Dishonest-Softening — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$338

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

83.9%

Resolved

Trades

2,455

lifetime

Volume

$82.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-08 22:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

45% 100% +$633

Other

45% 0% $-45

Sports

6% 25% $-250

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	14	$4.3K	2,276	2,276	+0	open	—	02-12 09:35
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	21	$3.2K	4,539	1,409	+3,130	open	—	03-02 09:13
will ole miss win the 2026 college football national championship	11	$2.9K	1,659	1,659	+0	open	—	01-08 16:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	10	$2.0K	1,500	1,620	-120	Yes	+$628	05-09 16:55
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	14	$1.8K	3,048	0	+3,048	open	—	02-28 17:39
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	17	$1.5K	1,652	1,422	+230	open	—	04-28 10:33
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	13	$1.3K	874	1,034	-160	open	—	02-27 13:41
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	5	$1.2K	644	644	+0	open	—	03-01 23:55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	7	$1.2K	740	740	+0	Yes	+$5	03-10 07:22
netanyahu out by march 31 854	3	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	03-15 15:50
lol ig1 lng 2026 01 02	8	$1.0K	547	547	+0	open	—	01-01 11:43
epl che wes 2026 01 31 che	9	$915	480	480	+0	open	—	01-31 19:40
will edouard philippe be the next mayor of le havre	14	$890	660	660	+0	open	—	03-13 13:56
nba dal ind 2026 02 22	13	$829	435	435	+0	open	—	02-23 00:25
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	19	$826	526	526	+0	open	—	03-19 09:09
rusixnat sco fra 2026 03 07 fra	24	$801	1,097	0	+1,097	open	—	03-07 15:10
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	5	$792	540	540	+0	open	—	01-31 11:45
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	9	$743	455	635	-180	open	—	02-28 09:55
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	9	$728	1,030	0	+1,030	open	—	02-28 09:12
will france win the 2026 six nations championship	17	$691	391	400	-9	open	—	03-12 18:21
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28	23	$685	704	709	-5	open	—	02-26 09:44
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	9	$678	640	540	+100	open	—	01-31 17:05
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	8	$662	600	600	+0	open	—	03-10 12:13
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	14	$643	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-05 06:46
rusixnat fra eng 2026 03 14 fra	21	$636	796	0	+796	open	—	03-14 14:05
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	9	$636	340	340	+0	open	—	02-27 00:09
will france strike iran by march 31	5	$632	350	350	+0	open	—	03-17 09:56
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	5	$627	320	320	+0	open	—	02-06 13:51
iran strike on israel by february 28	9	$596	530	330	+200	open	—	02-28 09:17
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	2	$582	300	300	+0	open	—	02-10 13:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 22:49:49	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	6¢	$28	0x573d15…
06-05 20:16:13	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	364	48¢	$175	0xad4c9c…
06-05 20:15:51	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,140	6¢	$133	0x100e35…
06-05 15:28:21	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	Yes	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0x234758…
06-05 15:28:01	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0x1d5f95…
06-05 15:26:54	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	SELL	450	84¢	$378	0x13b536…
05-28 13:05:47	Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Jannik Sinner	BUY	112	44¢	$49	0xde2429…
05-28 13:03:57	Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Jannik Sinner	BUY	226	44¢	$100	0x8cbeef…
05-28 03:51:25	Ethereum flipped in 2026?	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x520078…
05-27 21:32:16	Ethereum flipped in 2026?	No	BUY	45	57¢	$25	0xb69a86…
05-24 00:56:50	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	Yes	BUY	117	1¢	$2	0xf1e666…
05-23 20:01:48	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	Yes	BUY	37	1¢	$0	0x9c4500…
05-23 04:27:55	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	Yes	BUY	44	1¢	$1	0x969848…
05-23 03:55:40	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x56da8c…
05-23 03:15:49	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4016f7…
05-22 20:31:13	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	53¢	$13	0x1420ac…
05-22 20:24:31	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	53¢	$13	0x11c8c2…
05-22 12:07:45	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	Yes	BUY	70	1¢	$1	0x81a07c…
05-22 12:00:55	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x2de9e9…
05-22 10:59:45	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x4e8e74…
05-20 06:26:01	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x82e7e7…
05-19 08:29:56	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x39a911…
05-19 08:27:27	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	33	72¢	$24	0xb51fef…
05-19 08:24:48	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	22	72¢	$16	0x6988d6…
05-19 07:54:56	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0xe5d179…
05-19 07:49:39	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x959500…
05-19 07:47:23	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	No	BUY	17	72¢	$12	0xc0a976…
05-19 00:57:25	Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xaab493…
05-19 00:56:13	Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?	Yes	SELL	43	94¢	$40	0x548faa…
05-18 18:02:08	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0xf54d19…
05-18 16:44:07	Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x43045e…
05-18 15:48:02	Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?	Yes	SELL	28	94¢	$26	0xbcfff8…
05-18 15:45:51	Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?	Yes	SELL	28	94¢	$26	0xfc7ae0…
05-13 10:14:03	NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Golden Knights	Knights	SELL	78	79¢	$62	0x399b04…
05-11 20:41:46	Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?	Yes	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0x1ad2fb…
05-11 09:42:27	NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Golden Knights	Knights	BUY	78	61¢	$48	0x51e370…
05-11 08:30:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	8¢	$8	0x375264…
05-10 13:37:30	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	SELL	200	19¢	$38	0x0e7ae0…
05-10 09:50:35	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	129	35¢	$45	0xc5e49c…
05-10 07:37:36	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0x4324bc…
05-09 23:38:59	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	BUY	22	29¢	$6	0x77ccdf…
05-09 19:56:05	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	0	68¢	$0	0x74ee60…
05-09 19:27:58	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	19	68¢	$13	0x490381…
05-09 19:19:26	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	62	68¢	$42	0x719228…
05-09 19:17:55	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0xef3727…
05-09 19:13:32	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x273f23…
05-09 18:54:40	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	BUY	28	29¢	$8	0x8a6d97…
05-09 18:26:57	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	17	68¢	$12	0x1e3854…
05-09 18:05:07	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	31	68¢	$21	0x1b7c25…
05-09 18:00:13	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	46	68¢	$32	0x7ee02e…
05-09 17:26:30	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xbef0a4…
05-09 17:24:22	Fight to Go the Distance?	No	BUY	110	69¢	$76	0x09e887…
05-09 16:55:01	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	900	99¢	$891	0x78b5d6…
05-03 12:40:20	Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	18¢	$36	0xcea6cf…
04-28 10:33:18	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	127	51¢	$65	0x94c521…
04-27 09:51:46	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	169	50¢	$84	0xb4d302…
04-26 16:14:10	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	225	50¢	$113	0xe16c88…
04-25 12:25:14	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Yes	BUY	90	51¢	$46	0x722d7a…
04-25 10:12:26	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Yes	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x1d4f9b…
04-25 07:23:52	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?	Yes	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x7ea5fa…
04-25 07:06:10	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xe3a0c8…
04-23 20:15:48	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	901	43¢	$388	0x83db78…
04-19 19:06:36	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	300	43¢	$129	0x5082af…
04-19 17:19:46	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	430	42¢	$181	0x0297f9…
04-19 16:56:06	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	138	50¢	$69	0xb9df9a…
04-19 16:55:20	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	62	50¢	$31	0x98c425…
04-17 12:43:56	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	11	36¢	$4	0x25d78a…
04-17 11:51:18	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x789c70…
04-17 11:12:10	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0x25fbd7…
04-17 11:11:08	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	110	36¢	$40	0x00f053…
04-17 11:10:58	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	17	36¢	$6	0xabfa05…
04-17 11:10:52	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	37	36¢	$13	0x09d981…
04-17 10:49:16	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	12	36¢	$4	0xfc62b9…
04-17 10:34:48	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1	36¢	$1	0x9e0c9c…
04-17 10:18:24	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x508ca3…
04-17 10:06:12	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xd8dace…
04-17 10:00:22	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	33	36¢	$12	0xeb222c…
04-17 00:26:22	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	127	45¢	$57	0x096f82…
04-17 00:26:06	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0xaedb7b…
04-17 00:23:44	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xfb1622…
04-17 00:21:46	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	2	45¢	$1	0x7e53c0…
04-17 00:21:36	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	4	45¢	$2	0x7307fc…
04-17 00:21:34	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	299	45¢	$135	0xc78cd9…
04-15 07:53:06	will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	Yes	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0xd6311e…
04-14 08:36:41	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	150	26¢	$39	0x520513…
04-12 22:56:03	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	BUY	200	59¢	$118	0x5bf761…
04-12 22:55:39	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0x663a98…
04-11 08:28:05	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x82bb86…
04-10 08:37:55	will the virginia redistricting referendum pass	Yes	BUY	300	93¢	$279	0x8f6e72…
04-09 10:24:23	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	118	38¢	$45	0x063ace…
04-09 08:17:01	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0x2c6c0a…
04-08 09:01:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	29¢	$58	0x2ae8fe…
04-05 19:46:31	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	Yes	SELL	196	13¢	$25	0x578258…
04-05 06:46:23	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x958d3d…
04-04 12:23:23	US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0x25bdf9…
03-31 22:56:21	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	Yes	SELL	337	13¢	$44	0x74ac6a…
03-31 13:50:57	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	150	93¢	$140	0x481462…
03-31 12:31:11	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xfb6f83…
03-31 08:50:21	will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	Yes	SELL	14	13¢	$2	0xcb143a…
03-30 22:57:47	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	150	93¢	$140	0xb93906…