	0xfad304…
05-19 10:59:37	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x254187…
05-19 10:57:47	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xa13268…
05-19 10:57:29	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	1¢	$3	0x8e0b4f…
05-19 10:51:31	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0xc704f5…
05-19 10:30:41	Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?	Yes	SELL	104	1¢	$1	0x9eb9da…
05-19 10:30:15	US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	1¢	$1	0xbd9ed7…
05-19 10:28:39	NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xeaa172…
05-19 10:27:50	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	113	2¢	$2	0x347064…
05-19 10:24:27	Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x7aac14…
05-19 10:24:06	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xb52cb0…
05-19 10:19:20	Will Putin visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x5e651c…
05-19 10:18:03	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	106	8¢	$8	0x33c8db…
05-19 10:09:38	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0xbb7d42…
05-19 09:58:34	Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	Yes	SELL	262	2¢	$4	0x14cc5c…
05-19 09:51:06	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	No	BUY	39	5¢	$2	0x023e47…
05-19 09:51:01	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?	Yes	BUY	48	4¢	$2	0x3ded38…
05-19 09:50:19	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	No	SELL	105	3¢	$3	0x51471c…
05-19 09:32:21	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0x3fe1a2…
05-19 09:28:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x93cbeb…
05-19 08:53:37	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x213f9b…
05-19 08:53:21	Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?	Yes	SELL	54	2¢	$1	0x1cb160…
05-19 08:49:53	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	No	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0x973283…
05-18 21:43:34	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0xdfc8c0…
05-18 21:42:17	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	No	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x74f62a…
05-18 21:41:39	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x5aa6ea…
05-18 21:41:18	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xe26cf8…
05-18 21:38:12	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x3b8682…
05-18 21:38:09	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xbc6165…
05-18 21:38:04	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf81831…
05-18 21:38:00	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xa47cff…
05-18 21:37:50	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xe9ddeb…
05-18 21:37:46	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in May?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x9bb397…
05-18 21:37:29	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x47743e…
05-18 21:37:23	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0x4c7de7…
05-18 21:37:16	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x156e35…
05-18 21:37:11	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xeaa0e1…
05-18 21:37:06	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in May?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x59ed7b…
05-18 21:37:02	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May?	Yes	BUY	124	1¢	$1	0xc386bf…
05-18 21:29:38	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	1,661	2¢	$28	0x1761fc…
05-18 21:22:50	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xaa9ce4…
05-18 21:22:38	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x0cbc7d…
05-18 21:22:34	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	1¢	$1	0x862247…
05-18 21:22:27	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	1¢	$1	0xa22b4f…
05-18 21:21:26	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x316354…
05-18 21:18:35	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	10¢	$10	0x7f9344…
05-18 14:04:19	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3,914	2¢	$90	0x11e1d4…
05-18 08:38:31	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	970	1¢	$9	0xe2f705…
05-18 08:38:07	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	723	1¢	$9	0x98e5bd…
05-18 05:14:35	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	778	1¢	$7	0x813b16…
05-18 05:14:20	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	556	1¢	$5	0xb405a7…
05-18 05:14:14	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	556	1¢	$5	0x5b2b1e…
05-18 05:13:55	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	249	7¢	$18	0x662781…
05-17 22:12:38	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in May?	Yes	BUY	105	2¢	$2	0xa18d7a…
05-17 22:12:31	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in May?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x61adc7…
05-17 22:12:22	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in May?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xe9bc7f…
05-17 22:09:36	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	7¢	$5	0x46bd8a…
05-17 21:20:41	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x7eda47…
05-17 21:20:13	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x1f8ff9…
05-17 21:18:32	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	7¢	$3	0x3118e8…
05-17 15:45:48	Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k?	Yes	BUY	213	0¢	$1	0x1cc9d4…
05-17 15:42:46	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	317	2¢	$5	0xd3160c…
05-17 15:40:29	Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xfa7921…
05-17 15:38:50	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xded936…
05-17 15:36:59	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x888495…
05-17 15:36:26	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	131	7¢	$9	0x0fef6e…
05-17 11:08:55	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	95	2¢	$2	0x9f5c8e…
05-17 11:08:31	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	7¢	$2	0x3e80c7…
05-17 10:33:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x2c9d25…
05-17 10:33:18	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	7¢	$2	0x244cdd…
05-17 09:24:11	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	148	3¢	$4	0xead0cd…
05-17 09:24:00	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	357	3¢	$10	0x6dc5d3…