Realized P&L
-$26
Unrealized P&L
+$216
Hit rate
1.7%
Resolved
2
Trades
9,682
lifetime
Volume
$106.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$11
Open exposure
$2.43K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-29
last 06-30 12:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Politics
67% 100% +$17
Other
18% 0% $-43
Tech
12%
Crypto
3%
Sports
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
63 active days in 12wk • peak 846 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +494 $211 66¢ $326 +$115 06-25 20:11
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No +284 $146 100¢ $283 +$137 06-18 19:42
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No +256 $197 100¢ $255 +$58 06-19 09:41
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +454 $266 34¢ $155 $-111 06-26 02:40
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No +99 $79 100¢ $99 +$20 06-02 10:10
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes +671 $307 14¢ $92 $-215 06-30 14:18
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No +93 $10 99¢ $92 +$82 06-26 17:34
Fed rate hike in 2026? No +187 $93 48¢ $89 $-4 06-27 18:37
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +115 $49 70¢ $81 +$32 06-19 20:56
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No -90 $-116 86¢ $-77 +$39 06-30 10:34
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +89 $68 84¢ $74 +$7 06-15 19:28
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No +68 $41 100¢ $67 +$26 06-28 09:10
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No +63 $43 100¢ $63 +$20 06-14 15:37
Iran leadership change by June 30? No +57 $53 100¢ $57 +$4 06-08 10:01
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No +57 $40 99¢ $57 +$17 06-14 18:17
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No -62 $-49 80¢ $-50 $-1 06-21 11:42
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes +66 $43 76¢ $50 +$7 06-26 00:45
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +55 $48 90¢ $50 +$2 06-08 07:22
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +114 $61 41¢ $47 $-14 06-17 13:40
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +57 $28 74¢ $43 +$15 06-20 12:40
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +136 $73 30¢ $40 $-33 06-19 17:59
AI bubble burst in 2026? No -47 $-37 81¢ $-38 $-1 06-11 17:22
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +49 $39 74¢ $36 $-3 06-27 22:38
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes -45 $-41 76¢ $-35 +$6 06-25 12:38
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +59 $32 59¢ $35 +$2 06-16 20:18
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? No +36 $29 90¢ $32 +$3 06-30 15:16
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +36 $29 86¢ $31 +$3 06-13 16:36
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +54 $30 52¢ $28 $-1 06-24 14:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +29 $23 86¢ $25 +$3 06-14 21:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +21 $17 99¢ $21 +$4 06-26 07:28