Sophisticated-Octet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.9%

Resolved

Trades

19,679

lifetime

Volume

$76.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-17

last 07-25 17:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

88% — —

Politics

10% 75% +$26

Other

2% 0% $-12

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 90 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ethereum up or down february 23 5am et	40	$511	416	319	+98	open	—	02-23 12:00
bitcoin up or down february 23 5am et	47	$419	588	193	+395	open	—	02-23 12:00
xrp up or down february 23 5am et	34	$324	313	165	+148	open	—	02-23 12:00
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	67	$290	337	377	-40	open	—	02-28 07:34
solana up or down february 23 5am et	27	$257	233	127	+106	open	—	02-23 12:01
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	24	$229	113	125	-11	open	—	03-03 21:52
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	40	$222	151	143	+8	open	—	03-07 14:26
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	121	$146	148	146	+2	open	—	03-07 00:57
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	19	$144	119	121	-2	open	—	03-01 21:45
xrp up or down february 23 6am et	11	$129	89	79	+10	open	—	02-23 12:02
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	12	$124	115	28	+87	open	—	02-21 21:55
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	59	$122	124	105	+19	open	—	04-21 18:01
solana up or down february 23 9am et	11	$121	72	72	+0	open	—	02-23 15:46
bitcoin up or down february 23 9am et	11	$117	84	67	+17	open	—	02-23 15:46
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	157	$116	136	136	+0	open	—	07-07 16:55
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	48	$109	137	136	+1	open	—	04-30 23:41
xrp up or down february 23 9am et	11	$108	88	58	+30	open	—	02-23 15:46
xrp updown 4h 1771851600	11	$104	92	61	+31	open	—	02-23 15:46
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	38	$104	109	109	+0	open	—	04-05 14:48
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	8	$103	58	57	+1	open	—	04-21 22:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	150	$102	108	83	+25	open	—	04-21 20:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	68	$101	156	135	+21	Yes	+$22	05-08 19:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	158	$100	133	133	+0	open	—	05-31 01:39
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	78	$98	83	83	+0	open	—	04-24 16:31
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	59	$98	92	67	+25	open	—	04-11 02:29
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	60	$97	176	176	+0	open	—	04-01 16:11
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	27	$97	91	81	+10	open	—	04-22 03:41
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	30	$96	138	138	+0	open	—	03-31 00:49
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	41	$94	74	74	+0	open	—	04-19 12:46
eth updown 4h 1771851600	11	$94	96	52	+44	open	—	02-23 15:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-25 21:33:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	12	72¢	$8	0xc47699…
07-25 21:33:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	0	72¢	$0	0x60a610…
07-25 21:31:31	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0x579944…
07-25 19:39:39	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	2	34¢	$1	0x72a249…
07-25 17:49:09	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0xc988d1…
07-25 16:52:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	2	30¢	$1	0x602cdd…
07-25 16:51:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	30¢	$0	0x796158…
07-25 16:51:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	0	30¢	$0	0xb407cf…
07-25 16:32:31	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	18	81¢	$15	0x05f6cf…
07-25 16:04:58	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0x96886d…
07-25 14:41:21	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	1	47¢	$0	0x6e01c6…
07-25 14:30:51	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	1	47¢	$0	0xec532b…
07-25 13:54:16	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0x79580c…
07-25 11:29:13	Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x16f071…
07-25 11:08:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0x997e12…
07-25 11:06:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0xb1341b…
07-25 11:06:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x935027…
07-25 11:05:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0xf838c9…
07-25 11:05:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0xc54aee…
07-25 10:56:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0x491591…
07-25 09:46:52	Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	SELL	2	43¢	$1	0xd81475…
07-25 09:05:00	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xedf153…
07-25 08:48:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0xb2d400…
07-25 08:22:55	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	SELL	0	76¢	$0	0x5074ce…
07-25 07:32:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x9e78dd…
07-25 07:30:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0xf610b4…
07-25 07:28:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0xb4def5…
07-25 07:28:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0x8e7ed0…
07-25 05:55:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x47b9a5…
07-25 05:34:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x6ac18c…
07-25 05:29:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xcd48cb…
07-25 05:11:27	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x5b3f92…
07-25 05:01:24	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x97b8f0…
07-25 04:15:13	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x420f10…
07-25 02:31:51	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0xd485ad…
07-25 01:57:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0xa93c88…
07-25 01:31:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0xc2576c…
07-25 01:31:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x5cf8c9…
07-25 01:02:24	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by july 31 2026 20260714210903833	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x65fb0b…
07-24 23:43:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0xb16125…
07-24 23:23:42	will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	No	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0x0320dc…
07-24 23:23:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0xb90c91…
07-24 23:22:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x4a5ad3…
07-24 23:10:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0xc98018…
07-24 23:06:51	will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	No	SELL	3	28¢	$1	0xaa66e9…
07-24 23:01:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x3571b2…
07-24 22:58:48	will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	No	SELL	0	36¢	$0	0x7e5ee1…
07-24 22:58:48	will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	No	SELL	0	36¢	$0	0x43d60e…
07-24 22:58:36	will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	No	SELL	0	35¢	$0	0x6928a3…
07-24 22:58:06	will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x0dcace…
07-24 22:58:04	will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xc90e46…
07-24 22:58:04	will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	No	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0x728f32…
07-24 22:57:58	will the starship for spacex starship flight test 13 achieve a successful splashdown	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x997611…
07-24 22:47:00	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x753e90…
07-24 22:40:15	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0x7e631e…
07-24 22:28:58	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by july 24 2026 20260714210903832	No	BUY	8	31¢	$3	0x05efd5…
07-24 19:42:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x98c387…
07-24 19:42:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xb14e2f…
07-24 19:40:33	will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	9	95¢	$8	0xb3376a…
07-24 15:24:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	3	86¢	$2	0x4f9632…
07-24 15:19:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x12f030…
07-24 14:32:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x27cb4a…
07-24 14:12:34	will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x6d6ea4…
07-24 14:12:21	will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x9d8347…
07-24 14:12:13	will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xe02ab5…
07-24 14:11:33	will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x390dad…
07-24 14:11:33	will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x0c8163…
07-24 13:52:43	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x68635f…
07-24 09:03:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x0a0e7f…
07-24 08:01:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x6980e9…
07-24 08:00:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xe39097…
07-24 07:34:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xf45743…
07-24 07:30:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xc57481…
07-24 07:23:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x61c3dd…
07-24 07:19:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x2b2a0a…
07-24 07:15:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x731ece…
07-23 19:32:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	BUY	2	85¢	$1	0x30d28f…
07-23 19:21:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x42e440…
07-23 19:18:28	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$1	0xfd4fd0…
07-23 16:32:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xa10e72…
07-23 15:31:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	Yes	BUY	3	91¢	$2	0x571475…
07-23 15:28:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	37	15¢	$6	0xcf92b0…
07-23 11:29:54	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0xdcfa18…
07-22 13:52:03	will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0xad789c…
07-22 13:51:58	will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0x888153…
07-22 13:51:07	will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0x8beca1…
07-22 13:51:06	will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0xf9e7e0…
07-22 13:50:43	will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$6	0x6815fe…
07-22 13:38:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	2	76¢	$1	0x40bfa5…
07-22 12:57:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	49	19¢	$9	0x9de95b…
07-21 22:39:46	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xbb1668…
07-21 21:35:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x23c180…
07-21 19:16:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	Yes	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x66ceca…
07-21 19:16:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0x306065…
07-21 19:02:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	Yes	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x0f31f4…
07-21 18:31:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	Yes	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0xc82fb6…
07-21 04:07:10	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	87¢	$25	0x1a09d9…
07-21 02:47:15	mlb wsh col 2026 07 20	Washington Nationals	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xa0c8ac…
07-21 00:46:18	mlb pit nyy 2026 07 20	New York Yankees	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x091ddb…
07-21 00:45:43	mlb pit nyy 2026 07 20	New York Yankees	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x52088f…