Dim-Pillbox-Tolerance — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$19

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

33.3%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

537

3,694 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$1.06K

$14.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$321

30 positions

First seen

2026-05-24

last 11-11 22:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 80 days

Categories

Other

68% 65% +$79

Politics

23% 70% -$38

Tech

9% 50% -$36

Pop-Culture

0% 60% -$7

Crypto

0% 0% $0

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 139 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+35	$33	90¢	$32	-$1	11-10 13:52
US recession by end of 2026?	No	+20	$19	98¢	$20	+$1	11-05 03:17
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	+20	$19	97¢	$20	+$0	11-08 02:40
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+20	$20	98¢	$20	$0	11-05 18:38
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	+18	$18	100¢	$18	+$0	11-10 13:47
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	+17	$15	97¢	$16	+$1	10-16 12:37
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	+16	$15	97¢	$15	+$0	11-02 02:50
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	No	+13	$12	98¢	$12	$0	11-09 19:05
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	+11	$11	99¢	$11	+$0	10-31 16:24
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+11	$11	97¢	$11	+$0	11-04 06:35
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	+11	$11	97¢	$11	+$0	11-10 18:51
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+11	$10	95¢	$10	+$0	11-08 07:37
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	No	+10	$10	97¢	$10	$0	11-09 20:23
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	No	+10	$10	98¢	$10	+$0	11-05 17:21
another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	+10	$8	96¢	$10	+$2	10-19 09:26
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+9	$8	98¢	$9	+$1	11-09 17:32
New pandemic in 2026?	No	+8	$9	99¢	$8	-$1	11-10 03:08
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+8	$6	98¢	$8	+$2	11-11 12:34
Israeli Knesset election annulled?	No	+8	$8	99¢	$8	+$0	11-11 13:24
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	+8	$7	99¢	$8	+$0	11-10 12:53
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	+8	$7	98¢	$8	+$0	11-09 18:47
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+8	$7	100¢	$7	+$0	11-06 01:05
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+7	$6	98¢	$7	+$0	11-11 16:40
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?	No	+6	$8	96¢	$6	-$2	11-05 09:28
Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	No	+6	$6	98¢	$6	+$0	11-10 16:56
Tusk out by December 31?	No	+6	$5	97¢	$5	+$0	11-06 13:22
Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	No	+5	$5	97¢	$5	+$0	11-10 22:48
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	No	+5	$5	100¢	$5	+$0	10-17 22:57
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+4	$4	96¢	$4	$0	10-15 01:11
Will Alysa Liu be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	+4	$4	98¢	$4	$0	11-09 10:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	98	$932	473	473	+0	No	+$2	09-15 10:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	50	$445	383	383	+0	open	—	08-18 15:18
New pandemic in 2026?	61	$430	236	228	+8	open	—	11-10 03:08
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	72	$422	249	202	+46	No	+$1	10-04 19:37
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	83	$382	198	198	+0	No	-$1	10-27 06:48
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	66	$348	175	175	+0	No	$0	09-15 10:04
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	52	$335	169	169	+0	No	-$1	10-16 15:33
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	54	$288	358	193	+165	No	-$83	09-15 12:56
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	49	$270	292	286	+6	Yes	+$15	09-04 16:26
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?	32	$264	146	140	+6	open	—	11-05 09:28
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	45	$248	138	126	+13	open	—	11-09 19:05
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	46	$246	160	87	+73	No	$0	09-17 15:47
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	35	$240	131	130	+1	open	—	10-05 19:33
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	44	$238	120	119	+1	No	$0	09-03 16:18
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?	37	$237	133	121	+12	No	+$1	09-19 16:22
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	43	$225	319	194	+125	Yes	+$73	09-10 18:35
Trump out as President before 2027?	33	$216	125	105	+20	open	—	11-05 18:38
Fed rate hike in 2026?	39	$214	180	171	+9	Yes	+$5	09-11 13:59
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	30	$210	105	105	+0	No	+$0	07-16 19:16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	65	$207	104	104	+0	No	$0	10-27 06:47
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?	46	$203	104	104	+0	No	+$0	08-21 09:03
us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	40	$198	113	106	+7	No	+$1	08-18 10:31
will 30 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	8	$190	267	267	+0	No	+$182	07-17 20:17
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?	33	$140	72	71	+0	No	$0	08-28 03:15
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?	9	$134	89	49	+40	No	$0	07-22 21:05
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	24	$130	127	45	+82	Yes	+$13	10-26 01:47
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	18	$118	77	68	+9	open	—	11-09 17:32
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	22	$117	90	45	+45	Yes	+$7	07-17 20:05
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	24	$117	65	65	+0	open	—	11-05 14:51
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	16	$112	60	54	+6	No	+$0	08-20 17:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-11 22:28:22	Will Marco Rubio be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x8cf416…
11-11 20:36:57	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x422489…
11-11 17:39:28	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xe33178…
11-11 17:22:04	Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x769b92…
11-11 16:40:10	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x57f5d6…
11-11 16:31:39	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x9048e5…
11-11 15:59:37	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x006a94…
11-11 13:24:36	Israeli Knesset election annulled?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe3ffe4…
11-11 12:34:48	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x634591…
11-11 12:31:31	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x5cc800…
11-10 23:17:57	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x5e21cf…
11-10 22:48:33	Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xc16b29…
11-10 18:51:01	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x2a18cf…
11-10 17:22:30	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x72b35f…
11-10 17:07:51	Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x538845…
11-10 16:56:18	Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x77ceb8…
11-10 16:43:46	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xdead61…
11-10 15:43:37	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x2788b0…
11-10 15:38:57	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x0ef453…
11-10 14:57:00	Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x8b0481…
11-10 14:56:52	Will Starbucks acquire Chipotle in 2026?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xba06bb…
11-10 14:06:03	GTA VI released by November 30?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x260e7b…
11-10 13:53:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x78370d…
11-10 13:53:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x3ae382…
11-10 13:52:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xac3d6d…
11-10 13:47:10	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x810663…
11-10 13:38:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x767a10…
11-10 13:31:06	Will Steffen Krach be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xbfe8d5…
11-10 13:30:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xb3f105…
11-10 13:26:37	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in October?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8b23df…
11-10 13:24:19	Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x0c5916…
11-10 12:59:42	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x3500c2…
11-10 12:53:30	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfb79a0…
11-10 12:40:27	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x536556…
11-10 12:01:24	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf2c411…
11-10 11:26:37	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x5b9a04…
11-10 11:19:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x0613f1…
11-10 11:11:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xf356ba…
11-10 11:10:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xb40264…
11-10 10:27:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x61c6af…
11-10 10:24:22	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x32d7cd…
11-10 09:55:46	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa3eb60…
11-10 09:04:19	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x93e67f…
11-10 07:14:58	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe18f34…
11-10 07:12:04	Will Anthropic IPO by November 16, 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x45e092…
11-10 06:43:57	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x075280…
11-10 03:08:54	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xc74273…
11-10 01:14:16	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x669bff…
11-09 20:23:15	JD Vance out as VP by December 31?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xe972ab…
11-09 19:05:21	Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xd3e557…
11-09 18:47:12	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xa9b773…
11-09 18:32:43	Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x8a8271…
11-09 18:32:10	Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0x7d3658…
11-09 17:32:21	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xfe945f…
11-09 16:17:48	Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x41c695…
11-09 15:26:07	Will Marco Rubio be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$1	0x3aaa6c…
11-09 15:13:52	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0xa073bf…
11-09 15:07:58	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x7e76e6…
11-09 15:04:09	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x599584…
11-09 12:39:37	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x797524…
11-09 10:40:21	Will Alysa Liu be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xccacbb…
11-09 10:40:13	Will Alysa Liu be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe3fe9a…
11-09 10:35:12	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x9d88e6…
11-09 10:20:10	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31?	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x69a7ac…
11-09 10:09:49	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0x330ed0…
11-09 08:26:01	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31?	No	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0xe92e09…
11-09 04:43:21	GTA VI released by November 30?	Yes	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xdb1a8b…
11-09 02:09:49	Will Marco Rubio be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x06da6f…
11-08 22:05:24	Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x6cc6da…
11-08 19:25:06	Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x38a58c…
11-08 19:12:09	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x52c066…
11-08 18:08:13	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0x113c80…
11-08 17:36:00	Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0xfbb147…
11-08 16:52:46	Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xfcce86…
11-08 12:22:07	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x67d44f…
11-08 10:33:33	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	98¢	$1	0x1b5004…
11-08 07:39:25	Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xd8086d…
11-08 07:37:27	Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0xabdfb0…
11-08 06:59:09	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?	No	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xa924fb…
11-08 06:44:45	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xdcfa5e…
11-08 06:36:30	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xdeaef6…
11-08 02:40:43	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x6f2d35…
11-08 01:27:06	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xe9822d…
11-08 00:18:42	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x9418fa…
11-07 22:27:00	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xc2fd48…
11-07 22:18:13	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x3b3f7f…
11-07 20:40:21	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xcf36b5…
11-07 18:19:15	Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xdd119c…
11-07 10:06:27	Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x12496c…
11-07 07:31:49	Will Marco Rubio be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0xc766e1…
11-07 07:31:18	Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x9e02d1…
11-07 07:30:24	Israeli Knesset election annulled?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x200827…
11-07 03:03:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x7e8e96…
11-06 22:06:12	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xf0b5c0…
11-06 20:45:52	Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x513360…
11-06 19:30:03	Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x7992db…
11-06 18:45:18	Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x669c94…
11-06 16:54:03	Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x9f09a2…
11-06 16:22:43	Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0x076315…
11-06 16:18:43	Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xcc7265…