Direct-Crewman — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$35

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

45.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,576

lifetime

Volume

$3.66K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-14

last 06-30 12:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Politics

45% — —

Other

42% 44% $-11

Sports

11% 39% $-24

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 75 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	62	$173	454	434	+20	open	—	05-30 10:32
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	16	$79	65	70	-4	open	—	05-25 23:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	21	$54	140	140	+0	open	—	05-25 06:46
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	20	$53	41	47	-6	open	—	05-23 08:28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	15	$47	118	138	-20	open	—	06-14 14:35
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	22	$47	196	198	-1	open	—	06-14 17:25
Pistons vs. Magic	6	$47	46	45	+1	open	—	05-02 02:20
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	7	$43	100	56	+45	open	—	05-23 09:33
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	13	$41	55	55	+0	open	—	06-20 13:43
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	20	$40	122	142	-20	open	—	05-30 10:32
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	16	$38	155	155	+0	open	—	06-20 02:47
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	16	$37	48	48	+0	open	—	06-19 17:40
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	16	$37	90	90	-0	open	—	06-14 18:23
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Mattia Bellucci	10	$36	45	40	+5	Mattia Bellucci	+$10	05-07 13:41
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	16	$35	54	59	-5	open	—	05-27 11:29
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	15	$35	403	398	+5	open	—	06-07 19:51
starmer out by june 22 2026	13	$35	30	30	+0	open	—	06-21 12:40
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	10	$32	26	26	-0	open	—	06-12 10:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	12	$31	57	57	+0	open	—	04-21 12:06
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	9	$31	17	22	-5	open	—	05-24 00:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	12	$30	37	37	+0	open	—	04-22 12:57
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?	8	$29	23	23	+0	open	—	05-28 19:47
will trump speak to elon musk in june	5	$28	22	22	+0	open	—	06-30 12:11
Lakers vs. Thunder	10	$27	124	84	+39	Thunder	$-6	05-05 23:38
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	9	$26	26	26	+0	open	—	06-17 20:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	10	$25	50	72	-22	open	—	05-28 19:47
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	8	$24	51	14	+38	open	—	06-16 23:20
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	8	$24	16	16	+0	open	—	06-25 14:15
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	20	$24	123	158	-35	open	—	05-29 11:12
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	8	$24	16	16	+0	open	—	05-29 08:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 12:40:37	will the next uk election be called by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x526714…
06-30 12:14:01	Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1d7d70…
06-30 12:13:58	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9ec4f1…
06-30 12:13:55	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xf2331f…
06-30 12:13:50	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x76a1fa…
06-30 12:13:44	spacex vs tesla higher valuation on june 30	SpaceX	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x30a1c5…
06-30 12:13:43	nick fuentes arrested by june 30	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x39ad87…
06-30 12:13:37	Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026?	No	SELL	4	81¢	$3	0x92b3c8…
06-30 12:13:32	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0x388b3a…
06-30 12:13:22	us bank failure by june 30 227	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xf7661d…
06-30 12:13:16	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x20f970…
06-30 12:13:11	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x410256…
06-30 12:13:08	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x9726cb…
06-30 12:13:05	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x2c4cf9…
06-30 12:13:04	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x799f98…
06-30 12:13:01	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	7	92¢	$6	0x1de807…
06-30 12:12:59	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x45e271…
06-30 12:12:56	pedro castillo pardoned in 2026	No	SELL	7	85¢	$6	0x7f3eee…
06-30 12:12:55	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x6c44d5…
06-30 12:12:47	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	8	83¢	$6	0x5b58d8…
06-30 12:12:41	Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	8	79¢	$6	0x4cc550…
06-30 12:12:34	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	9	74¢	$7	0xa63a70…
06-30 12:12:32	Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0x6d64e2…
06-30 12:12:25	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x0198d0…
06-30 12:12:17	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0xd54dec…
06-30 12:12:11	will neymar jr score a goal at the 2026 fifa world cup	No	SELL	10	73¢	$7	0x1b218d…
06-30 12:12:07	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0xf826a9…
06-30 12:12:05	Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	No	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0x48967e…
06-30 12:11:53	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	12	54¢	$7	0x6e92b5…
06-30 12:11:40	will the next uk election be called by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x9d7fc0…
06-30 12:11:31	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xfdbf55…
06-30 12:11:28	will trump speak to elon musk in june	No	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x2c241f…
06-30 12:11:25	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	OpenAI	SELL	23	14¢	$3	0xdd9d05…
06-29 20:47:40	will russia capture all of huliaipole by september 30	Yes	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x4c914a…
06-29 20:35:37	will russia capture all of huliaipole by september 30	Yes	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0xcbe0ba…
06-29 16:49:40	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	SELL	4	51¢	$2	0x8b0a82…
06-29 13:14:56	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x557975…
06-29 01:43:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	1	65¢	$1	0x012742…
06-28 08:00:19	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x97c4ea…
06-27 17:17:02	gpt 5pt6 released by july 10 2026 416	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xf93929…
06-27 13:08:29	iran successfully targets shipping by july 14 20260625215135371	No	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x79d8c3…
06-27 10:09:04	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	No	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xc282c5…
06-27 10:08:53	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	No	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0x2b6669…
06-27 10:08:43	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x89f53f…
06-27 10:08:17	iran successfully targets shipping by july 7 20260625215135370	No	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xd97ae0…
06-27 10:04:40	iran successfully targets shipping by june 27 20260625215135368	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x7d71cd…
06-27 09:55:28	iran successfully targets shipping by june 27 20260625215135368	No	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x108fb0…
06-27 09:54:46	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260625225958880	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x183634…
06-27 09:43:22	iran successfully targets shipping by july 14 20260625215135371	No	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x517619…
06-27 09:39:43	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0xea1670…
06-27 06:42:26	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	4	81¢	$3	0x120e91…
06-27 06:29:53	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0xf49964…
06-26 20:14:16	Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xe85812…
06-26 18:11:23	iran successfully targets shipping by june 27 20260625215135368	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xc8d15c…
06-26 17:15:38	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x248443…
06-26 16:46:49	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0xc41b86…
06-26 16:20:16	iran successfully targets shipping by june 27 20260625215135368	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x83c0ef…
06-26 16:18:35	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	Yes	SELL	14	20¢	$3	0x9b28af…
06-26 14:30:05	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	Yes	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0xb5d97a…
06-26 13:58:52	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x1d9478…
06-26 13:39:34	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0xcdde97…
06-26 13:26:13	untitled market 1 20260625224941800	Yes	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0x9cc7c5…
06-26 13:25:21	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	15	3¢	$0	0xa2383c…
06-26 11:58:26	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x38f743…
06-26 11:04:52	will russia capture all of huliaipole by september 30	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xb5ba1d…
06-26 09:56:08	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	4	66¢	$3	0x3367f9…
06-26 08:08:02	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	Yes	SELL	4	69¢	$3	0x6a142a…
06-26 07:54:40	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	Yes	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0xb3cfba…
06-26 07:53:13	Metamask FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x715f9f…
06-26 05:00:31	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	38¢	$1	0xc87a5a…
06-25 20:25:59	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xcd4537…
06-25 19:58:11	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x259a4a…
06-25 19:57:53	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0x75cdf3…
06-25 19:30:59	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0xc36e43…
06-25 17:44:07	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xec618f…
06-25 15:41:02	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0x52d964…
06-25 15:27:01	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0xcf9a16…
06-25 15:18:28	Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x49ac14…
06-25 14:58:16	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	Yes	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x8fba79…
06-25 14:33:10	will spy dip to 725 by june 22 2026	No	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0xc82f96…
06-25 14:15:23	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	3	83¢	$2	0x88e978…
06-25 14:00:53	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x0c5efd…
06-25 13:48:52	will spy dip to 725 by june 22 2026	No	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x2150ab…
06-25 13:08:40	will russia capture all of huliaipole by september 30	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x115b17…
06-25 12:52:11	will ukraine re enter kamianske by june 30	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x0b03ed…
06-25 06:46:13	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0xcd1a27…
06-25 06:33:43	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x6fb38d…
06-25 06:33:32	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x18c064…
06-24 08:53:38	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x942420…
06-24 08:41:17	will ukraine re enter uspenivka by december 31	Yes	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x018d7c…
06-24 08:41:10	will starmer officially leave office by july 17 20260622151504653	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x139eb4…
06-24 08:28:19	will ukraine re enter uspenivka by december 31	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0xe62b2f…
06-24 08:14:10	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x74f3bd…
06-24 08:01:08	will ukraine re enter uspenivka by december 31	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xda2454…
06-24 05:36:04	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x2562c8…
06-23 16:06:04	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	2	5¢	$0	0xce10fa…
06-23 15:53:13	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	10	5¢	$0	0x3a1c5e…
06-23 07:36:10	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xfd76aa…
06-23 06:33:14	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x214a90…
06-22 16:20:32	spy up or down on june 22 2026	Up	SELL	2	22¢	$1	0x007646…