Frigid-Bonus — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.1%

Resolved

Trades

1,253

lifetime

Volume

$7.11K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 06-03 20:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

46% — —

Other

40% — —

Politics

11% 33% $-5

Sports

3% 67% +$0

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	8	$1.5K	493,803	0	+493,803	open	—	06-03 20:58
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	2	$237	169	169	+0	open	—	02-06 23:23
bitcoin above 66k on april 8	2	$205	106	106	+1	open	—	04-08 10:29
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$202	102	102	+0	open	—	03-01 11:13
will the bank of brazil decrease the selic rate after march 2026 meeting	1	$200	247	0	+247	open	—	03-18 17:37
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	19	$142	7,741	0	+7,741	open	—	01-07 17:28
bun bay moe 2026 03 06 moe	4	$103	55	55	+0	open	—	03-06 22:57
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$98	59	59	+0	open	—	04-13 09:17
eth updown 15m 1772803800	5	$77	94	20	+74	open	—	03-06 13:44
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	2	$60	1,530	0	+1,530	open	—	01-07 17:30
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	2	$50	31	31	+0	open	—	03-29 23:15
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	1	$50	54	0	+54	open	—	01-20 17:53
will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	1	$50	57	0	+57	open	—	01-20 17:54
cbb stetsn ausp 2026 03 06	4	$47	26	26	+0	open	—	03-07 00:10
cs2 g2 nip 2026 03 05 game2	3	$44	24	24	+0	open	—	03-05 17:59
tsla above 395 on march 6 2026	2	$42	22	22	+0	open	—	03-06 21:00
will smash into pieces win melodifestivalen 2026	4	$39	20	20	+0	open	—	03-06 22:05
cwbb lasal rich 2026 03 06	4	$38	20	20	+0	open	—	03-07 03:20
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$38	23	23	+0	open	—	04-25 14:50
bl2 s04 bie 2026 03 06 bie	2	$34	19	19	+0	open	—	03-06 22:05
lol hmble cg 2026 02 28	2	$31	17	17	+0	open	—	03-06 22:16
xrp updown 5m 1772804400	3	$31	48	0	+48	open	—	03-06 13:43
val ns1 gm 2026 03 06 game1	3	$30	26	11	+15	open	—	03-06 23:31
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$30	27	13	+14	open	—	04-15 22:06
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	4	$29	22	22	+0	open	—	04-16 19:00
bun bay moe 2026 03 06 draw	2	$29	16	16	+0	open	—	03-06 16:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$25	33	33	+0	open	—	05-06 10:35
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final?	2	$25	15	15	+0	No	+$3	05-05 20:45
cs2 furia b8 2026 03 06	2	$24	30	0	+30	open	—	03-06 19:35
tsla up or down on march 6 2026	2	$24	12	12	+0	open	—	03-06 23:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 20:58:04	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60,743	0¢	$182	0xede300…
06-03 20:50:16	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53,790	0¢	$161	0x28d93d…
06-03 20:49:15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	49¢	$3	0x1b5556…
06-03 20:48:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	75¢	$7	0xf04cd6…
06-03 20:48:15	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x987f47…
06-03 20:39:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,270	0¢	$13	0xcfad56…
06-03 20:23:55	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33,333	0¢	$100	0x6ac7a6…
06-03 20:23:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	91,667	0¢	$275	0xdde24d…
06-03 20:10:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83,333	0¢	$250	0x0ce67e…
06-03 20:02:34	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33,333	0¢	$100	0xf0d962…
06-03 20:01:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	133,333	0¢	$400	0xea881b…
05-10 10:20:56	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	20¢	$3	0xdc7f46…
05-10 10:19:03	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xf05677…
05-10 10:18:57	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	20¢	$0	0xb602e3…
05-10 10:07:09	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x59c37e…
05-10 10:06:30	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0xa6cef1…
05-09 22:37:32	Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	Yes	BUY	0	83¢	$0	0xac3077…
05-09 22:26:27	Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x8455f7…
05-09 13:40:13	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	9	49¢	$4	0x278d7d…
05-08 22:07:32	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	9	62¢	$6	0xc182c7…
05-07 10:37:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	1	63¢	$1	0x939688…
05-07 10:32:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xf02f4d…
05-07 10:31:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x1ec7bb…
05-07 10:09:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x99b6ee…
05-07 10:07:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x5f1498…
05-07 10:07:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0xbd7773…
05-06 10:35:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0xa2c698…
05-06 06:30:14	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	20¢	$4	0x4f4ff9…
05-06 01:00:16	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	SELL	32	6¢	$2	0x843203…
05-05 20:45:20	Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final?	No	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0xe5529e…
05-05 10:10:42	Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final?	No	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0xf223e8…
05-05 10:07:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	32	17¢	$6	0x4e7af2…
05-04 22:06:58	Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	29¢	$6	0x9e4b85…
05-04 12:18:22	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x45c609…
05-04 12:18:20	Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x365ef3…
04-28 10:09:30	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xd0c1d1…
04-28 10:08:30	Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale?	No	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0x77b22e…
04-28 10:06:18	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	19¢	$6	0x00d119…
04-28 10:05:22	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	28	19¢	$5	0x459207…
04-28 05:34:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0xf0ad71…
04-28 03:30:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	23¢	$4	0xd5cca2…
04-27 22:29:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xaf9bba…
04-27 19:18:52	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m?	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xca2009…
04-27 10:06:26	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Wolves	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xa34e28…
04-27 10:05:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x2b204d…
04-27 09:50:14	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	SELL	8	43¢	$3	0x901e60…
04-27 09:50:12	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	SELL	8	43¢	$3	0xa5c4ff…
04-27 04:20:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	42¢	$5	0x1c9cb4…
04-26 21:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$1	0xaa3ba3…
04-26 10:04:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	31¢	$5	0x5511da…
04-26 10:03:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0xe3b039…
04-26 09:23:48	Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m?	Yes	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x86bade…
04-26 02:00:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0x0e3edd…
04-25 14:50:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0xe4967e…
04-25 13:15:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	SELL	7	57¢	$4	0x2a6a03…
04-25 13:15:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0x5e9528…
04-25 10:07:00	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	No	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0x976995…
04-25 10:06:12	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0xf7f821…
04-25 10:04:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xdc181c…
04-25 01:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x4bc3be…
04-24 22:49:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0xb2e3f4…
04-24 05:09:52	btc updown 5m 1777007100	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xb6e587…
04-23 17:34:54	btc updown 5m 1776965400	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0x6e5356…
04-23 05:44:58	btc updown 5m 1776922800	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0x00107d…
04-23 03:49:52	btc updown 5m 1776915900	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0xe7546b…
04-23 01:29:58	btc updown 5m 1776907500	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0x6237b2…
04-23 00:00:56	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	8	41¢	$3	0xdcc506…
04-22 22:03:22	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	13	26¢	$3	0x42ab86…
04-22 13:10:14	btc updown 5m 1776863100	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x5f99c4…
04-22 12:04:58	btc updown 5m 1776859200	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x31ae1b…
04-22 10:08:40	Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0x9a9bbf…
04-22 10:08:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	Yes	BUY	8	44¢	$3	0x6c0024…
04-22 10:07:14	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0x7b8398…
04-22 07:24:54	btc updown 5m 1776842400	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0x8470f8…
04-22 02:17:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0xa05f4e…
04-21 22:06:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xe86357…
04-21 22:05:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xbb3758…
04-21 10:07:12	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xd79fd3…
04-21 10:06:36	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x6e5a6e…
04-21 10:05:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0xf4997e…
04-21 01:44:54	btc updown 5m 1776735600	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xe5b8c4…
04-20 22:40:46	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	6	51¢	$3	0x083362…
04-20 19:55:32	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	SELL	6	46¢	$3	0x81b8c2…
04-20 14:49:54	btc updown 5m 1776696300	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x0e8806…
04-20 10:05:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x93716d…
04-20 07:20:06	btc updown 5m 1776669300	Up	BUY	2	71¢	$2	0x7baa6a…
04-20 05:14:58	btc updown 5m 1776661800	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$1	0xecded7…
04-20 03:19:58	btc updown 5m 1776654900	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xf40c7c…
04-20 01:49:54	btc updown 5m 1776649500	Up	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x0965e9…
04-20 01:24:58	btc updown 5m 1776648000	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0x26363c…
04-20 00:39:54	btc updown 5m 1776645300	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0xcb0db5…
04-19 18:04:54	btc updown 5m 1776621600	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0x7bde82…
04-19 17:00:16	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x309705…
04-19 17:00:10	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	SELL	8	54¢	$4	0x68a819…
04-19 01:04:54	btc updown 5m 1776560400	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0xcebdf0…
04-19 00:24:52	btc updown 5m 1776558000	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$1	0xa46b65…
04-19 00:09:54	btc updown 5m 1776557100	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xb44bd0…
04-18 21:19:54	btc updown 5m 1776546900	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x3ddb97…
04-18 20:35:42	will furia win iem rio 2026	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x6d436c…
04-18 11:30:16	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	11	18¢	$2	0x647e37…