Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
open
Total volume
$1,460
Trades
77
Unique wallets
37
Liquidity
$17,798
Latest YES mid
2¢
Latest NO mid
98¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-27
last 06-18 11:08
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+96.3¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $16
vs crowd: 4% YES on $869)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐬 Dolphin | 4 | $21 | $252 | $231 |
| 🐟 Fish | 5 | — | $16 | $16 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 28 | $12 | $569 | $557 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | $16 | — | +$16 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | $115 | $115 |
| Median | 7 | — | $97 | $97 |
| Below median | 5 | — | $2 | $2 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | $196 | $196 |
| unranked | 20 | $17 | $427 | $410 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | +494 | $13 | $19 | 18 | 06-16 04:40 |
| Odd-Street 0x4366…c73e | No | +202 | $196 | $196 | 1 | 05-27 21:01 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | +200 | $5 | $5 | 5 | 06-15 07:46 |
| Pitiful-Laugh 0xaaa7…746a | No | +103 | $100 | $100 | 1 | 06-01 09:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x6dec…1b8c | No | +100 | $97 | $97 | 1 | 06-11 19:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x96d3…6739 | No | +68 | $66 | $66 | 1 | 06-11 14:53 |
| Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | +57 | $56 | $56 | 2 | 06-12 17:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x8591…9abe | No | +53 | $52 | $52 | 1 | 06-11 14:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xf47e…4179 | No | +53 | $52 | $52 | 1 | 06-11 19:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xc0e8…fbe3 | No | +51 | $50 | $50 | 2 | 06-01 11:31 |
| (anonymous) 0x948a…5d1d | No | +46 | $45 | $45 | 2 | 06-11 19:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x7353…71a4 | No | +28 | $27 | $27 | 1 | 06-06 10:22 |
| Motionless-Anything 0xb1e0…d60c | No | +15 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 06-01 11:31 |
| Boring-Pincenez 0x6f0f…5f89 | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 4 | 06-18 11:08 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-18 11:08:47 | Boring-Pincenez 0x6f0f…5f89 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xc7ae57… |
| 06-18 11:08:47 | (anonymous) 0x763c…b167 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xc7ae57… |
| 06-18 04:53:43 | Boring-Pincenez 0x6f0f…5f89 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x07e8ad… |
| 06-18 04:53:43 | Pretty-Bait 0xd8d2…2fd3 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0x07e8ad… |
| 06-17 20:16:44 | Early-Supernatural 0x9c6f…8b32 | No | SELL | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x813725… |
| 06-17 20:16:44 | Boring-Pincenez 0x6f0f…5f89 | No | BUY | 3 | 98¢ | $3 | 0x813725… |
| 06-16 04:40:10 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xf3f736… |
| 06-16 04:40:10 | Pretty-Bait 0xd8d2…2fd3 | No | BUY | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xf3f736… |
| 06-15 07:46:28 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xcae4c4… |
| 06-15 07:46:28 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 96 | 2¢ | $2 | 0xcae4c4… |
| 06-15 07:46:28 | (anonymous) 0x03f9…1f57 | Yes | SELL | 200 | 2¢ | $5 | 0xcae4c4… |
| 06-13 20:22:31 | Ornate-Kitten-Verve 0xda94…461c | Yes | SELL | 143 | 3¢ | $4 | 0xbd2dc9… |
| 06-13 20:22:31 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 44 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xbd2dc9… |
| 06-13 20:22:31 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xbd2dc9… |
| 06-12 17:28:13 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | BUY | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0x8de401… |
| 06-12 17:28:13 | Closed-Rating 0x505e…affc | No | SELL | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0x8de401… |
| 06-12 07:07:54 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xb51f6e… |
| 06-12 07:07:54 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xb51f6e… |
| 06-12 07:07:54 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xb51f6e… |
| 06-12 07:05:13 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | SELL | 19 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x93ad04… |
| 06-12 07:05:13 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 19 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x93ad04… |
| 06-12 06:57:21 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 35 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x3a8132… |
| 06-12 06:57:21 | (anonymous) 0xf148…e1f1 | No | SELL | 22 | 97¢ | $21 | 0x3a8132… |
| 06-12 06:57:21 | (anonymous) 0xb143…3c17 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x3a8132… |
| 06-12 06:57:21 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0x3a8132… |
| 06-12 06:57:21 | (anonymous) 0x7600…787e | Yes | SELL | 250 | 3¢ | $7 | 0x3a8132… |
| 06-12 06:57:21 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | Yes | BUY | 50 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x3a8132… |
| 06-11 19:52:31 | (anonymous) 0x7600…787e | Yes | BUY | 250 | 3¢ | $7 | 0x6a4398… |
| 06-11 19:52:31 | (anonymous) 0x6dec…1b8c | No | BUY | 100 | 97¢ | $97 | 0x6a4398… |
| 06-11 19:52:31 | Boring-Pincenez 0x6f0f…5f89 | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x6a4398… |
| 06-11 19:52:31 | (anonymous) 0xf47e…4179 | No | BUY | 53 | 97¢ | $52 | 0x6a4398… |
| 06-11 19:52:31 | (anonymous) 0x948a…5d1d | No | BUY | 22 | 97¢ | $21 | 0x6a4398… |
| 06-11 19:52:31 | Elated-Sombrero 0x40c5…5cba | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $49 | 0x6a4398… |
| 06-11 19:52:31 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | BUY | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0x6a4398… |
| 06-11 14:53:15 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 55 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x952fa4… |
| 06-11 14:53:15 | (anonymous) 0x96d3…6739 | No | BUY | 68 | 97¢ | $66 | 0x952fa4… |
| 06-11 14:53:15 | (anonymous) 0x948a…5d1d | No | BUY | 24 | 97¢ | $24 | 0x952fa4… |
| 06-11 14:53:15 | (anonymous) 0x8591…9abe | No | BUY | 53 | 97¢ | $52 | 0x952fa4… |
| 06-11 14:53:15 | Amusing-Encirclement 0x590a…3699 | No | SELL | 200 | 97¢ | $194 | 0x952fa4… |
| 06-10 05:31:01 | Hard-To-Find-Pianist 0xeae9…d1c4 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x2d55ff… |
| 06-10 05:31:01 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x2d55ff… |
| 06-09 08:20:55 | (anonymous) 0x2576…9f2d | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x65e63a… |
| 06-09 08:20:55 | (anonymous) 0xf148…e1f1 | No | SELL | 29 | 97¢ | $28 | 0x65e63a… |
| 06-09 08:20:55 | Handy-Guava 0xc95f…7d23 | Yes | SELL | 34 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x65e63a… |
| 06-07 04:25:39 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x0bdeab… |
| 06-07 04:25:39 | hisimba 0xe767…d58c | No | SELL | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x0bdeab… |
| 06-06 10:22:12 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 28 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xbd1db3… |
| 06-06 10:22:12 | (anonymous) 0x7353…71a4 | No | BUY | 28 | 97¢ | $27 | 0xbd1db3… |
| 06-06 05:54:49 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xadec22… |
| 06-06 05:54:49 | Hard-To-Find-Pianist 0xeae9…d1c4 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xadec22… |
| 06-01 11:31:24 | (anonymous) 0xc0e8…fbe3 | No | BUY | 30 | 97¢ | $29 | 0x2f76bb… |
| 06-01 11:31:24 | Ornate-Kitten-Verve 0xda94…461c | Yes | BUY | 71 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x2f76bb… |
| 06-01 11:31:24 | Motionless-Anything 0xb1e0…d60c | No | BUY | 10 | 97¢ | $10 | 0x2f76bb… |
| 06-01 11:31:24 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | SELL | 32 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x2f76bb… |
| 06-01 11:09:04 | Ornate-Kitten-Verve 0xda94…461c | Yes | BUY | 71 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xb40d3a… |
| 06-01 11:09:04 | (anonymous) 0xf148…e1f1 | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $49 | 0xb40d3a… |
| 06-01 11:09:04 | (anonymous) 0xc0e8…fbe3 | No | BUY | 21 | 97¢ | $21 | 0xb40d3a… |
| 06-01 09:45:11 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x3970ad… |
| 06-01 09:45:11 | Pitiful-Laugh 0xaaa7…746a | No | BUY | 103 | 97¢ | $100 | 0x3970ad… |
| 05-30 20:26:24 | Motionless-Anything 0xb1e0…d60c | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x05c523… |
| 05-30 20:26:24 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x05c523… |
| 05-30 03:45:28 | Straight-Folder 0x591b…54e7 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xafdba9… |
| 05-30 03:45:28 | (anonymous) 0xf148…e1f1 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xafdba9… |
| 05-28 12:47:58 | (anonymous) 0xabf2…83ed | No | SELL | 51 | 97¢ | $50 | 0x0aeaf8… |
| 05-28 12:47:58 | (anonymous) 0x834b…1f64 | No | SELL | 52 | 97¢ | $51 | 0x0aeaf8… |
| 05-28 12:47:58 | (anonymous) 0x1dd9…21cc | No | SELL | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0x0aeaf8… |
| 05-28 12:47:58 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 98 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x0aeaf8… |
| 05-28 12:47:58 | Impure-Plowman 0x7be6…e1f9 | Yes | SELL | 435 | 3¢ | $12 | 0x0aeaf8… |
| 05-28 12:47:58 | (anonymous) 0xfadc…698b | No | SELL | 47 | 97¢ | $46 | 0x0aeaf8… |
| 05-28 12:47:58 | (anonymous) 0xa654…ec03 | No | SELL | 42 | 97¢ | $41 | 0x0aeaf8… |
| 05-28 12:47:58 | New-Structure 0xcf47…2c4b | No | SELL | 40 | 97¢ | $39 | 0x0aeaf8… |
| 05-28 04:47:40 | (anonymous) 0xfadc…698b | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xea5a12… |
| 05-28 04:47:40 | Straight-Folder 0x591b…54e7 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xea5a12… |
| 05-27 21:01:34 | (anonymous) 0x0afd…e79e | No | SELL | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0x489c89… |
| 05-27 21:01:34 | Odd-Street 0x4366…c73e | No | BUY | 202 | 97¢ | $196 | 0x489c89… |
| 05-27 21:01:34 | (anonymous) 0x4a5c…1f47 | No | SELL | 19 | 97¢ | $19 | 0x489c89… |
| 05-27 21:01:34 | Harmful-Prevention 0xd600…b66e | Yes | BUY | 98 | 3¢ | $3 | 0x489c89… |