Realized P&L
-$188
Unrealized P&L
+$18
Hit rate
31.6%
Resolved
39
Trades
113
lifetime
Volume
$801
lifetime
Avg / trade
$7
Open exposure
$232
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-27
last 10-27 19:40
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 25 days
Categories
Politics
47% 38% -$48
Other
41% 14% -$51
Sports
11% 20% -$89
Pop-Culture
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
14 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? Yes -733 -$64 7¢ $-52 +$12 09-08 17:44
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Yes -625 -$38 6¢ $-38 +$0 10-27 15:55
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes +16 $10 78¢ $13 +$3 09-28 22:30
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? Yes +25 $5 50¢ $12 +$7 06-12 13:59
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes -308 -$12 4¢ $-12 $0 09-08 17:44
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No -57 -$9 18¢ $-11 -$1 09-08 17:45
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes +11 $5 88¢ $10 +$5 07-29 19:22
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes +13 $8 70¢ $9 +$1 10-27 16:03
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? Yes -85 -$9 9¢ $-8 +$1 09-15 21:31
Blue tsunami in 2026? Yes +11 $5 60¢ $7 +$2 06-12 13:52
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes -44 -$7 14¢ $-6 +$1 08-31 20:51
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes +28 $5 20¢ $6 +$1 10-20 02:11
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes -138 -$7 4¢ $-5 +$2 07-03 15:06
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +26 $5 18¢ $5 -$1 08-17 20:27
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +12 $5 38¢ $4 -$1 10-05 22:53
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes +17 $5 22¢ $4 -$1 09-28 22:33
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? Yes +14 $3 23¢ $3 +$0 10-27 15:45
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +20 $10 16¢ $3 -$7 06-01 14:14
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +5 $3 68¢ $3 +$0 10-19 16:20
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026? Yes +5 $3 62¢ $3 $0 10-27 15:45
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +7 $3 36¢ $3 $0 05-05 20:11
US military draft authorized in 2026? Yes -85 -$7 3¢ $-3 +$5 06-08 18:27
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes +15 $3 15¢ $2 -$1 08-17 20:26
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes +30 $10 8¢ $2 -$8 08-13 21:26
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -11 -$4 20¢ $-2 +$2 07-20 17:57
kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418 Yes +23 $3 9¢ $2 -$1 07-31 17:54
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +12 $5 16¢ $2 -$3 08-20 18:06
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes +31 $2 5¢ $1 -$1 10-27 19:40
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes +7 $2 16¢ $1 -$1 05-05 20:11
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes +3 -$1 36¢ $1 +$2 10-27 15:46