Neglected-Ethics — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$770

Hit rate

50.9%

Resolved

117

Trades

1,165

lifetime

Volume

$445.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$382

Open exposure

$32.1K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-11 13:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Other

90% 57% -$25,173

Politics

4% 91% +$382

Sports

3% 80% +$206

Tech

3% 67% +$52

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$29

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	+9,440	$8,312	94¢	$8.8K	+$514	07-16 12:43
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	-9,000	-$8,579	98¢	$-8815	-$237	07-21 12:52
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	-7,412	-$6,880	95¢	$-7075	-$195	07-21 12:53
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	-7,000	-$6,590	96¢	$-6723	-$133	09-11 13:19
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	+482	$232	96¢	$464	+$232	08-08 21:12
will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	+147	$92	84¢	$124	+$32	08-15 14:27
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	No	-841	-$646	10¢	$-88	+$558	06-20 16:36
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$0	92¢	$0	+$0	07-30 10:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	54	$133.6K	91,463	62,832	+28,632	Yes	-$1,225	01-31 07:08
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	63	$32.6K	37,274	8,060	+29,215	Yes	-$26,762	07-20 15:51
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 113	69	$25.5K	12,713	13,112	-400	No	+$227	03-25 07:45
will mrbeast hit 465 million subscribers by january 31 316 216 943	9	$18.2K	18,878	0	+18,878	Yes	+$631	01-30 18:52
will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by february 28	7	$14.0K	15,286	1,198	+14,088	No	+$1,039	02-28 19:10
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	20	$11.9K	6,600	6,118	+482	open	—	08-08 21:12
will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on january 2	6	$11.7K	10,188	1,597	+8,592	Yes	+$76	01-02 17:08
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	9	$10.4K	1,000	10,000	-9,000	open	—	07-21 12:52
will mrbeast hit 460 million subscribers by january 31	14	$9.9K	4,991	4,991	+0	Yes	+$25	01-07 09:03
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	62	$9.0K	4,835	4,835	+0	No	+$95	04-30 02:52
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?	16	$8.5K	688	7,848	-7,160	No	-$24	06-25 06:31
will deepseek have the top ai model at the end of march 2026	42	$8.4K	4,694	3,885	+809	No	+$110	03-30 11:50
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	30	$8.3K	9,440	0	+9,440	open	—	07-16 12:43
will mrbeast hit 470 million subscribers by march 31 822	18	$8.0K	4,715	4,205	+511	Yes	+$611	03-01 00:11
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	1	$6.9K	0	7,412	-7,412	open	—	07-21 12:53
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	12	$6.6K	0	7,000	-7,000	open	—	09-11 13:19
will xai have the 2 ai model at the end of january 2026	10	$5.7K	5,785	0	+5,785	Yes	+$62	01-31 14:35
will li guyi perform at the spring festival gala	17	$5.7K	5,810	90	+5,720	No	+$172	02-14 16:14
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	9	$5.6K	5,841	0	+5,841	No	+$201	03-03 17:01
will mrbeasts million dollar puzzle be solved by february 15	6	$5.4K	6,113	145	+5,968	No	+$272	02-16 04:41
Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	47	$5.3K	2,000	3,323	-1,323	No	+$33	05-29 15:26
will google have the top ai model at the end of january 2026	49	$4.4K	4,205	665	+3,540	Yes	+$442	01-31 15:03
will baidu have the second best ai model at the end of january 2026	8	$4.0K	2,039	2,100	-61	No	+$95	01-28 08:59
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	1	$4.0K	0	4,022	-4,022	No	-$20	06-10 16:22
will google have the second best ai model at the end of january 2026	9	$3.9K	2,008	2,008	+0	Yes	+$69	01-31 10:07
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$3.8K	4,000	0	+4,000	No	+$199	06-28 04:02
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$3.8K	4,000	0	+4,000	No	+$234	06-30 14:10
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	8	$3.7K	3,500	500	+3,000	No	+$208	07-01 17:50
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$3.7K	3,753	0	+3,753	No	+$39	04-26 07:13
will mrbeast hit 120 billion views by march 31 767 279 366 974	14	$3.3K	1,361	1,943	-582	No	+$38	03-25 01:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-11 13:19:13	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	3,000	95¢	$2,850	0x0642b3…
08-28 13:12:58	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	2,457	94¢	$2,309	0x144010…
08-28 09:01:07	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	163	94¢	$153	0x2e2f89…
08-28 08:38:12	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	18	94¢	$17	0x48727a…
08-28 06:35:01	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	7	94¢	$7	0x1e8a86…
08-27 23:49:54	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	294	94¢	$276	0x9c2b45…
08-15 14:27:37	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	BUY	30	65¢	$20	0x4644cd…
08-15 14:26:42	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0x9efcc0…
08-14 17:12:13	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x03c2f7…
08-13 16:48:27	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xe6fe3a…
08-13 16:23:54	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	43	94¢	$40	0x8a2295…
08-13 10:14:03	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x4d8c33…
08-13 09:07:49	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xf59b59…
08-13 05:48:13	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0xb83bc9…
08-08 21:12:16	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1,346	95¢	$1,285	0x6fda98…
08-08 19:25:37	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0xe436eb…
08-08 19:24:55	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xe476ee…
08-08 19:23:55	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0xe6a9c6…
08-08 15:22:01	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1,500	96¢	$1,432	0xa8dc72…
08-08 13:32:16	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	27	96¢	$26	0xe41152…
08-08 13:30:58	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	13	96¢	$12	0x44182f…
08-08 13:30:55	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x115cad…
08-08 13:30:52	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0xcdc3a1…
08-08 13:15:54	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0x573ccf…
08-08 12:21:46	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	34	95¢	$32	0x99d128…
08-08 11:48:42	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$955	0xae6f38…
08-08 11:28:09	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	500	96¢	$478	0xdea092…
08-08 10:59:13	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	87	96¢	$83	0x2d9b87…
08-08 09:38:03	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	No	SELL	1,548	96¢	$1,479	0x87eb7c…
08-08 09:36:36	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	150	70¢	$105	0xc9e034…
07-30 10:01:18	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	90¢	$8	0x1173eb…
07-30 09:56:18	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0xc53075…
07-29 13:14:08	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	90¢	$17	0xbe15af…
07-29 10:48:47	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x4573eb…
07-29 10:29:17	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x219a89…
07-28 14:15:38	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x52d84c…
07-28 13:56:58	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x6a8804…
07-28 12:42:56	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xd57ae3…
07-28 12:24:10	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	90¢	$26	0x2dac7d…
07-22 10:34:22	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x39d9ce…
07-22 02:15:25	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	92¢	$920	0xb25e43…
07-21 16:14:49	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	106	70¢	$74	0xfcf568…
07-21 16:14:28	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x609b93…
07-21 13:39:30	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	649	78¢	$506	0x03ccf7…
07-21 12:53:55	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	7,412	93¢	$6,880	0x8276e9…
07-21 12:53:27	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,546	7¢	$109	0xe15707…
07-21 12:52:54	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	SELL	7,095	96¢	$6,788	0x0446e2…
07-21 11:47:34	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xcc88f2…
07-21 11:16:52	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x0a00ed…
07-21 11:08:48	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0xf79585…
07-21 11:08:28	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x1adc0e…
07-21 06:01:09	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0x71d1e6…
07-20 17:16:16	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	90¢	$270	0x862ef1…
07-20 16:51:13	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x825367…
07-20 16:14:03	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	90¢	$5	0x0bc6ed…
07-20 15:51:16	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	973	39¢	$379	0x169ab0…
07-20 15:22:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	28	35¢	$10	0xc164cd…
07-20 15:22:36	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	0	35¢	$0	0x12c3f5…
07-20 15:22:34	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	2,211	35¢	$774	0xec4112…
07-20 15:22:34	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	244	35¢	$86	0x959876…
07-20 15:22:34	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	9	35¢	$3	0x8a8b91…
07-20 15:22:27	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1,044	35¢	$366	0x2b2754…
07-20 15:21:40	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	2,038	35¢	$713	0xcf1ce5…
07-20 15:07:30	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	1,513	38¢	$575	0x727b45…
07-20 14:57:34	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1,046	40¢	$418	0xb18165…
07-20 14:56:58	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	297	90¢	$267	0xaf3f9e…
07-20 14:56:13	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	1,035	90¢	$932	0xb0767e…
07-20 11:08:30	China x India military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0x4db1f9…
07-20 10:49:42	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	80¢	$800	0x9e6de0…
07-20 10:48:00	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	83¢	$830	0xd9b7d2…
07-20 10:34:42	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	299	85¢	$254	0xf67b79…
07-20 10:32:57	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	67	85¢	$57	0xed1852…
07-20 10:31:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x57e571…
07-20 10:29:43	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	333	85¢	$283	0xe32e81…
07-20 10:24:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	281	85¢	$239	0x5dfb78…
07-20 10:05:33	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0x079045…
07-18 08:26:43	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	324	58¢	$188	0xf2e69e…
07-18 08:26:43	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	58¢	$27	0xa379cf…
07-18 08:24:49	will mrbeast hit 510 million subscribers by july 31 20260623145858515	Yes	BUY	52	98¢	$51	0x434d80…
07-18 08:24:25	will mrbeast hit 136 billion views by july 31 20260623145506504	No	BUY	31	89¢	$28	0x8795b3…
07-18 08:23:58	will mrbeast hit 135 billion views by july 31 20260623145506502	Yes	BUY	210	97¢	$204	0x519ae9…
07-18 07:55:01	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	104	32¢	$33	0x7bee3b…
07-18 07:54:28	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,175	56¢	$655	0xdb9368…
07-17 12:42:12	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	80	75¢	$60	0xd3dca1…
07-17 08:48:06	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xd68c19…
07-16 12:44:52	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	58¢	$290	0x800df6…
07-16 12:43:49	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	BUY	3,000	91¢	$2,730	0x9acf09…
07-16 12:42:10	will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31	No	BUY	47	56¢	$27	0xb26414…
07-15 01:24:41	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xda5aaa…
07-15 01:22:37	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	58¢	$291	0xe7d94c…
07-14 15:48:04	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	39¢	$195	0xe1edd0…
07-14 15:47:19	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	39¢	$195	0x4ffe1d…
07-14 14:02:55	Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	91¢	$42	0xf05baa…
07-14 14:01:35	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	500	78¢	$391	0x1d0bd7…
07-14 14:01:05	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	500	78¢	$391	0x84052f…
07-12 04:43:17	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	38¢	$192	0xcaf75b…
07-11 08:42:52	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	500	38¢	$192	0x8b5cde…
07-10 19:42:53	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	65¢	$26	0xe6be89…
07-10 18:27:14	Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0x6a6616…
07-10 15:24:44	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	BUY	434	88¢	$382	0x95ae88…