Realized P&L (90d)
+$23.8K
Unrealized P&L
+$14.0K
Hit rate
88.0%
Resolved (90d)
110
Trades (90d)
3,389
28,523 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$1.70M
$15.2M lifetime
Avg / trade
$533
Open exposure
$230.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-29 17:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 166 days
Categories
Politics
68% 74% +$414,092
Other
25% 61% +$53,109
Crypto
6% 49% -$18,874
Tech
1% 73% -$9,046
Sports
0% 60% +$11,429
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$10
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 238 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +50,000 $46,000 92¢ $46.2K +$250 10-28 04:08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +49,116 $42,099 80¢ $39.5K -$2,560 10-22 12:40
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +110,515 $38,097 34¢ $37.0K -$1,075 10-23 10:47
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +22,861 $15,143 71¢ $16.2K +$1,054 10-01 10:28
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +113,808 $16,997 14¢ $15.4K -$1,632 10-27 21:51
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No +19,818 $2,086 55¢ $10.8K +$8,715 10-29 13:53
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? No +12,000 $9,360 71¢ $8.5K -$840 09-23 18:10
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +16,972 $6,087 46¢ $7.8K +$1,720 10-07 19:23
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No +25,436 $6,663 27¢ $6.9K +$205 09-27 14:40
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +31,137 $6,742 20¢ $6.1K -$671 10-15 18:31
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? No +13,300 $2,061 38¢ $5.0K +$2,926 10-26 13:37
Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch? No +8,050 $4,024 56¢ $4.5K +$484 10-20 13:09
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +33,042 $5,094 14¢ $4.5K -$633 10-20 19:09
trump renames new mexico to new america by december 31 2026 No +4,457 $3,877 93¢ $4.1K +$254 09-07 21:43
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +5,000 $3,900 71¢ $3.5K -$350 09-23 12:40
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027? No +8,695 $1,099 40¢ $3.5K +$2,423 10-29 14:32
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? No +4,617 $789 74¢ $3.4K +$2,650 10-29 11:53
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes -2,495 -$1,871 95¢ $-2364 -$493 05-02 15:18
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,453 $781 66¢ $1.6K +$838 10-29 11:49
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027? Yes +1,688 $1,080 60¢ $1.0K -$76 09-21 20:45
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes +787 $614 100¢ $786 +$172 10-09 20:13
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026? Yes +4,457 $415 7¢ $325 -$90 10-21 16:28
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes +10,000 -$209 3¢ $305 +$514 09-15 18:38
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? No +297 $279 94¢ $281 +$2 09-04 18:47
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No -200 -$196 99¢ $-198 -$1 07-31 12:30
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +393 $60 49¢ $192 +$132 10-28 08:24
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? No +3,111 $72 5¢ $162 +$89 10-21 05:53
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No -1,358 -$95 7¢ $-94 +$1 07-31 14:10
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +323 $68 26¢ $82 +$15 10-20 11:11
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? No -54 -$53 100¢ $-54 -$1 07-28 11:35