Realized P&L
-$41
Unrealized P&L
+$168
Hit rate
51.1%
Resolved
40
Trades
5,028
lifetime
Volume
$95.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$19
Open exposure
$1.92K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-15
last 06-22 21:20
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 13 days
Categories
Politics
50% 77% +$150
Crypto
24%
Other
15% 67% +$35
Sports
11% 33% $-226
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
48 active days in 12wk • peak 195 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -1,487 $-1,175 72¢ $-1078 +$97 06-17 03:12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +622 $128 28¢ $171 +$43 06-21 16:04
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +106 $91 94¢ $100 +$10 06-11 02:29
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +112 $89 86¢ $97 +$8 06-19 13:49
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +105 $82 73¢ $76 $-5 06-17 02:19
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +60 $47 86¢ $52 +$4 06-22 21:20
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No +40 $38 96¢ $38 +$0 06-17 02:53
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes +31 $29 96¢ $30 +$1 06-07 15:38
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No +30 $28 98¢ $29 +$1 06-13 12:37
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +30 $28 94¢ $28 +$0 06-08 11:44
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No +30 $28 93¢ $28 $-0 06-15 01:21
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +36 $22 66¢ $23 +$1 06-12 00:46
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No +30 $18 68¢ $20 +$2 06-01 22:09
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +20 $19 92¢ $18 $-0 06-07 16:45
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +39 $18 36¢ $14 $-4 06-22 05:03
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes +10 $4 100¢ $10 +$7 06-19 12:52
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +13 $8 73¢ $10 +$1 06-22 20:27
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? No +10 $9 96¢ $10 +$0 06-21 16:17
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? No +10 $9 96¢ $10 +$0 06-08 13:01
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +10 $9 95¢ $9 +$0 06-05 04:16
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes +10 $9 92¢ $9 +$0 06-03 08:52
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? No +10 $9 90¢ $9 +$0 06-16 10:01
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No +10 $9 90¢ $9 +$0 06-06 22:33
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No +10 $9 89¢ $9 $-0 06-07 16:22
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +10 $3 82¢ $8 +$6 06-10 15:37
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +31 $10 27¢ $8 $-2 06-08 01:42
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +10 $8 70¢ $7 $-1 06-15 08:42
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +20 $5 14¢ $3 $-3 06-18 17:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +12 $4 18¢ $2 $-2 06-02 11:59
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes +11 $2 15¢ $2 $-0 06-11 19:07