Sophisticated-Octet 0xc73b2c…92a6c9 Create alert
bot 4W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$35
Unrealized P&L
-$2
Hit rate
50.4%
Resolved
10,536
Trades
21,791
lifetime
Volume
$78.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$149
30 positions
First seen
2026-02-17
last 11-11 09:14
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 169 days
Categories
Crypto
85% 50% +$168
Politics
11% 54% -$110
Other
3% 53% -$101
Tech
0% 54% -$11
Sports
0% 38% +$19
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
79 active days in 12wk • peak 204 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -58 -$56 98¢ $-57 -$1 10-16 08:27
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +12 $8 86¢ $10 +$2 11-10 19:57
Iran Nuke before 2027? No -10 -$9 97¢ $-10 $0 10-29 17:16
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No +10 $8 84¢ $8 +$0 06-16 17:03
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -8 -$8 99¢ $-8 $0 10-29 17:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027? No +21 $7 30¢ $6 $0 11-06 18:38
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes +6 $5 98¢ $5 +$1 11-06 21:02
Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026? No +13 $8 31¢ $4 -$4 11-10 14:53
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? Yes +24 $4 16¢ $4 $0 10-20 19:13
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No -4 -$4 99¢ $-4 $0 11-06 18:36
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? Yes +4 $4 74¢ $3 $0 11-10 22:47
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8? Yes +8 $1 27¢ $2 +$2 11-11 12:21
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes +18 $5 12¢ $2 -$2 10-18 17:28
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -2 -$2 92¢ $-2 $0 06-17 05:43
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -2 -$2 99¢ $-2 +$0 10-29 17:16
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by November 30? No +2 $1 96¢ $2 +$1 10-09 18:35
Will Iran target Oman by November 30, 2026? Yes +3 $2 69¢ $2 +$0 11-10 15:31
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? Yes +3 $1 64¢ $2 +$0 11-08 06:33
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +2 $2 98¢ $2 +$0 11-06 21:10
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +2 $2 76¢ $1 $0 10-16 18:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027? Yes +3 $1 42¢ $1 $0 11-10 21:08
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -1 -$1 97¢ $-1 $0 05-02 03:29
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +1 -$2 96¢ $1 +$3 10-02 01:20
Will Iran target Oman by December 31, 2026? Yes +2 $1 76¢ $1 +$0 11-10 14:58
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No +2 $1 72¢ $1 +$0 11-06 18:37
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? Yes +8 $1 14¢ $1 $0 11-11 08:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? Yes +4 $1 26¢ $1 $0 11-06 18:46
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +6 $1 15¢ $1 $0 11-10 22:21
Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026? Yes +6 $1 15¢ $1 $0 11-11 06:28
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? Yes +4 $1 16¢ $1 -$1 11-10 00:06