Sophisticated-Octet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.9%

Resolved

Trades

20,150

lifetime

Volume

$77.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-17

last 08-18 17:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

87% — —

Politics

10% 75% +$26

Other

3% 0% $-12

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 90 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ethereum up or down february 23 5am et	40	$511	416	319	+98	open	—	02-23 12:00
bitcoin up or down february 23 5am et	47	$419	588	193	+395	open	—	02-23 12:00
xrp up or down february 23 5am et	34	$324	313	165	+148	open	—	02-23 12:00
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	67	$290	337	377	-40	open	—	02-28 07:34
solana up or down february 23 5am et	27	$257	233	127	+106	open	—	02-23 12:01
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	24	$229	113	125	-11	open	—	03-03 21:52
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	40	$222	151	143	+8	open	—	03-07 14:26
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	121	$146	148	146	+2	open	—	03-07 00:57
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	19	$144	119	121	-2	open	—	03-01 21:45
xrp up or down february 23 6am et	11	$129	89	79	+10	open	—	02-23 12:02
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	12	$124	115	28	+87	open	—	02-21 21:55
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	59	$122	124	105	+19	open	—	04-21 18:01
solana up or down february 23 9am et	11	$121	72	72	+0	open	—	02-23 15:46
bitcoin up or down february 23 9am et	11	$117	84	67	+17	open	—	02-23 15:46
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	157	$116	136	136	+0	open	—	07-07 16:55
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	48	$109	137	136	+1	open	—	04-30 23:41
xrp up or down february 23 9am et	11	$108	88	58	+30	open	—	02-23 15:46
xrp updown 4h 1771851600	11	$104	92	61	+31	open	—	02-23 15:46
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	38	$104	109	109	+0	open	—	04-05 14:48
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	8	$103	58	57	+1	open	—	04-21 22:33
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	150	$102	108	83	+25	open	—	04-21 20:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	68	$101	156	135	+21	Yes	+$22	05-08 19:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	158	$100	133	133	+0	open	—	05-31 01:39
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	78	$98	83	83	+0	open	—	04-24 16:31
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	59	$98	92	67	+25	open	—	04-11 02:29
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	60	$97	176	176	+0	open	—	04-01 16:11
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	27	$97	91	81	+10	open	—	04-22 03:41
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	30	$96	138	138	+0	open	—	03-31 00:49
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	41	$94	74	74	+0	open	—	04-19 12:46
eth updown 4h 1771851600	11	$94	96	52	+44	open	—	02-23 15:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-18 22:10:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xe6245f…
08-18 21:36:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x6a45e3…
08-18 19:12:49	will iran target a arab country on august 18 2026 20260801004719135	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0xd2276e…
08-18 19:12:07	will iran target a arab country on august 18 2026 20260801004719135	Yes	SELL	1	49¢	$1	0x2a653f…
08-18 19:06:54	will iran target a arab country on august 18 2026 20260801004719135	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x8bdda7…
08-18 17:54:28	will iran target a arab country on august 18 2026 20260801004719135	Yes	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0x870d11…
08-18 17:41:07	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x59cfb0…
08-18 16:44:15	will iran target a arab country on august 18 2026 20260801004719135	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x3df952…
08-18 16:10:33	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553	No	SELL	1	45¢	$0	0xccbbf9…
08-18 16:09:30	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553	No	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0xbeabb7…
08-18 15:28:48	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	SELL	1	56¢	$1	0x76185f…
08-18 15:28:28	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553	No	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0xa5ef84…
08-18 15:07:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0xa902d2…
08-18 15:05:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xb900e0…
08-18 14:34:37	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553	No	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0xd158a1…
08-18 05:12:34	will iran target a arab country on august 17 2026 20260801004719134	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x6a3e5b…
08-18 03:47:01	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0xa9994e…
08-18 03:09:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0xbaa6da…
08-18 01:06:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	25¢	$0	0xb540c1…
08-17 19:53:18	will iran target a arab country on august 17 2026 20260801004719134	Yes	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xd04390…
08-17 19:44:12	will iran target a arab country on august 17 2026 20260801004719134	Yes	SELL	3	75¢	$2	0xacefff…
08-17 19:18:16	will iran target a arab country on august 17 2026 20260801004719134	Yes	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xd74879…
08-17 19:15:31	will iran target a arab country on august 17 2026 20260801004719134	Yes	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x2b5e92…
08-17 19:06:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	SELL	2	76¢	$2	0x140f30…
08-17 18:49:13	iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	SELL	3	55¢	$1	0x613a81…
08-17 17:34:54	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	33¢	$0	0xc54149…
08-17 16:02:04	btc updown 4h 1786982400	Down	SELL	0	51¢	$0	0xf1f4f5…
08-17 16:01:55	btc updown 4h 1786982400	Down	SELL	0	51¢	$0	0x153c66…
08-17 16:01:07	btc updown 4h 1786982400	Down	SELL	1	50¢	$0	0x15d7d0…
08-17 16:01:04	btc updown 4h 1786982400	Down	SELL	0	52¢	$0	0x58a352…
08-17 16:00:04	btc updown 4h 1786982400	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x2b2c0a…
08-17 15:29:58	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0x3fa75f…
08-17 10:38:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0x82f8e9…
08-17 10:30:07	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0x3e950e…
08-17 07:52:16	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	No	SELL	0	73¢	$0	0x96b2cf…
08-16 22:38:34	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x1cda26…
08-16 19:55:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x6610ca…
08-16 15:27:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xed1188…
08-16 13:37:40	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0x5f14b9…
08-16 05:18:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0xa91ca4…
08-15 17:40:03	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	2	10¢	$0	0x8ec516…
08-15 15:43:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x59d428…
08-15 15:06:24	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	0	18¢	$0	0xa9d1c3…
08-15 14:42:12	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x2a8f83…
08-15 14:04:42	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	No	SELL	0	69¢	$0	0x1a4483…
08-15 14:04:39	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0xb54b8c…
08-15 13:43:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0x607049…
08-15 13:35:45	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	No	SELL	0	71¢	$0	0xc16597…
08-15 13:35:43	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	No	SELL	0	71¢	$0	0x20de18…
08-15 13:14:01	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	Yes	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x5794f4…
08-15 11:13:07	another gta vi trailer released by august 31 20260629164610050	No	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0x69ee40…
08-15 11:05:00	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0xe495e0…
08-15 07:12:15	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x4422cb…
08-15 02:54:25	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x5a4318…
08-15 02:51:01	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x7501a7…
08-15 02:51:00	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x50f4ed…
08-15 02:50:57	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0xb289c6…
08-15 02:50:55	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0xbbd284…
08-15 02:50:55	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0x2f6302…
08-15 02:50:54	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0x9fa33a…
08-15 02:28:45	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x51f3fc…
08-14 21:09:39	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x2fbb41…
08-14 20:52:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	9¢	$0	0x8e53ba…
08-14 20:52:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x49c5b9…
08-14 20:52:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x41e807…
08-14 20:52:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x4d7b12…
08-14 20:45:36	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	10¢	$0	0x18a1d9…
08-14 20:45:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0x031ed5…
08-14 20:22:24	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	3	22¢	$1	0x1155c0…
08-14 13:46:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0x800f3a…
08-14 11:15:09	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0x094057…
08-14 10:24:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0xff05d5…
08-14 10:15:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0xbdf1d2…
08-14 10:14:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0xa9d9f3…
08-14 04:22:42	will daylight savings time become permanent in the us in 2026 20260715155938043	No	SELL	0	71¢	$0	0x45f579…
08-14 02:24:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x9150a1…
08-13 23:36:39	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0x747d67…
08-13 23:36:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x3052ac…
08-13 23:35:51	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x542a8d…
08-13 23:35:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0x39099a…
08-13 22:25:57	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x2eb2e3…
08-13 22:25:49	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x6921f1…
08-13 18:30:48	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0x82989c…
08-13 18:24:52	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	49¢	$0	0xb14573…
08-13 18:17:49	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	1	48¢	$0	0x7d427e…
08-13 18:13:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	0	15¢	$0	0x7c7e0f…
08-13 18:10:24	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	SELL	1	15¢	$0	0xe054da…
08-13 17:55:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0xb1179c…
08-13 16:00:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0xd27b3d…
08-13 15:57:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	0	2¢	$0	0x8a4275…
08-13 15:55:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	Yes	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x6e06f3…
08-13 15:37:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x3a54a3…
08-13 15:15:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	6	2¢	$0	0xcb3ff5…
08-13 02:49:57	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0xd7251d…
08-13 02:49:13	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0xbcff5e…
08-13 02:48:43	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0x28b9fe…
08-13 02:29:55	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0xff4352…
08-13 02:19:00	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x50b303…
08-13 00:58:12	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	60¢	$0	0xad238a…
08-13 00:30:58	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	2	71¢	$2	0xcc1dc3…