Complicated-Haversack — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$73

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

17.4%

Resolved

Trades

406

lifetime

Volume

$2.43K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-01

last 08-12 18:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

49% 50% $-13

Politics

32% 40% $-59

Crypto

16% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$71	45	45	+0	open	—	05-02 18:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$61	80	0	+80	open	—	05-28 15:18
will russia capture all of huliaipole by march 31	3	$60	54	54	+0	open	—	04-01 03:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	1	$50	88	0	+88	Yes	$-50	05-05 04:32
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	1	$40	60	0	+60	open	—	06-13 04:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	5	$36	59	0	+59	open	—	05-08 04:07
btc updown 5m 1774781400	1	$35	71	0	+71	open	—	03-29 10:46
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	3	$34	50	0	+50	open	—	05-03 05:07
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$30	124	62	+62	open	—	06-15 03:56
btc updown 5m 1774781100	1	$30	73	0	+73	open	—	03-29 10:45
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	2	$30	40	0	+40	open	—	06-09 03:53
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$29	44	0	+44	open	—	04-03 06:39
btc updown 5m 1772354700	3	$27	50	16	+34	open	—	03-01 08:51
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	3	$23	24	13	+10	open	—	04-14 04:21
btc updown 5m 1774780800	4	$23	57	0	+57	open	—	03-29 10:44
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	5	$21	69	32	+37	open	—	04-08 03:28
will iran strike israel on march 10	3	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	03-14 15:45
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	4	$20	36	0	+36	open	—	05-01 18:03
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	1	$20	28	0	+28	open	—	06-09 03:54
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	1	$20	26	0	+26	open	—	05-30 19:06
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	1	$20	23	0	+23	open	—	05-05 04:33
will russia capture huliaipilske by june 30	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	06-09 03:50
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	1	$20	24	0	+24	open	—	03-29 11:38
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	1	$20	29	0	+29	open	—	03-01 09:41
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?	1	$20	24	0	+24	open	—	05-05 04:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	2	$20	25	0	+25	open	—	05-05 04:37
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	06-08 04:04
btc updown 5m 1775756700	2	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	04-09 17:49
eth updown 5m 1775757900	2	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	04-09 18:09
btc updown 5m 1774805700	3	$18	23	0	+23	open	—	03-29 17:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 18:28:19	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	12	90¢	$11	0x042686…
07-14 04:10:02	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x8aaaac…
06-15 03:56:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	62	17¢	$10	0x8df2d9…
06-15 03:54:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	124	16¢	$20	0x0ae8e9…
06-13 04:50:00	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	No	BUY	60	66¢	$40	0xcb90f5…
06-11 17:33:52	will a new gemini flagship be released by june 19 2026	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x5a4719…
06-11 04:01:09	will russia enter vasylivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xde4c66…
06-11 04:01:00	will russia enter novooleksandrivka by june 30 2026	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x47eb77…
06-10 19:02:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xaa9cf2…
06-09 03:58:10	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x04c735…
06-09 03:54:37	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0xa37998…
06-09 03:53:27	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xa7f684…
06-09 03:50:33	will russia capture huliaipilske by june 30	No	BUY	21	93¢	$20	0xb668a6…
06-08 04:04:16	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x33b1e1…
06-02 04:00:16	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?	No	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0xda5b79…
05-30 19:07:01	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x2a1ea2…
05-30 19:06:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0xff63c0…
05-30 19:05:33	Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	77¢	$3	0x40810d…
05-30 19:04:57	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0x10ed42…
05-28 15:18:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xdc3623…
05-18 19:19:22	Will Russia enter Borova by May 31?	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x99e6f0…
05-15 04:29:39	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xbc8990…
05-11 19:11:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	18	77¢	$14	0x1ed511…
05-08 04:32:49	Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x318c7f…
05-08 04:07:33	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x13efc4…
05-08 04:07:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x437bf0…
05-06 16:31:13	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	79	76¢	$60	0x68c497…
05-06 04:23:04	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x6ff962…
05-05 16:24:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xd4591d…
05-05 16:24:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in May?	No	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x40f4bc…
05-05 04:37:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x1f30e2…
05-05 04:36:44	Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x2ebec5…
05-05 04:36:36	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xa9db53…
05-05 04:35:06	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x35b44e…
05-05 04:33:38	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x9ab4ef…
05-05 04:32:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0x9a724c…
05-04 17:06:44	Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Small Business Summit?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xf8b957…
05-03 18:12:16	Will Trump say "Pope" in May?	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x109897…
05-03 11:40:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	SELL	6	92¢	$5	0xb10721…
05-03 11:39:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xa6d174…
05-03 05:07:20	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x44a434…
05-02 18:11:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	45	100¢	$45	0xa79d5a…
05-02 18:09:04	Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xbef315…
05-02 18:08:58	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x868fcc…
05-02 08:50:42	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xf4a510…
05-01 18:05:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x403a70…
05-01 18:05:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x032331…
05-01 18:03:54	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xa54edb…
05-01 14:31:30	Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x5bbdd7…
05-01 14:31:00	Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xbe7459…
05-01 14:30:40	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0x8edf7d…
05-01 14:30:30	Will Russia capture Sofiivka by May 31?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x98afd7…
05-01 14:30:18	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	No	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xea78e0…
05-01 09:14:46	Canada recession before 2027?	No	SELL	8	79¢	$7	0xfac6a4…
05-01 06:46:38	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xe97f1d…
05-01 06:46:30	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	7¢	$4	0xf38cfa…
05-01 06:46:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x26c262…
05-01 06:46:16	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xdb81b9…
05-01 06:46:08	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xfff092…
05-01 06:39:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x6c34de…
05-01 06:32:34	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x7e4b97…
04-30 16:42:42	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x8c2987…
04-30 16:39:22	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31?	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xa59b84…
04-30 16:38:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x4041dd…
04-26 14:53:34	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	No	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0x6efae7…
04-25 04:12:12	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	19	77¢	$14	0x858a15…
04-24 17:53:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xc46c1e…
04-24 03:31:16	Will Trump say "First Amendment" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x452982…
04-24 03:31:02	Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during WHCA Dinner events?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x47341b…
04-24 03:30:58	Will Trump say "Midterm" or "Election" 3+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x43168d…
04-23 04:05:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xcd161d…
04-22 16:53:58	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0x1e9e1d…
04-21 16:43:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	73¢	$5	0x255791…
04-20 16:55:40	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	12	64¢	$8	0xdabcbb…
04-19 08:31:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0x290f9e…
04-19 06:17:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x539eae…
04-18 03:18:26	QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	No	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xa159c7…
04-17 17:35:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	31	52¢	$16	0x30380f…
04-17 03:58:34	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x55e34d…
04-17 03:57:58	Will Russia capture Pokrovka by April 30?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x9d7809…
04-17 03:56:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xba2867…
04-16 17:49:50	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0xccb295…
04-16 14:30:16	highest temperature in seoul on april 17 2026 18corhigher	Yes	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xd303dd…
04-15 04:03:54	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xcb3b9b…
04-14 04:23:49	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x960bdd…
04-14 04:21:55	Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x74372d…
04-14 04:21:33	Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	13	46¢	$6	0xd339d1…
04-13 14:14:31	Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0xe4b08c…
04-13 04:08:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	No	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0x5bdd29…
04-13 04:08:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	No	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xa60a1d…
04-13 03:58:09	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xc1021c…
04-12 07:15:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xf1fc12…
04-11 18:13:27	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	No	BUY	13	30¢	$4	0x2fbca5…
04-11 18:12:21	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x6de611…
04-11 17:55:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xcc71c7…
04-11 13:40:53	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x61f786…
04-11 03:42:21	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	39¢	$5	0xaee94a…
04-11 03:41:43	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xd98313…
04-11 03:41:17	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	6¢	$5	0xa45280…
04-11 03:41:05	Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	11¢	$5	0x932f16…