Realized P&L
-$15.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$263
Hit rate
54.5%
Resolved
591
Trades
6,977
lifetime
Volume
$126.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$18
Open exposure
$1.42K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-15
last 08-21 01:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 100 days
Categories
Politics
54% 57% -$12,002
Crypto
18% 68% +$973
Other
16% 66% -$4,854
Sports
11% 48% +$172
Tech
1% 79% +$175
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$2
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
1 active day in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -160 -$149 94¢ $-150 -$1 08-21 01:53
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -175 -$193 80¢ $-141 +$52 06-17 03:12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +648 $131 20¢ $126 -$4 06-21 16:04
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +121 $91 86¢ $104 +$14 06-18 03:50
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +90 $67 94¢ $85 +$18 06-22 21:20
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +91 $43 68¢ $61 +$19 05-29 14:21
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No +60 $55 97¢ $58 +$3 06-15 01:21
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +85 $46 59¢ $51 +$4 06-09 20:55
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No +50 $46 98¢ $49 +$3 06-13 12:37
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +50 $45 97¢ $49 +$3 05-26 13:11
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +53 $38 80¢ $42 +$4 06-15 08:42
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +40 $24 97¢ $39 +$15 05-27 05:10
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No +40 $38 96¢ $38 +$1 06-17 02:53
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +36 $33 96¢ $34 +$1 05-18 16:30
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +46 $29 75¢ $34 +$6 06-12 00:46
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +82 $12 41¢ $33 +$21 06-15 04:08
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes +31 $29 99¢ $31 +$2 06-07 15:38
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +30 $28 96¢ $29 +$1 06-08 11:44
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +30 $15 94¢ $28 +$13 05-13 13:03
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No +30 $26 92¢ $28 +$2 05-17 02:45
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +40 $17 68¢ $27 +$10 05-13 10:22
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -29 -$50 86¢ $-25 +$24 08-21 01:53
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No +30 $18 70¢ $21 +$3 06-01 22:09
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +22 -$11 95¢ $21 +$32 08-21 01:58
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +30 $12 70¢ $21 +$9 05-28 03:22
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +26 $16 78¢ $21 +$5 05-09 09:34
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No +20 $19 98¢ $20 +$1 05-13 17:56
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No +20 $19 98¢ $20 +$1 05-13 00:44
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +20 $19 95¢ $19 +$0 06-07 16:45
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? Yes +20 $18 95¢ $19 +$1 06-05 18:55