Plain-Mezzanine — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$114

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.1%

Resolved

Trades

10,369

lifetime

Volume

$363.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 08-02 03:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

70% 50% $-119

Other

27% 50% +$4

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 233 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	183	$28.7K	23,513	22,958	+556	open	—	03-04 16:13
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	394	$24.5K	24,780	25,136	-356	open	—	03-01 01:57
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	186	$22.2K	19,002	16,391	+2,611	open	—	04-23 00:20
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	414	$12.4K	9,352	8,241	+1,111	open	—	03-12 17:53
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	211	$11.6K	21,992	20,339	+1,653	open	—	04-09 00:26
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	218	$11.5K	10,154	10,324	-170	open	—	02-28 22:06
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	258	$10.9K	10,977	10,994	-17	open	—	04-22 14:39
netanyahu out by march 31 854	113	$10.6K	8,467	8,467	+0	open	—	03-25 01:04
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	308	$10.5K	10,472	9,672	+799	open	—	04-08 00:16
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	390	$10.5K	11,060	10,867	+193	open	—	03-30 00:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	444	$10.3K	13,715	13,512	+203	open	—	05-31 10:45
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	205	$8.9K	7,019	7,045	-26	open	—	04-12 19:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	233	$8.1K	6,731	6,729	+2	open	—	04-09 11:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	237	$7.9K	7,278	7,212	+66	open	—	04-28 02:15
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	391	$7.8K	8,777	7,623	+1,154	open	—	04-25 08:34
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	94	$7.7K	15,543	8,880	+6,663	open	—	06-03 23:06
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	83	$6.3K	4,030	4,030	-0	open	—	05-21 19:08
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	88	$5.7K	15,290	4,040	+11,250	open	—	03-04 17:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	95	$5.4K	4,719	4,846	-127	open	—	06-14 22:33
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	198	$5.3K	5,509	6,547	-1,039	open	—	06-16 00:03
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	159	$4.8K	4,151	4,745	-595	open	—	04-21 18:08
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	163	$4.6K	4,153	4,153	+0	open	—	04-21 16:16
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	153	$4.4K	4,136	3,376	+760	open	—	03-11 23:55
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	171	$3.7K	3,412	3,060	+352	open	—	06-15 14:12
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	101	$3.7K	1,751	1,997	-246	open	—	04-24 01:06
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	36	$3.5K	2,257	1,299	+958	open	—	05-19 16:01
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	299	$3.4K	3,594	3,230	+364	open	—	06-15 23:47
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	93	$3.1K	2,704	2,762	-58	open	—	04-26 02:02
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	149	$3.1K	4,818	3,846	+973	open	—	05-31 10:45
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	289	$3.1K	10,061	8,590	+1,472	open	—	03-08 04:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-02 03:54:09	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	24	3¢	$1	0x887f5c…
08-02 00:39:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	SELL	56	17¢	$9	0xc2a392…
08-02 00:38:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x1296c4…
08-01 21:37:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	82	13¢	$11	0xbde3a0…
08-01 19:14:29	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	38	91¢	$34	0xaa3bf3…
07-31 17:00:41	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	56	96¢	$53	0x7ee17a…
07-31 16:58:59	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	56	96¢	$54	0xe1e289…
07-30 21:49:56	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0x03ffe1…
07-30 21:49:14	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x669c10…
07-30 21:19:56	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0x237ba1…
07-30 21:18:54	will donald trump publicly insult vladimir putin by july 31 2026 20260626210612715	Yes	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0xac449c…
07-30 18:20:33	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	28¢	$7	0xde48a1…
07-30 17:53:12	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	184	33¢	$61	0xc78386…
07-29 19:37:11	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	71	38¢	$27	0x5ba856…
07-29 19:37:11	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	114	38¢	$43	0x44fd26…
07-29 19:07:33	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	SELL	16	37¢	$6	0xa1421c…
07-29 19:07:11	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	16	38¢	$6	0x739b9a…
07-29 13:46:26	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	SELL	135	6¢	$8	0xc7944b…
07-28 15:03:46	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	243	7¢	$17	0xd3670e…
07-28 14:04:07	will turkey join the abraham accords before 2027	No	SELL	28	81¢	$22	0x2b2955…
07-28 14:03:35	will turkey join the abraham accords before 2027	No	BUY	19	91¢	$17	0x06a157…
07-28 14:03:26	will turkey join the abraham accords before 2027	No	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x55b3f0…
07-27 23:01:48	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0xee39a3…
07-27 23:01:09	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0x9323c5…
07-27 20:14:04	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0xaa96f0…
07-27 19:44:25	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0xb44998…
07-27 17:35:43	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x65ec49…
07-27 17:35:22	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0xb5e843…
07-27 17:32:24	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0xcec86b…
07-27 16:30:01	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	250	7¢	$17	0x3d0ce2…
07-27 16:29:24	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	250	7¢	$17	0x8d629e…
07-27 10:20:18	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$8	0xa04d89…
07-27 10:19:37	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	8	92¢	$8	0x564075…
07-27 08:30:37	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	12	91¢	$11	0x0fba44…
07-27 08:29:36	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x9638da…
07-27 06:15:34	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	34	91¢	$31	0xabe8bc…
07-27 06:13:34	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0xb2ff4e…
07-27 06:13:34	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x56405e…
07-27 06:13:13	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x1ef3a5…
07-27 04:35:34	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	31	91¢	$29	0x20598f…
07-27 04:34:52	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0xfa172b…
07-27 04:34:52	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xb7d308…
07-27 03:13:52	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xca800d…
07-27 02:06:12	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	14	91¢	$13	0xce4dd8…
07-27 02:05:51	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0xd19a67…
07-27 01:47:31	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	22	91¢	$20	0x382951…
07-27 01:46:30	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xf38faf…
07-27 01:46:30	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x2f090d…
07-26 23:36:49	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	22	91¢	$20	0xf80744…
07-26 23:35:07	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x1d97eb…
07-26 23:34:28	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x3a3105…
07-26 22:26:48	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	22	91¢	$20	0xb708c0…
07-26 22:25:06	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x199710…
07-26 22:25:06	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x0e0aa8…
07-26 14:40:12	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	15	91¢	$14	0xbd933f…
07-26 14:39:30	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0xd25342…
07-26 01:24:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	40	76¢	$30	0x9cea4b…
07-26 01:24:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	40	76¢	$30	0x22ecf8…
07-26 00:48:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	42	76¢	$32	0x3b65e5…
07-25 21:43:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	SELL	13	74¢	$10	0xa2c138…
07-25 21:43:36	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xb5f3e5…
07-25 21:20:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	91	74¢	$67	0x5a1a23…
07-25 21:19:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	91	75¢	$68	0x96fc28…
07-25 19:37:25	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0x76dca6…
07-25 19:35:43	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0x61c0ad…
07-25 11:59:31	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x0e4e87…
07-25 11:58:25	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0xa37331…
07-24 06:26:58	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	19	89¢	$17	0x40b626…
07-23 16:25:24	will turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026	No	BUY	8	91¢	$8	0x292795…
07-21 13:42:12	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	119	7¢	$9	0x18571e…
07-21 13:40:27	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	119	8¢	$9	0xfc6ddc…
07-21 01:14:13	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	BUY	125	7¢	$9	0xb294eb…
07-19 19:01:54	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	34	93¢	$31	0x51adfa…
07-19 00:32:51	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	12	97¢	$12	0xe1ca5c…
07-18 23:52:48	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	12	97¢	$11	0x10bd14…
07-18 23:43:49	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	9	96¢	$8	0x1f7f79…
07-18 23:43:27	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$5	0x793a6e…
07-18 23:39:07	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x0d9d36…
07-18 23:39:07	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	0	97¢	$0	0x025094…
07-18 23:20:28	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x22dd1f…
07-18 23:18:46	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x6b8c1e…
07-18 23:18:09	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x47fc21…
07-18 23:01:48	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	13	96¢	$13	0x41cd7d…
07-18 23:00:46	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xf513d1…
07-18 21:17:07	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	BUY	58	19¢	$11	0xce13f3…
07-18 21:07:46	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	28	95¢	$26	0xc31a88…
07-18 21:06:45	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0xbd320a…
07-18 19:34:46	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	50	95¢	$47	0xca8e76…
07-18 19:33:45	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$47	0x1f9546…
07-18 18:55:06	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	75	16¢	$12	0xf27ccf…
07-18 18:53:43	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	BUY	75	18¢	$14	0xaa8a6d…
07-18 18:25:25	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	14	96¢	$13	0xcbc712…
07-18 18:23:43	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0xdcd7c4…
07-18 17:48:04	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x2c00b6…
07-18 17:46:22	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x8e9686…
07-16 20:18:16	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	60	97¢	$58	0x70df52…
07-16 20:16:34	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xf57fc6…
07-16 20:15:56	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	SELL	25	97¢	$25	0xf263b7…
07-16 20:15:55	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x685d29…
07-16 20:14:14	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0xd71d1d…