Dim-Pillbox-Tolerance — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$19

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

33.1%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

537

3,751 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$1.00K

$14.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$321

30 positions

First seen

2026-05-24

last 11-14 13:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 81 days

Categories

Other

68% 64% +$79

Politics

23% 70% -$38

Tech

9% 50% -$36

Pop-Culture

0% 60% -$7

Crypto

0% 0% $0

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 139 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+35	$33	91¢	$32	-$1	11-10 13:52
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	+22	$21	97¢	$21	+$0	11-13 07:10
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	+20	$19	97¢	$20	+$0	11-08 02:40
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+19	$19	97¢	$18	$0	11-13 21:11
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	+17	$15	98¢	$16	+$1	10-16 12:37
US recession by end of 2026?	No	+16	$15	98¢	$16	+$1	11-12 04:31
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	+15	$15	98¢	$15	+$0	11-14 13:35
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	+15	$12	97¢	$14	+$2	11-14 04:37
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	+13	$13	100¢	$13	+$0	11-12 16:36
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	+11	$11	99¢	$11	+$0	10-31 16:24
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	No	+11	$11	98¢	$11	$0	11-12 07:25
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+11	$11	97¢	$11	+$0	11-04 06:35
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	No	+10	$10	98¢	$10	$0	11-09 20:23
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	+10	$10	98¢	$10	+$0	11-05 17:21
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+9	$8	98¢	$9	+$1	11-09 17:32
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+8	$7	99¢	$8	+$0	11-13 16:45
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+8	$8	93¢	$8	$0	11-13 21:06
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	+8	$7	98¢	$8	+$0	11-09 18:47
New pandemic in 2026?	No	+7	$8	98¢	$7	-$1	11-12 18:57
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+7	$5	98¢	$7	+$2	11-13 15:38
FAA outage attributed to Iran?	No	+7	$7	99¢	$7	+$0	11-14 12:52
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	+7	$7	100¢	$7	+$0	11-14 18:16
Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026?	No	+7	$6	95¢	$6	$0	11-12 15:54
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?	No	+6	$8	96¢	$6	-$2	11-05 09:28
Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	No	+6	$6	98¢	$6	+$0	11-10 16:56
Israeli Knesset election annulled?	No	+6	$6	99¢	$6	+$0	11-13 08:41
Tusk out by December 31?	No	+6	$5	98¢	$5	+$0	11-06 13:22
Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	11-12 09:44
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	No	+5	$5	97¢	$5	+$0	11-10 22:48
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	No	+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	10-17 22:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	98	$932	473	473	+0	No	+$2	09-15 10:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	50	$445	383	383	+0	open	—	08-18 15:18
New pandemic in 2026?	62	$430	236	228	+7	open	—	11-12 18:57
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	72	$422	249	202	+46	No	+$1	10-04 19:37
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	83	$382	198	198	+0	No	-$1	10-27 06:48
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	66	$348	175	175	+0	No	$0	09-15 10:04
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	52	$335	169	169	+0	No	-$1	10-16 15:33
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	54	$288	358	193	+165	No	-$83	09-15 12:56
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	49	$270	292	286	+6	Yes	+$15	09-04 16:26
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?	32	$264	146	140	+6	open	—	11-05 09:28
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	48	$249	138	127	+11	open	—	11-12 07:25
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	46	$246	160	87	+73	No	$0	09-17 15:47
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	35	$240	131	130	+1	open	—	10-05 19:33
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	44	$238	120	119	+1	No	$0	09-03 16:18
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	37	$237	133	121	+12	No	+$1	09-19 16:22
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	43	$225	319	194	+125	Yes	+$73	09-10 18:35
Trump out as President before 2027?	34	$217	125	106	+19	open	—	11-13 21:11
Fed rate hike in 2026?	39	$214	180	171	+9	Yes	+$5	09-11 13:59
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	30	$210	105	105	+0	No	+$0	07-16 19:16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	65	$207	104	104	+0	No	$0	10-27 06:47
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?	46	$203	104	104	+0	No	+$0	08-21 09:03
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	40	$198	113	106	+7	No	+$1	08-18 10:31
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	8	$190	267	267	+0	No	+$182	07-17 20:17
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?	33	$140	72	71	+0	No	$0	08-28 03:15
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	9	$134	89	49	+40	No	$0	07-22 21:05
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	24	$130	127	45	+82	Yes	+$13	10-26 01:47
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	18	$118	77	68	+9	open	—	11-09 17:32
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	22	$117	90	45	+45	Yes	+$7	07-17 20:05
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	24	$117	65	65	+0	open	—	11-05 14:51
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	16	$112	60	54	+6	No	+$0	08-20 17:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-14 18:16:23	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x3513ed…
11-14 13:35:16	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x1b154e…
11-14 12:52:44	FAA outage attributed to Iran?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x22e829…
11-14 12:21:59	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x2c8ae5…
11-14 12:21:05	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x0c1842…
11-14 11:44:22	FAA outage attributed to Iran?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xed990a…
11-14 11:12:13	Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x58ba4c…
11-14 10:16:34	Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x3bc2e3…
11-14 09:07:32	FAA outage attributed to Iran?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x9aab83…
11-14 09:07:10	FAA outage attributed to Iran?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x308de0…
11-14 08:34:16	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xa9a473…
11-14 08:14:05	FAA outage attributed to Iran?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x6fa7c2…
11-14 07:23:31	GTA VI released by November 30?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9f6a61…
11-14 04:37:07	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xafc9a2…
11-14 00:40:43	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xcb8b86…
11-13 21:11:49	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xde6e96…
11-13 21:06:07	Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	3	93¢	$2	0x29276d…
11-13 19:14:19	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x9f908c…
11-13 18:13:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x24971f…
11-13 16:45:25	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xb2d8d3…
11-13 15:47:07	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x631a7f…
11-13 15:38:31	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xdb13f1…
11-13 13:31:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x1b54d1…
11-13 09:24:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xe039a6…
11-13 08:41:01	Israeli Knesset election annulled?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x4d80fc…
11-13 08:33:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3c093b…
11-13 07:10:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xd7583e…
11-13 06:54:09	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xa0dfe8…
11-13 06:47:37	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd25c92…
11-13 06:43:07	Another Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x3f36b1…
11-13 06:42:24	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xb43fb5…
11-13 06:39:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x375423…
11-13 06:26:36	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5b1788…
11-13 06:19:55	Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xddd8a7…
11-13 05:27:13	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x07960b…
11-13 05:09:04	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x4ccc39…
11-13 04:17:49	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x3b9e80…
11-12 23:13:04	Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x64323c…
11-12 19:02:28	Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xe14e22…
11-12 18:57:00	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x0400a9…
11-12 18:55:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xca2b4a…
11-12 18:14:51	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x0bf94d…
11-12 16:36:33	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xd75c86…
11-12 15:54:48	Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xc2a074…
11-12 13:53:25	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xb40816…
11-12 09:44:34	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb1ef16…
11-12 08:42:13	Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x5d453d…
11-12 08:27:01	Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xa10889…
11-12 07:25:22	Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xdfb841…
11-12 07:13:51	Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x9ca3f9…
11-12 07:11:43	Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x6f4935…
11-12 06:56:52	Will Jensen Huang be arrested by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x9f815c…
11-12 06:55:51	Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x3f8411…
11-12 06:38:54	Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x8f2d14…
11-12 05:51:12	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x39ec7e…
11-12 04:37:25	Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x12648b…
11-12 04:36:37	Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x94190d…
11-12 04:31:57	US recession by end of 2026?	No	SELL	4	98¢	$4	0xc74c3a…
11-11 22:28:22	Will Marco Rubio be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x8cf416…
11-11 20:36:57	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x422489…
11-11 17:39:28	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe33178…
11-11 17:22:04	Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x769b92…
11-11 16:40:10	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x57f5d6…
11-11 16:31:39	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9048e5…
11-11 15:59:37	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x006a94…
11-11 13:24:36	Israeli Knesset election annulled?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe3ffe4…
11-11 12:34:48	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x634591…
11-11 12:31:31	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5cc800…
11-10 23:17:57	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x5e21cf…
11-10 22:48:33	Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xc16b29…
11-10 18:51:01	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x2a18cf…
11-10 17:22:30	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x72b35f…
11-10 17:07:51	Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x538845…
11-10 16:56:18	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x77ceb8…
11-10 16:43:46	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xdead61…
11-10 15:43:37	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x2788b0…
11-10 15:38:57	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x0ef453…
11-10 14:57:00	Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x8b0481…
11-10 14:56:52	Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xba06bb…
11-10 14:06:03	GTA VI released by November 30?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x260e7b…
11-10 13:53:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x78370d…
11-10 13:53:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3ae382…
11-10 13:52:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xac3d6d…
11-10 13:47:10	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x810663…
11-10 13:38:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x767a10…
11-10 13:31:06	Will Steffen Krach be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xbfe8d5…
11-10 13:30:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb3f105…
11-10 13:26:37	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in October?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8b23df…
11-10 13:24:19	Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x0c5916…
11-10 12:59:42	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x3500c2…
11-10 12:53:30	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfb79a0…
11-10 12:40:27	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x536556…
11-10 12:01:24	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf2c411…
11-10 11:26:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5b9a04…
11-10 11:19:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x0613f1…
11-10 11:11:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xf356ba…
11-10 11:10:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xb40264…
11-10 10:27:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x61c6af…
11-10 10:24:22	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x32d7cd…
11-10 09:55:46	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa3eb60…