Crisp-Outfit — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$285

Unrealized P&L

-$618

Hit rate

56.8%

Resolved

Trades

290

lifetime

Volume

$22.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$76

Open exposure

$319

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-27 07:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Politics

99% 29% +$282

Other

1% 100% +$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+3,147	$887	10¢	$299	-$588	10-27 07:57
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	+321	$46	6¢	$18	-$28	10-26 08:49
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?	Yes	+23	$1	4¢	$1	+$0	10-06 11:08
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes	+17	$1	3¢	$1	$0	10-06 11:09
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+14	$1	3¢	$0	-$1	10-06 11:06
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+6	$1	3¢	$0	-$1	10-13 16:37
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	Yes	+0	$0	16¢	$0	$0	05-15 06:39
russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	+0	$0	1¢	$0	$0	06-19 16:42

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	27	$5.4K	10,916	7,770	+3,147	open	—	10-27 07:57
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	8	$3.1K	4,033	3,348	+685	Yes	+$838	05-09 19:10
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	7	$2.3K	18,157	18,157	+0	No	-$400	02-05 13:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	21	$2.3K	25,622	23,622	+2,000	Yes	+$421	05-09 19:10
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	10	$1.9K	47,659	63,339	-15,680	No	+$234	01-24 12:55
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	8	$1.5K	8,615	8,615	+0	No	-$572	03-13 17:04
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	5	$805	10,218	8,228	+1,990	Yes	-$3	05-09 19:11
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	11	$757	2,534	2,213	+321	open	—	10-26 08:49
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	23	$690	6,237	5,908	+329	No	-$70	06-20 15:08
ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	11	$580	5,012	3,762	+1,250	No	+$6	08-13 05:11
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?	31	$517	5,914	5,914	+0	No	+$45	05-25 19:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	3	$385	653	653	+0	open	—	05-27 13:20
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	8	$255	2,849	2,849	+0	No	-$65	05-25 19:00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	2	$229	1,758	1,758	+0	No	-$18	03-16 07:32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	4	$177	842	842	+0	No	-$25	05-27 11:30
untitled market 1 20260629155005352	5	$156	405	405	+0	No	+$2	07-02 05:33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	9	$140	3,415	3,415	+0	No	-$22	05-24 14:22
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	6	$121	2,221	2,221	+0	No	-$59	05-14 08:26
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	9	$108	350	350	+0	open	—	05-28 18:09
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	12	$70	661	661	+0	No	+$1	05-14 14:14
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	8	$69	644	594	+50	No	-$15	10-11 14:18
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	6	$54	120	115	+6	Yes	-$6	05-22 09:24
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	5	$51	159	159	+0	Yes	-$1	10-16 15:58
ukraine election called by december 31 2026	3	$49	130	130	+0	open	—	06-19 16:41
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	6	$43	531	531	+0	open	—	10-24 17:37
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	9	$36	575	566	+8	No	-$2	06-05 07:56
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	6	$33	113	113	+0	No	+$1	05-14 17:30
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	3	$23	267	267	+0	open	—	10-13 05:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	2	$19	45	45	+0	Yes	-$1	05-18 19:14
us strikes iran by january 13 2026 771	2	$19	102	102	+0	No	-$5	01-13 18:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 07:57:35	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	9¢	$4	0x4c8f3c…
10-26 08:49:20	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	401	6¢	$24	0xdbaeb4…
10-24 17:43:38	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xcab98f…
10-24 17:43:18	US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x0234d4…
10-24 17:37:57	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	525	4¢	$20	0xa54b2d…
10-18 07:15:15	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	6¢	$5	0x04892b…
10-16 15:58:33	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	16¢	$5	0x6a6d3e…
10-16 15:39:33	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	16¢	$1	0x4d2b94…
10-16 15:28:58	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	123	16¢	$19	0x7d7b19…
10-15 19:39:41	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	156	16¢	$25	0xdffe45…
10-14 16:27:43	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xa819d7…
10-13 16:37:34	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x4e8dd7…
10-13 05:44:16	U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	Yes	SELL	267	4¢	$12	0xdb00e6…
10-11 14:18:52	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x11fc28…
10-10 16:55:04	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	625	8¢	$50	0x436d4a…
10-10 03:57:43	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	342	2¢	$8	0x5b3f6a…
10-08 20:09:18	U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	Yes	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0xc78f5c…
10-06 14:37:21	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0x43a344…
10-06 14:36:32	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0x4aa31b…
10-06 11:20:37	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x51341a…
10-06 11:15:42	US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x8d2d48…
10-06 11:13:55	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2eea66…
10-06 11:11:39	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x5ec504…
10-06 11:09:18	Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xbdd641…
10-06 11:08:22	EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xcffe5a…
10-06 11:06:54	Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x2eb058…
10-06 11:05:13	U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xae573d…
10-06 11:03:19	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0x2461e5…
10-06 10:36:12	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	6¢	$20	0x9aedca…
10-05 18:31:53	russia ukraine peace talks by october 15 2026	Yes	SELL	57	6¢	$3	0x9ae162…
10-05 17:01:34	russia ukraine peace talks by october 15 2026	Yes	SELL	65	8¢	$5	0xd4b51f…
10-05 17:00:53	russia ukraine peace talks by october 15 2026	Yes	SELL	131	8¢	$10	0xcf1df2…
10-05 15:59:56	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	8¢	$20	0x074753…
10-05 14:05:13	russia ukraine peace talks by october 15 2026	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x2e3c45…
08-13 05:11:39	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0xac8b96…
08-13 05:10:49	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	17¢	$10	0xc698a5…
07-25 06:57:22	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	Yes	SELL	495	7¢	$35	0x6bf6fd…
07-24 21:09:21	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	Yes	SELL	495	6¢	$30	0xae85fc…
07-17 06:41:00	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	110	19¢	$21	0x13539c…
07-13 14:03:25	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	150	19¢	$28	0xe6dfee…
07-08 13:27:32	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	Yes	SELL	440	5¢	$22	0x1554ee…
07-06 06:23:52	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	Yes	BUY	113	6¢	$7	0x292653…
07-05 16:41:02	ukraine election called by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	80	8¢	$7	0xbfd3ea…
07-02 05:38:55	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	Yes	BUY	1,317	6¢	$79	0x9c3557…
07-02 05:33:34	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	SELL	405	19¢	$79	0x621f0b…
07-01 10:33:58	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	BUY	132	19¢	$25	0xee7d81…
07-01 10:33:35	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0x4f59c2…
07-01 10:27:55	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	BUY	216	19¢	$41	0x28c6ed…
07-01 10:24:37	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0x09b198…
07-01 10:18:01	Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xe5fa6b…
07-01 10:15:46	ukraine election called by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	80	6¢	$5	0xc92e3b…
07-01 09:57:23	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x69e656…
06-29 15:03:58	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	Yes	SELL	583	10¢	$58	0xb0d3e7…
06-27 10:05:25	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	Yes	SELL	1,749	8¢	$148	0xd8ae84…
06-23 11:17:40	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	Yes	BUY	1,875	8¢	$150	0xed77d6…
06-21 11:11:59	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	Yes	BUY	205	11¢	$22	0x7eff34…
06-20 15:08:37	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	322	1¢	$4	0x89a9c9…
06-19 19:41:08	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x876826…
06-19 16:42:56	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0xffc829…
06-19 16:42:37	russia x ukraine diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026 20260609011545513	Yes	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xdcbbde…
06-19 16:41:07	ukraine election called by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	130	18¢	$23	0xc31184…
06-19 16:39:23	ukraine signs peace deal with russia by august 31 20260619003108240	Yes	BUY	252	8¢	$19	0x197d1e…
06-19 16:38:58	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	626	29¢	$180	0x84e509…
06-17 17:15:11	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,980	29¢	$878	0xff3b7c…
06-17 09:20:19	ukraine election called by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	125	20¢	$25	0xb9f429…
06-17 09:03:11	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xff7edc…
06-17 05:07:52	ukraine election called by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xe80962…
06-17 05:06:22	russia x ukraine diplomatic meeting by september 30 2026 20260609011545513	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x093c7d…
06-17 05:03:44	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x8e68f0…
06-17 04:57:29	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	194	29¢	$56	0xfe1280…
06-17 04:56:19	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,900	29¢	$851	0xd2ffc8…
06-12 06:55:10	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	120	27¢	$32	0x34c4e7…
06-07 19:33:48	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	242	28¢	$68	0xd50f39…
06-06 19:55:07	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3,456	29¢	$1,000	0xdade0e…
06-06 08:32:03	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xc23059…
06-06 08:30:16	Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xf04888…
06-05 19:52:37	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	60	5¢	$3	0xde1219…
06-05 19:51:19	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	776	5¢	$40	0x08df68…
06-05 14:19:45	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	30¢	$1	0x5060fe…
06-05 09:49:45	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xe81261…
06-05 09:47:54	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	844	5¢	$40	0xd13a52…
06-05 09:46:42	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1,687	5¢	$85	0x379cc7…
06-05 07:56:03	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	2¢	$1	0x329b35…
06-05 07:55:49	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0x58ef48…
06-05 06:06:52	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,683	31¢	$838	0x2ffcbd…
06-04 20:16:46	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	3¢	$2	0xf22fff…
06-04 20:03:13	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	3¢	$2	0x69e309…
06-04 19:04:06	Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	5¢	$2	0x10a48f…
05-28 18:09:38	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	250	4¢	$11	0x3c4c25…
05-28 18:09:21	Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	119	9¢	$11	0xe57d56…
05-28 12:33:14	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	38	29¢	$11	0xd4e55b…
05-28 12:32:21	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	17¢	$11	0x72e231…
05-27 16:05:35	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	277	29¢	$80	0xcd81ec…
05-27 13:25:29	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	103	29¢	$30	0x35c32a…
05-27 13:21:48	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xf682ab…
05-27 13:21:05	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	517	29¢	$150	0x9feb62…
05-27 13:20:23	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	653	29¢	$189	0x929f9d…
05-27 11:36:03	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	988	30¢	$299	0xf74301…
05-27 11:35:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	30¢	$100	0xad0d64…
05-27 11:31:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	320	30¢	$96	0xe6a1ac…