Realized P&L
+$7
Unrealized P&L
+$14
Hit rate
100.0%
Resolved
1
Trades
43
lifetime
Volume
$396
lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$89
16 positions
First seen
2026-02-27
last 07-21 13:41
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 1 day
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Politics
61% 100% +$7
Other
37%
Pop-Culture
1%
Sports
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
13 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? Yes -499 $-51 $-27 +$24 06-01 13:56
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes -138 $-7 $-10 $-3 07-03 15:06
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +10 $5 64¢ $6 +$1 07-15 12:59
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +20 $10 26¢ $5 $-5 06-01 14:14
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027? Yes +31 $3 15¢ $5 +$2 06-12 14:00
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +18 $3 26¢ $5 +$2 07-09 17:26
Blue tsunami in 2026? Yes +11 $5 40¢ $5 $-0 06-12 13:52
Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027? Yes +46 $5 10¢ $5 $-0 07-21 13:41
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes -11 $-4 40¢ $-4 $-0 07-20 17:57
US military draft authorized in 2026? Yes -85 $-7 $-4 +$3 06-08 18:27
Fed rate hike in 2026? No +10 $5 36¢ $3 $-2 06-17 19:20
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes +9 $5 34¢ $3 $-2 07-02 20:38
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027? Yes +48 $5 $2 $-3 06-15 21:57
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes +18 $2 11¢ $2 $-0 07-20 18:10
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes +20 $2 $2 $-1 06-18 19:55
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? Yes +28 $3 $1 $-2 06-28 17:32