Realized P&L (90d)
+$629
Unrealized P&L
-$422
Hit rate
68.7%
Resolved (90d)
43
Trades (90d)
326
3,688 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$52.9K
$650.0K lifetime
Avg / trade
$176
Open exposure
$9.93K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-04 07:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 146 days
Categories
Politics
70% 70% +$1,539
Other
29% 73% +$3,007
Crypto
1% 17% -$342
Sports
0% 75% +$8
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$37
Tech
0% 67% +$224
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
46 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? No -1,369 -$1,130 96¢ $-1318 -$187 08-02 11:15
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +1,300 $1,209 100¢ $1.3K +$91 10-25 09:48
Kash Patel out by December 31? No -1,376 -$275 82¢ $-1122 -$846 04-28 13:29
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,150 $901 88¢ $1.0K +$117 10-25 11:38
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No +963 $720 96¢ $925 +$204 10-24 21:16
Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? No +775 $367 87¢ $678 +$311 10-26 17:44
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? No +453 $415 98¢ $444 +$29 10-30 13:00
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? No +537 $533 50¢ $269 -$264 09-30 18:01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? Yes +1,000 $279 24¢ $245 -$34 10-30 13:10
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No -231 -$308 92¢ $-214 +$94 08-07 16:57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +1,000 $300 20¢ $205 -$95 10-30 18:45
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +500 $230 40¢ $201 -$29 10-22 17:10
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -222 -$209 90¢ $-201 +$8 10-30 20:26
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +200 $150 100¢ $200 +$50 10-22 17:14
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +300 $261 66¢ $200 -$62 09-26 17:20
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -200 -$190 97¢ $-194 -$4 10-01 20:44
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +200 $156 92¢ $183 +$27 07-12 09:47
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? No -158 -$335 96¢ $-151 +$184 07-04 17:05
Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? No +135 $110 92¢ $124 +$13 04-28 15:36
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? No -118 -$114 96¢ $-113 +$1 08-20 13:36
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No -100 -$91 97¢ $-97 -$6 05-15 17:45
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No +100 $92 95¢ $95 +$3 08-25 21:59
US recession by end of 2026? No -100 -$88 94¢ $-94 -$6 06-22 18:29
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes +93 $86 95¢ $88 +$2 10-27 16:26
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026? No +62 $58 96¢ $59 +$2 10-27 16:25
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +50 $46 96¢ $48 +$2 07-05 12:23
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Yes +125 $37 38¢ $47 +$9 10-26 18:16
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? Yes +59 $36 70¢ $41 +$5 10-26 18:18
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +100 $72 36¢ $36 -$36 10-26 17:35
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? No -29 -$23 94¢ $-27 -$3 06-11 17:43