Plain-Mezzanine — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$1.04K

Unrealized P&L

-$107

Hit rate

14.7%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

1,958

19,092 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$71.4K

$643.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

$34

Open exposure

$1.33K

7 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 11-13 17:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 112 days

Categories

Politics

54% 41% -$2,963

Other

23% 41% +$415

Sports

22% 8% -$2,916

Crypto

1% 100% +$24

Tech

0% 100% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 316 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	+722	$711	99¢	$715	+$3	11-13 17:43
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+451	$430	97¢	$440	+$10	10-31 08:02
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-79	-$37	92¢	$-72	-$35	10-29 17:17
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	-61	-$57	99¢	$-60	-$3	05-04 16:38
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	-35	$1	97¢	$-34	-$35	05-25 17:14
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	+347	$35	2¢	$5	-$30	11-02 15:04
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+2,016	$20	0¢	$3	-$17	06-23 23:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	183	$28.7K	23,513	22,958	+556	No	+$108	03-04 16:13
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	394	$24.5K	24,780	25,136	-356	Yes	-$249	03-01 01:57
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	186	$22.2K	19,002	16,391	+2,611	No	+$130	04-23 00:20
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	521	$22.2K	28,351	26,313	+2,038	No	-$586	07-15 21:04
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	886	$20.2K	25,154	14,793	+10,360	No	-$3,358	07-14 20:46
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	122	$16.3K	14,757	11,664	+3,094	No	-$206	07-05 21:51
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	318	$14.6K	13,267	13,267	+0	No	-$31	10-26 00:03
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	536	$12.5K	17,517	14,759	+2,758	No	-$195	07-06 20:59
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	414	$12.4K	9,352	8,241	+1,111	Yes	+$94	03-12 17:53
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	211	$11.6K	21,992	20,339	+1,653	Yes	-$180	04-09 00:26
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	218	$11.5K	10,154	10,324	-170	Yes	+$161	02-28 22:06
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	234	$11.0K	11,824	10,626	+1,198	Yes	-$91	10-25 23:58
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	258	$10.9K	10,977	10,994	-17	No	-$425	04-22 14:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	470	$10.7K	13,911	13,862	+50	No	-$332	05-31 15:21
netanyahu out by march 31 854	113	$10.6K	8,467	8,467	+0	No	+$89	03-25 01:04
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	308	$10.5K	10,472	9,672	+799	Yes	+$108	04-08 00:16
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	121	$10.5K	11,372	7,080	+4,292	No	-$205	06-29 23:26
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	390	$10.5K	11,060	10,867	+193	No	-$126	03-30 00:19
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	280	$9.9K	6,994	6,994	-0	No	+$450	06-12 06:57
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	392	$8.9K	8,777	8,777	+0	Yes	-$102	05-04 16:38
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	205	$8.9K	7,019	7,045	-26	No	+$437	04-12 19:59
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	314	$8.3K	8,983	8,983	+0	Yes	-$179	06-16 00:03
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	492	$8.2K	12,410	8,616	+3,794	Yes	+$3,180	07-14 21:15
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	233	$8.1K	6,731	6,729	+2	Yes	-$165	04-09 11:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	237	$8.0K	7,092	7,092	+0	Yes	-$6	06-14 22:33
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	198	$8.0K	6,062	6,062	+0	open	—	10-30 22:23
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	237	$7.9K	7,278	7,212	+66	No	-$145	04-28 02:15
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	99	$7.9K	15,692	8,928	+6,765	No	+$23	06-03 23:06
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	201	$7.7K	12,344	8,452	+3,893	No	-$317	07-15 20:56
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	332	$6.9K	5,278	5,277	+1	No	+$16	06-15 14:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-13 17:43:55	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	167	98¢	$164	0x485dd3…
11-13 17:43:55	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	278	98¢	$273	0x4049d3…
11-13 17:39:15	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	278	99¢	$274	0x1927eb…
11-02 18:17:52	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	139	93¢	$129	0x0c5f45…
11-02 18:16:31	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	139	93¢	$129	0x8aefca…
11-02 18:13:13	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	278	95¢	$264	0xaedbd7…
11-02 18:12:33	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	278	96¢	$267	0x6f1426…
11-02 18:10:52	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	21	38¢	$8	0x02d03c…
11-02 18:09:31	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	21	38¢	$8	0x75c57d…
11-02 16:02:16	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	237	6¢	$14	0x070512…
11-02 15:58:57	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	141	6¢	$8	0xb85903…
11-02 15:58:57	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	175	6¢	$11	0x4b3e92…
11-02 15:50:36	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	127	6¢	$8	0x8d68cb…
11-02 15:04:45	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	SELL	47	86¢	$40	0x662ef6…
11-02 15:04:43	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	25	75¢	$19	0x78c703…
11-02 15:04:42	Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0x68d219…
11-02 15:04:40	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x2c3f79…
11-02 15:04:39	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xeff9a9…
11-02 15:04:39	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xd98620…
11-02 15:04:39	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x90f02a…
11-02 15:04:37	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x83e74b…
11-02 15:04:37	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x3259b7…
11-02 15:04:37	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x2b42e7…
11-02 15:04:36	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x81e224…
11-02 15:04:36	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x1f1ad3…
11-02 15:04:34	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	3¢	$0	0xce98d9…
11-02 15:04:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	No	BUY	47	88¢	$41	0xc44dbb…
11-02 15:04:34	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x2e04af…
11-02 15:04:33	Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	76¢	$19	0xcb1f7d…
11-01 06:24:43	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	56	28¢	$16	0xb0948d…
11-01 01:21:31	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	250	6¢	$15	0xe62555…
11-01 00:02:48	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	233	6¢	$14	0xf2e339…
10-31 08:31:09	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xb5ca61…
10-31 08:25:48	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x975cc1…
10-31 08:22:28	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x86cbbb…
10-31 08:08:49	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x6311ec…
10-31 08:07:07	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x95e885…
10-31 08:02:28	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	69	94¢	$65	0x1dcb03…
10-31 08:01:28	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x62dcdf…
10-31 07:55:28	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x6934e5…
10-31 07:50:09	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x7597d2…
10-31 07:36:28	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x3f5255…
10-31 07:33:07	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xc8907f…
10-31 07:25:27	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x215326…
10-31 07:22:28	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xe46ca2…
10-31 07:21:07	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x5cb873…
10-31 07:13:07	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xaeb37e…
10-31 07:07:48	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x61bed7…
10-31 07:05:27	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xa0e898…
10-31 07:03:06	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xeb241b…
10-31 06:58:27	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x96a88b…
10-31 06:52:27	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	110	98¢	$107	0x06446e…
10-31 06:51:27	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	110	98¢	$108	0x1a8f83…
10-31 06:26:27	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xcb12b7…
10-31 06:18:46	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x0c23b7…
10-31 06:18:06	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xa01622…
10-31 05:16:24	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x821714…
10-31 05:13:24	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xd350b5…
10-31 05:04:24	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xc6c48b…
10-31 04:44:43	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xd98cdb…
10-31 04:36:24	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x69d047…
10-31 04:25:24	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xf99f9e…
10-31 04:22:03	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xbebb02…
10-31 04:19:03	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x4e2b20…
10-31 03:57:03	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x2cc149…
10-31 03:52:43	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xe4324c…
10-31 03:36:03	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xd7072e…
10-31 03:33:04	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x585b18…
10-31 03:24:42	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x67970b…
10-31 03:23:22	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xd90fcf…
10-31 03:10:22	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x1672ce…
10-31 02:57:01	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x8873d8…
10-31 02:55:01	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xce7a67…
10-31 02:51:01	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xf9654f…
10-31 02:48:42	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xee5657…
10-31 02:33:22	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xb2404c…
10-31 02:29:40	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xa48dee…
10-31 02:28:40	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x90a480…
10-31 02:28:00	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x7ae33a…
10-31 01:51:00	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x0ef971…
10-31 01:47:00	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xd75b58…
10-31 01:46:19	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x94db64…
10-31 01:25:19	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x79ea1b…
10-31 00:45:19	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x85d6d6…
10-31 00:44:58	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xed0387…
10-31 00:44:21	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x42d422…
10-31 00:42:39	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x7d8512…
10-31 00:40:58	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x2818ca…
10-31 00:31:00	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xf0cd98…
10-31 00:19:58	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xa94c70…
10-30 22:23:16	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	63	57¢	$36	0xb3ed4a…
10-30 22:21:55	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	25	58¢	$15	0x07c349…
10-30 22:21:36	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	25	58¢	$15	0xdb5e11…
10-30 20:32:10	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	21	50¢	$10	0xc4c615…
10-30 20:30:46	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	BUY	21	51¢	$11	0x9596cb…
10-30 19:30:28	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	12	57¢	$7	0xffe6f3…
10-30 19:30:28	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0x87a1bb…
10-30 19:30:06	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0x472e92…
10-30 19:00:07	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	25	57¢	$14	0x218d2c…
10-30 18:59:06	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	25	58¢	$14	0xe7c03d…