Unsteady-Blade — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.8%

Resolved

Trades

2,622

lifetime

Volume

$12.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-14

last 07-04 21:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Politics

56% 67% +$16

Other

28% 59% +$6

Crypto

6% — —

Tech

5% — —

Sports

5% 17% $-9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	76	$508	312	302	+10	open	—	03-13 05:45
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	54	$441	245	235	+10	open	—	03-17 14:48
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	45	$398	216	216	+0	open	—	03-29 12:08
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	47	$362	214	214	+0	open	—	03-10 12:47
will the us invade iran by march 31	36	$279	160	160	+0	open	—	03-28 10:39
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	28	$249	135	135	+0	open	—	04-16 06:28
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	38	$244	302	279	+22	open	—	02-23 18:55
will there be between 14 and 17 us strikes on somalia in february 2026	41	$238	180	140	+40	open	—	03-04 21:29
will iran strike israel on march 10	24	$235	120	120	+0	open	—	03-14 00:43
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?	31	$224	120	120	+0	open	—	04-11 19:45
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	37	$207	118	110	+8	open	—	03-23 10:39
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	24	$198	113	126	-13	open	—	02-28 19:02
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	26	$195	128	118	+10	open	—	02-28 06:17
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	24	$192	138	128	+10	open	—	02-28 07:32
iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	36	$190	128	128	+0	open	—	03-19 15:00
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	36	$184	168	153	+15	open	—	04-21 09:17
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	21	$182	96	96	+0	open	—	03-09 11:49
us announces military coordination with kurds in iran by march 31	24	$169	120	120	+0	open	—	03-08 23:07
will claude 5 be released by february 28 2026 352 784	12	$151	180	120	+60	open	—	02-15 11:50
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	20	$151	97	97	+0	open	—	04-08 16:03
netanyahu out by march 31 854	14	$132	70	70	+0	open	—	03-15 14:34
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	30	$130	112	112	+0	open	—	02-28 20:01
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	18	$128	86	76	+10	open	—	02-28 05:08
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	14	$127	70	70	+0	open	—	04-16 15:46
will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	11	$125	100	100	+0	open	—	03-02 22:42
US strikes Iran by March 5, 2026?	20	$123	91	71	+20	open	—	02-27 09:55
will there be between 10 and 13 us strikes on somalia in february 2026	17	$121	120	80	+40	open	—	03-02 19:24
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	18	$119	77	77	+0	open	—	04-15 18:20
will france strike iran by march 31	14	$117	70	70	+0	open	—	03-04 06:51
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	14	$114	70	70	+0	open	—	03-23 17:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 21:30:20	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x744f39…
07-04 21:30:19	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	4	32¢	$1	0x8f1773…
07-04 20:58:47	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 btts	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x6d0cd4…
07-04 16:09:25	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	No	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x053a7d…
07-04 16:08:07	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	No	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x58c5df…
07-04 16:01:32	over 25m committed to the laso finance public sale 663 611 164	No	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x8638f7…
07-03 18:29:07	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x755519…
07-03 14:57:26	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	BUY	2	26¢	$1	0x094cf5…
07-03 14:54:14	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xf77452…
07-03 12:24:46	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x84e9c5…
07-03 12:21:11	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x14e236…
07-03 11:39:52	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x6f7859…
07-03 11:24:37	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x158838…
07-02 22:03:13	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260629202434612	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0x950ee7…
07-02 21:50:47	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260629202434612	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x395aca…
07-02 21:47:41	iran successfully targets shipping by july 15 20260629202434612	Yes	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0x5a3201…
07-02 12:51:44	spy closes above 740 on july 2 2026	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x86e35c…
07-02 12:50:22	spy closes above 740 on july 2 2026	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x13a042…
07-02 11:17:31	spy closes above 740 on july 2 2026	No	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x91507c…
07-01 18:46:46	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x54da44…
07-01 18:08:04	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x16d1c5…
07-01 13:57:14	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x223300…
07-01 13:28:23	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 team to advance	Austria	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xbe3f0d…
07-01 13:01:29	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x7fe9d8…
07-01 11:15:49	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x0b4c7d…
07-01 10:54:11	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	3	78¢	$3	0xe0907f…
07-01 10:38:37	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x7e88fd…
07-01 10:22:46	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xf7313c…
07-01 09:44:20	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x15ee66…
07-01 04:58:01	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	4	64¢	$2	0x633bb2…
07-01 04:56:47	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xd6806f…
06-30 03:40:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x37d710…
06-30 03:40:04	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x31841e…
06-30 03:40:04	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x22ecb8…
06-30 02:25:38	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	15	12¢	$2	0x974288…
06-30 02:10:07	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0x7feeda…
06-29 22:56:14	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x6e37b2…
06-29 22:26:10	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xf71ab1…
06-29 18:00:29	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	4	37¢	$1	0xb38549…
06-29 17:45:01	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x96e255…
06-29 15:21:59	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x2c8c73…
06-29 07:27:40	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x943c4f…
06-29 07:25:46	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xaa7ea4…
06-29 04:07:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	31	19¢	$6	0x9f8044…
06-28 21:57:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x454354…
06-28 21:31:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x1e668a…
06-28 21:28:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x4f99de…
06-28 21:19:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0xc11b28…
06-28 19:43:31	will franois ruffin advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x49ffa3…
06-28 19:41:49	will franois ruffin advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x834ce1…
06-28 19:41:49	will franois ruffin advance to the second round of the next french presidential election	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x7ea41e…
06-28 13:29:01	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x043c72…
06-28 12:50:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	10	28¢	$3	0x8b7a0a…
06-23 22:46:44	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xdeece7…
06-23 18:29:32	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	3	31¢	$1	0x1181a4…
06-23 18:28:20	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	15	32¢	$5	0xdaeb48…
06-23 16:34:08	Will Donald Trump visit North Dakota in 2026?	No	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x7b0d9c…
06-23 16:27:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x0d5e78…
06-23 03:17:59	Will Donald Trump visit North Dakota in 2026?	No	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0xea8eef…
06-22 16:23:50	Will Donald Trump visit North Dakota in 2026?	No	BUY	0	41¢	$0	0x4b88ba…
06-22 15:48:25	Will Donald Trump visit North Dakota in 2026?	No	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x3710a9…
06-22 12:00:04	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xcea047…
06-22 11:58:37	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x3fe5ad…
06-21 11:48:04	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x3ffdd3…
06-19 14:07:07	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0x6afc0b…
06-18 10:17:08	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x872ed7…
06-18 09:15:40	Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xa9ec04…
06-18 00:26:47	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x63efca…
06-17 19:05:19	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x7acf98…
06-17 16:02:53	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	2	64¢	$2	0x821222…
06-17 15:36:17	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xeaef6c…
06-17 15:20:46	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xb01a0a…
06-17 01:42:34	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	SELL	4	68¢	$3	0x12c4f0…
06-17 01:41:05	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x728b0a…
06-17 01:28:32	will jared kushner attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204741	Yes	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x73968c…
06-16 15:07:43	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xfdc627…
06-16 14:52:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x42ab09…
06-16 13:32:41	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x6db67c…
06-15 23:50:36	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x0c6f04…
06-15 22:51:52	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x8db119…
06-15 14:53:27	flavio bolsonaro charged or arrested by september 30 20260609144215531	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x8adf74…
06-15 14:48:09	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0xe3a124…
06-15 14:43:09	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026	No	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x0423f3…
06-13 18:45:27	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026	No	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xb16c64…
06-13 18:12:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	2	42¢	$1	0x6dc7d2…
06-13 18:11:57	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x6c1896…
06-13 09:49:00	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	15	39¢	$6	0x7b56b4…
06-13 09:38:13	Will SpaceX acquire Cursor?	Yes	BUY	4	92¢	$3	0xefff68…
06-13 05:38:31	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0x93348c…
06-13 05:23:13	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	5	67¢	$3	0x056c6a…
06-12 19:58:24	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xdb369d…
06-12 18:20:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x4cd575…
06-12 16:11:16	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x451b76…
06-12 16:07:36	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xae9684…
06-12 16:06:46	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	BUY	35	14¢	$5	0x9b2961…
06-12 13:30:45	Will SpaceX acquire Cursor?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x6777b1…
06-12 13:19:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xee4cd7…
06-12 12:21:19	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	31¢	$5	0x5365af…
06-12 12:21:04	congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	No	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0x633f1e…
06-09 16:50:28	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0xf4c6cb…