Realized P&L (30d)
+$237
Unrealized P&L
-$273
Hit rate
80.4%
Resolved (30d)
10
Trades (30d)
149
3,692 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$17.4K
$648.2K lifetime
Avg / trade
$176
Open exposure
$11.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-31 21:31
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 144 days
Categories
Politics
70% 70% +$57
Other
29% 72% +$2,983
Crypto
1% 17% -$342
Sports
0% 75% +$8
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$37
Tech
0% 67% +$224
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
45 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +2,000 $1,280 74¢ $1.5K +$190 10-25 09:32
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No -1,369 -$1,130 98¢ $-1340 -$210 08-02 11:15
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +1,300 $1,209 94¢ $1.2K +$20 10-25 09:48
Kash Patel out by December 31? No -1,376 -$275 82¢ $-1135 -$860 04-28 13:29
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,150 $901 82¢ $949 +$48 10-25 11:38
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No +963 $720 94¢ $905 +$184 10-24 21:16
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? No +775 $367 88¢ $685 +$318 10-26 17:44
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? No +453 $415 92¢ $417 +$2 10-30 13:00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? No +300 $276 98¢ $292 +$16 10-30 19:49
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? Yes +300 $258 94¢ $280 +$22 10-25 19:27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +1,000 $300 28¢ $275 -$25 10-30 18:45
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? No +537 $533 51¢ $271 -$261 09-30 18:01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? Yes +1,000 $279 26¢ $265 -$14 10-30 13:10
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +300 $261 69¢ $207 -$54 09-26 17:20
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +500 $230 40¢ $201 -$29 10-22 17:10
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +200 $150 99¢ $198 +$48 10-22 17:14
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No -231 -$308 86¢ $-198 +$110 08-07 16:57
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -200 -$190 96¢ $-193 -$3 10-01 20:44
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -222 -$209 85¢ $-189 +$20 10-30 20:26
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +200 $156 86¢ $173 +$17 07-12 09:47
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? No -158 -$335 95¢ $-150 +$185 07-04 17:05
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? No +135 $110 92¢ $124 +$14 04-28 15:36
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? No -118 -$114 97¢ $-114 +$0 08-20 13:36
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No -100 -$91 97¢ $-97 -$6 05-15 17:45
US recession by end of 2026? No -100 -$88 94¢ $-94 -$6 06-22 18:29
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No +100 $92 94¢ $94 +$2 08-25 21:59
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes +93 $86 94¢ $87 +$1 10-27 16:26
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +100 $72 66¢ $66 -$6 10-26 17:35
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +50 $46 94¢ $47 +$2 07-05 12:23
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Yes +125 $37 32¢ $40 +$2 10-26 18:16