Realized P&L
-$778
Unrealized P&L
-$847
Hit rate
49.9%
Resolved
9
Trades
8,896
lifetime
Volume
$451.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$51
Open exposure
$12.2K
29 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 06:38
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 7 days
Categories
Politics
69% 43% $-913
Other
16% 100% +$20
Crypto
10%
Sports
4% 100% +$115
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 108 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +9,884 $8,084 74¢ $7.4K $-721 07-20 11:38
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? No +1,000 $884 94¢ $935 +$51 06-25 20:54
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No +1,000 $776 82¢ $825 +$49 06-29 19:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +600 $564 99¢ $592 +$28 07-10 21:40
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -400 $-364 94¢ $-374 $-10 06-14 21:29
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No -400 $-364 92¢ $-366 $-2 07-01 21:27
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No -350 $-300 92¢ $-320 $-20 06-06 22:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +200 $132 83¢ $166 +$34 06-17 20:26
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No -144 $-133 95¢ $-137 $-4 05-30 20:55
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No -200 $-136 68¢ $-135 +$1 06-14 18:28
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No -100 $-87 95¢ $-95 $-8 05-28 19:26
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes -400 $-116 24¢ $-94 +$22 06-10 21:21
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No -100 $-80 90¢ $-90 $-10 06-01 13:03
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No -100 $-85 89¢ $-89 $-4 06-08 21:24
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +100 $72 88¢ $88 +$16 06-16 12:41
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +100 $79 76¢ $76 $-2 06-13 09:49
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $80 36¢ $71 $-9 06-26 06:06
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No -73 $-68 96¢ $-71 $-2 05-29 09:03
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +100 $41 70¢ $69 +$28 06-18 17:24
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +100 $47 66¢ $66 +$20 06-17 20:32
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes -200 $-134 22¢ $-43 +$91 06-17 09:36
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes -500 $-70 $-32 +$38 06-07 09:07
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Yes +283 $20 11¢ $31 +$12 06-21 07:33
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes +100 $24 22¢ $22 $-2 06-30 16:18
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $22 10¢ $19 $-3 06-01 04:50
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes -100 $-16 12¢ $-12 +$4 07-06 19:37
Conservatives flip Liberals for Canada Seats Polls in 2026? No -5 $-5 97¢ $-5 $-0 07-05 15:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes -332 $335 $-4 $-339 07-19 19:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $102 14¢ $0 $-102 07-20 08:47