Realized P&L
+$109
Unrealized P&L
+$5
Hit rate
73.4%
Resolved
77
Trades
2,618
lifetime
Volume
$307.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$117
Open exposure
$182
21 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 07-22 08:05
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 11 days
Categories
Politics
97% 100% +$6
Other
2% 65% +$75
Crypto
1% 100% +$0
Sports
0% 57% +$29
Tech
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
60 active days in 12wk • peak 737 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? Yes +51 $27 64¢ $33 +$6 07-08 23:51
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +36 $33 89¢ $32 $-1 07-20 18:13
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +29 $24 72¢ $21 $-3 07-13 19:44
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No +20 $17 88¢ $18 +$0 07-19 08:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +26 $10 48¢ $13 +$3 07-08 03:03
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No +13 $12 93¢ $12 $-0 07-20 16:02
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +13 $9 88¢ $11 +$3 07-09 02:26
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +10 $8 82¢ $8 $-0 07-21 14:46
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No +6 $5 70¢ $4 $-1 07-16 11:50
US military draft authorized in 2026? No +4 $4 95¢ $4 $-0 07-13 13:12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +5 $4 74¢ $4 $-1 07-12 13:45
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? No +4 $4 92¢ $4 +$0 07-03 04:13
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +4 $4 90¢ $4 $-0 07-19 22:15
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +4 $3 85¢ $3 $-0 07-19 15:50
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No +2 $2 100¢ $2 +$0 07-15 03:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +2 $2 99¢ $2 +$0 07-11 15:00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes -7 $-1 29¢ $-2 $-1 07-13 18:48
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No +2 $2 96¢ $2 +$0 07-21 21:06
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +3 $2 58¢ $2 +$0 07-08 04:32
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes +15 $2 12¢ $2 $-1 07-19 09:57
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +2 $2 74¢ $1 $-0 07-13 14:40