Thorny-Oversight — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$18.1K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.82K

Hit rate

92.7%

Resolved

316

Trades

3,089

lifetime

Volume

$400.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$130

Open exposure

$1.25K

12 positions

First seen

2026-04-15

last 10-27 21:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 102 days

Categories

Tech

43% 87% +$17,415

Politics

34% 63% +$909

Other

14% 52% -$863

Sports

5% 50% -$451

Crypto

4% 50% +$1,129

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$76

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+919	$639	44¢	$400	-$239	10-27 21:06
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+335	$294	72¢	$240	-$55	10-27 19:05
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	+203	$181	98¢	$199	+$18	10-25 21:42
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	No	+215	$181	92¢	$199	+$18	09-19 09:36
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	No	+135	$90	69¢	$93	+$3	10-24 13:53
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	+127	$90	68¢	$87	-$3	10-24 14:30
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+20	$6	28¢	$6	$0	10-16 18:58
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+8	$5	68¢	$5	+$0	10-21 16:29
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+6	$1,566	82¢	$5	-$1,561	10-25 22:21
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	Yes	+125	$4	4¢	$5	+$0	10-10 14:37
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	+13	$5	33¢	$4	-$1	10-20 14:00
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+16	$4	26¢	$4	$0	10-12 13:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 starship 563	32	$102.1K	105,098	2,005	+103,093	No	+$3,193	09-15 07:36
will spacex starship flight test 13 superheavy pop	206	$26.4K	34,935	50	+34,885	Yes	+$8,526	07-24 18:52
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	108	$25.0K	16,750	16,744	+6	open	—	10-25 22:21
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	116	$24.3K	13,716	13,716	+0	open	—	06-24 14:43
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$18.2K	9,340	9,340	+0	No	+$101	06-28 17:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	26	$18.0K	13,520	5,000	+8,520	No	+$477	05-11 06:35
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	17	$15.6K	14,873	1,843	+13,030	No	+$1,130	06-02 21:44
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	79	$14.1K	18,176	0	+18,176	Yes	+$4,113	09-28 12:28
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	18	$13.0K	13,000	0	+13,000	Yes	+$26	06-05 20:16
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$10.0K	10,870	0	+10,870	No	+$870	06-07 18:31
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	78	$9.7K	11,311	15	+11,296	Yes	+$1,623	05-22 23:56
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?	27	$9.0K	9,163	0	+9,163	No	+$123	08-24 09:31
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	156	$7.1K	5,924	5,924	+0	Yes	+$47	06-16 14:40
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	14	$4.3K	4,726	0	+4,726	No	+$382	06-16 20:52
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	33	$4.3K	4,638	0	+4,638	Yes	+$343	05-31 16:11
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	11	$3.3K	1,839	1,839	+0	No	+$260	06-12 23:32
will trump restart project freedom by june 30	38	$2.9K	2,040	2,040	+0	Yes	-$239	06-10 18:55
will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 superheavy booster	77	$2.5K	2,746	0	+2,746	No	+$240	08-22 09:40
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	27	$2.4K	2,123	1,204	+919	open	—	10-27 21:06
New pandemic in 2026?	10	$2.2K	1,204	1,204	+0	open	—	07-27 16:38
will donald trump publicly insult emmanuel macron by july 31 2026 20260626210612731	18	$2.2K	1,479	1,429	+50	No	+$162	08-01 15:05
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	27	$2.1K	2,296	2,296	+0	No	-$322	07-31 15:13
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	5	$2.1K	1,184	1,184	+0	Yes	+$3	06-07 21:29
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	1	$2.0K	2,100	0	+2,100	No	+$67	04-27 16:09
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	3	$2.0K	2,051	0	+2,051	No	+$51	06-09 22:18
will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	41	$2.0K	1,378	1,378	+0	Yes	+$162	07-24 22:56
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	22	$2.0K	2,972	2,972	+0	Yes	-$601	05-22 23:52
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	15	$1.8K	1,364	1,364	+0	open	—	09-20 16:20
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	5	$1.8K	990	990	+0	open	—	10-26 20:00
Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027?	21	$1.6K	2,013	297	+1,715	Yes	-$1,206	08-11 14:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 01:20:36	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	SELL	50	61¢	$30	0xd17a1d…
10-27 21:06:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	145	68¢	$99	0xa44264…
10-27 20:51:47	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	188	69¢	$130	0x23eba7…
10-27 20:46:00	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	59	70¢	$41	0x96ef43…
10-27 20:46:00	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	142	70¢	$99	0x0c0f57…
10-27 20:45:50	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	85	70¢	$60	0x8b90bc…
10-27 20:43:24	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	120	70¢	$84	0xff22c3…
10-27 20:43:23	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	180	70¢	$126	0x85e27d…
10-27 20:32:33	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	38	60¢	$23	0x08be75…
10-27 20:32:12	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	Yes	BUY	12	60¢	$7	0x5a9f12…
10-27 20:15:56	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	860	75¢	$645	0x57e2b2…
10-27 20:08:06	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	247	10¢	$25	0x82c151…
10-27 19:05:09	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	12	72¢	$8	0xdece5e…
10-27 17:55:02	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	234	77¢	$180	0x7b9459…
10-27 17:17:20	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	SELL	347	71¢	$246	0xe1b612…
10-27 17:03:05	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	25	73¢	$18	0xbb8931…
10-27 17:02:18	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	222	73¢	$162	0xd34467…
10-27 15:07:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0xb25b99…
10-27 14:28:33	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0xd27540…
10-27 14:10:26	Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	263	78¢	$205	0xe8c5b1…
10-27 09:32:29	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	247	73¢	$180	0x5accf9…
10-27 08:50:18	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	36	72¢	$26	0x38e222…
10-27 08:49:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	107	72¢	$77	0x2f91b3…
10-27 08:48:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	107	72¢	$77	0x1cea27…
10-27 06:29:44	Will Lionel Messi rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	No	SELL	10	71¢	$7	0x2dcc96…
10-27 06:29:27	Will Lionel Messi rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	No	SELL	199	71¢	$142	0xf2d665…
10-27 06:29:21	Will Lionel Messi rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	No	SELL	3	71¢	$2	0x10a30c…
10-26 22:39:15	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	SELL	179	87¢	$156	0x1196fa…
10-26 20:56:50	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x85efd3…
10-26 20:00:05	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	143	91¢	$130	0x8fe836…
10-26 18:57:29	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	12	91¢	$11	0x097955…
10-26 18:56:02	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	375	91¢	$341	0x2c658f…
10-26 18:10:11	Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	460	91¢	$419	0x28efb1…
10-26 17:06:50	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	No	SELL	19	87¢	$16	0x674175…
10-26 15:39:32	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xfa7826…
10-26 15:39:32	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	6	74¢	$4	0x8ab895…
10-26 15:39:32	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0x1c909a…
10-26 15:02:54	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	29	31¢	$9	0xff17c9…
10-26 14:29:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	137	75¢	$103	0x4fdd25…
10-26 14:06:12	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	29	71¢	$21	0x099536…
10-26 14:04:36	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	81	82¢	$67	0xa75c91…
10-26 14:04:36	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	274	82¢	$224	0x02263c…
10-25 23:48:29	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	11	67¢	$7	0x7f18a4…
10-25 23:03:11	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xa53d98…
10-25 22:21:47	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x42cc7a…
10-25 21:42:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xa45dc6…
10-25 21:42:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	91	89¢	$81	0xe62dca…
10-25 20:22:47	Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0x25dcb7…
10-25 15:22:03	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	16	44¢	$7	0xb088d2…
10-25 15:20:54	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	64	41¢	$26	0x30ebff…
10-25 15:20:54	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	16	43¢	$7	0x2c8ec9…
10-25 15:15:15	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	127	40¢	$51	0x97713d…
10-25 07:33:35	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0x134f44…
10-24 20:22:06	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x1b42ec…
10-24 18:42:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	302	79¢	$239	0x9e57aa…
10-24 16:06:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	71	78¢	$55	0x9215b0…
10-24 16:05:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	61	79¢	$48	0xe63653…
10-24 15:58:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	52	80¢	$42	0xa77112…
10-24 14:38:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	123	73¢	$90	0x0e19fb…
10-24 14:30:24	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	BUY	127	71¢	$90	0xf05501…
10-24 13:53:38	Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	No	BUY	135	67¢	$90	0x0e5e31…
10-24 13:37:18	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	SELL	19	64¢	$12	0x14e935…
10-23 19:57:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0xc9fba5…
10-23 19:31:51	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	31	74¢	$23	0xe3e3aa…
10-23 17:10:11	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	100¢	$62	0xa9c771…
10-23 16:58:30	Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027?	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x28259c…
10-23 16:56:27	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xd353bd…
10-23 16:35:32	Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	254	71¢	$180	0x42fcc2…
10-23 16:26:45	Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027?	No	BUY	257	70¢	$180	0x08ac1f…
10-23 15:21:05	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x8a9e8c…
10-23 13:58:02	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x7a7d20…
10-23 09:08:21	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xd65826…
10-22 23:40:21	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	28	75¢	$21	0x230aca…
10-22 15:54:00	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0x847b3f…
10-22 15:22:41	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by December 31?	No	BUY	113	80¢	$90	0x2099de…
10-22 11:31:35	Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?	No	SELL	31	91¢	$28	0x2c597b…
10-22 08:43:24	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$18	0x58c885…
10-22 08:42:14	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	87¢	$67	0x0f2e27…
10-22 07:41:17	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	87¢	$15	0xdbae0e…
10-22 05:49:41	Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	No	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0x1488e8…
10-22 05:09:53	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xb9b343…
10-21 23:29:29	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	72¢	$21	0x5bb8b7…
10-21 23:28:54	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x083454…
10-21 23:28:48	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	76¢	$13	0xb94105…
10-21 19:12:57	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	78¢	$9	0xd25239…
10-21 17:25:06	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	228	79¢	$180	0x3328a8…
10-21 16:29:12	Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xca6d4b…
10-21 16:23:08	Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	SELL	11	57¢	$6	0xefedb7…
10-21 15:52:11	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x847001…
10-21 15:45:12	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	14	44¢	$6	0x9b0ea2…
10-21 15:12:09	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	21	44¢	$9	0xf53907…
10-21 14:49:29	Will Lionel Messi rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Athletes of 2026?	No	SELL	222	72¢	$160	0xd5f1e4…
10-21 09:44:23	Will Jeremy Matlow win the Tallahassee mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x54e16c…
10-20 14:24:30	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	78	69¢	$54	0x360901…
10-20 14:22:39	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	16	70¢	$11	0x2dd506…
10-20 14:00:36	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xcdf12a…
10-20 14:00:36	Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0x33f990…
10-20 13:57:17	Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0x685dc8…
10-20 13:32:08	No one announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0xe23ebb…
10-19 18:30:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	29	20¢	$6	0x9fe19c…