Thorny-Oversight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$46

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,997

lifetime

Volume

$194.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$97

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-15

last 08-12 09:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

57% — —

Tech

21% — —

Other

20% 0% $-44

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-2

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 139 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	191	$25.5K	33,638	50	+33,588	open	—	07-24 18:52
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	116	$24.3K	13,716	13,716	+0	open	—	06-24 14:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	92	$24.1K	16,059	16,329	-270	open	—	08-01 17:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	26	$18.0K	13,520	5,000	+8,520	open	—	05-11 06:35
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	18	$13.0K	13,000	0	+13,000	open	—	06-05 20:16
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	77	$9.7K	11,303	15	+11,288	open	—	05-22 23:56
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	155	$6.9K	5,924	5,124	+800	open	—	06-16 14:40
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	11	$4.3K	3,430	1,843	+1,587	open	—	06-02 21:44
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	11	$3.3K	1,839	1,839	+0	open	—	06-12 23:32
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	5	$3.0K	3,258	0	+3,258	open	—	06-16 20:52
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	21	$2.5K	2,720	0	+2,720	open	—	05-31 16:11
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	28	$2.5K	1,424	2,040	-616	open	—	06-10 18:55
will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	18	$2.2K	1,479	1,429	+50	open	—	08-01 15:05
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	27	$2.1K	2,296	2,296	+0	open	—	07-31 15:13
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	3	$2.1K	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	06-07 21:29
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	1	$2.0K	2,100	0	+2,100	open	—	04-27 16:09
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	3	$2.0K	2,051	0	+2,051	open	—	06-09 22:18
will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	41	$2.0K	1,378	1,378	+0	open	—	07-24 22:56
New pandemic in 2026?	9	$1.8K	788	1,204	-416	open	—	07-27 16:38
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	21	$1.6K	2,972	1,857	+1,115	open	—	05-22 23:52
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	31	$1.3K	750	750	+0	open	—	07-02 15:07
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	3	$1.2K	1,030	930	+100	open	—	08-06 15:06
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	13	$1.1K	609	609	+0	open	—	07-05 22:07
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	14	$1.1K	1,193	0	+1,193	open	—	06-22 17:31
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	7	$1.1K	613	613	+0	open	—	07-17 17:29
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	5	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	07-18 00:47
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	21	$1.0K	743	843	-100	open	—	05-29 19:37
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	22	$1.0K	692	692	+0	open	—	08-04 18:05
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	29	$986	3,650	3,650	+0	open	—	06-21 07:12
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	14	$915	1,115	1,115	+0	open	—	07-07 19:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 14:37:42	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 11 2026 20260724221849642	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0x7b2336…
08-12 13:54:22	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 11 2026 20260724221849642	No	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0x96b562…
08-12 13:54:09	will donald trump publicly insult someone on august 11 2026 20260724221849642	No	BUY	83	89¢	$74	0xecc009…
08-12 09:16:34	will banksy create a new mural or street artwork by december 31	Yes	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0x436fee…
08-12 00:02:15	will banksy create a new mural or street artwork by december 31	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x12a09f…
08-11 23:10:13	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	90	79¢	$71	0xcb7206…
08-11 15:03:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0xa8ca40…
08-11 14:35:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0xd47f5c…
08-11 14:08:58	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xce6047…
08-11 11:56:51	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	No	BUY	254	93¢	$236	0xe757dc…
08-11 11:46:00	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0x1bb0a7…
08-11 10:06:07	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0xd37147…
08-11 10:06:07	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	No	BUY	4	92¢	$4	0x151b90…
08-11 10:06:07	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x07ba69…
08-11 09:41:01	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x58e7fc…
08-11 07:35:58	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	No	BUY	154	94¢	$144	0x6b3d24…
08-11 00:18:36	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	No	BUY	26	91¢	$24	0xdb376d…
08-11 00:18:28	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	No	BUY	51	91¢	$46	0xafbd85…
08-10 23:11:36	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster 674	No	BUY	17	93¢	$16	0x03817a…
08-10 18:40:34	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	200	83¢	$166	0x798f85…
08-10 18:26:12	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xbe4861…
08-10 14:19:15	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	SELL	360	35¢	$126	0xa197cd…
08-10 13:31:34	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xd4fecf…
08-10 05:12:27	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	BUY	29	33¢	$10	0xa72660…
08-10 05:12:24	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	BUY	111	33¢	$37	0x3ce2a3…
08-09 22:14:28	will banksy create a new mural or street artwork by december 31	Yes	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0xde23cb…
08-09 18:48:27	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	No	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xde0158…
08-09 17:41:10	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xfe86b9…
08-09 17:41:06	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	BUY	58	76¢	$44	0x0d078a…
08-09 17:10:09	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	BUY	42	76¢	$32	0xa426e5…
08-09 05:22:36	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x73a1de…
08-09 01:01:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0x44e9a6…
08-08 20:56:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	19	82¢	$15	0x0a4647…
08-08 20:56:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0xd20b9d…
08-08 13:56:49	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x3c7a1b…
08-08 13:54:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x374dcb…
08-07 19:20:40	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x2a276a…
08-07 18:01:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x175b0c…
08-07 12:43:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	210	58¢	$122	0xc908e9…
08-06 22:17:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	59¢	$18	0x5721ba…
08-06 21:59:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	60	59¢	$35	0x470ff7…
08-06 20:53:39	will banksy create a new mural or street artwork by december 31	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x997780…
08-06 20:34:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	70	60¢	$42	0x7c690a…
08-06 15:06:41	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	100	67¢	$67	0xef6850…
08-06 10:04:17	will banksy create a new mural or street artwork by december 31	Yes	BUY	23	80¢	$18	0x6e5b95…
08-05 18:50:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	61¢	$30	0x58ef2e…
08-04 18:05:11	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	22	60¢	$13	0x5e4406…
08-04 17:01:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x44d359…
08-04 17:01:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0xc879e6…
08-04 17:00:45	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	126	60¢	$76	0x746e12…
08-04 16:22:02	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x0ca997…
08-04 13:23:53	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	25	55¢	$14	0x5923f0…
08-04 13:23:50	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	19	58¢	$11	0x1b793c…
08-04 13:23:20	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x5e1fc2…
08-04 13:23:17	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x9eecc7…
08-04 13:22:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0x6f218a…
08-04 13:22:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x16e2e4…
08-03 20:58:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	SELL	530	77¢	$408	0xbb7507…
08-03 11:52:00	will thor die in avengers doomsday 20260701214259191	No	SELL	25	7¢	$2	0xdf100e…
08-02 23:22:27	will kazem gharibabadi attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044265	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x1cbab6…
08-02 21:50:26	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0x1a1a02…
08-02 21:50:20	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x97c0b9…
08-02 21:50:06	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	7	50¢	$3	0xe280b8…
08-02 21:49:54	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	53	50¢	$26	0x746647…
08-02 21:42:45	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xa96ee1…
08-02 19:17:38	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0xb02657…
08-02 15:45:59	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0x3e5c66…
08-02 15:45:33	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	SELL	93	44¢	$41	0x7b14b0…
08-02 15:38:15	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	38	42¢	$16	0x733239…
08-02 15:38:03	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xa6746f…
08-02 15:37:54	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x2f5ff7…
08-02 15:37:50	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x7fc8af…
08-02 15:37:05	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0x4c3134…
08-02 15:36:53	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x52e4b1…
08-02 15:36:50	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x9caee6…
08-02 15:36:50	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x40c611…
08-02 15:36:48	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xf997b4…
08-02 15:36:47	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x43df30…
08-02 15:36:47	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x2ef927…
08-02 15:36:47	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x171fc5…
08-02 15:33:56	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	Yes	BUY	17	42¢	$7	0x65d29e…
08-02 14:53:03	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x2b9dd8…
08-02 14:48:51	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	86	40¢	$35	0x46ff90…
08-02 14:48:44	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	4	40¢	$1	0xaf22e0…
08-02 14:48:05	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x25be3c…
08-02 14:47:59	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xb702c5…
08-02 14:41:56	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x9471e4…
08-02 14:16:03	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	84	50¢	$42	0x3c40b7…
08-02 14:14:38	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0xd8d223…
08-02 13:53:29	will banksy create a new mural or street artwork by december 31	Yes	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x27ed34…
08-02 13:36:17	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	89	37¢	$33	0x6d9d70…
08-02 13:36:17	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x067ca7…
08-02 13:36:05	will trump speak to emmanuel macron in july 20260626154217431	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x5ad90c…
08-02 08:31:14	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	140	70¢	$98	0x0e9575…
08-02 07:44:17	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x89ead4…
08-02 07:43:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	53	75¢	$40	0x21bba8…
08-02 07:14:02	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xc36212…
08-01 18:20:36	will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710	No	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0x64e909…
08-01 17:41:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x075534…
08-01 15:05:39	will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	No	SELL	1,429	80¢	$1,143	0x7d3a7a…