Realized P&L
-$26
Unrealized P&L
+$242
Hit rate
1.7%
Resolved
2
Trades
13,562
lifetime
Volume
$142.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$1.60K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-29
last 07-21 18:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 2 days
Categories
Politics
64% 100% +$17
Other
20% 0% $-43
Tech
13%
Crypto
3%
Sports
0%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 887 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +494 $211 99¢ $488 +$277 07-11 22:11
Will XRP dip to $1.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes +109 $70 86¢ $93 +$23 07-05 09:52
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +115 $49 78¢ $90 +$41 06-19 20:56
Fed rate hike in 2026? No +187 $93 40¢ $74 $-19 06-27 18:37
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +89 $68 74¢ $65 $-2 06-15 19:28
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No -62 $-49 86¢ $-54 $-5 06-21 11:42
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +55 $48 90¢ $49 +$1 06-08 07:22
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +57 $28 80¢ $46 +$18 06-20 12:40
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Yes -45 $-41 97¢ $-44 $-3 06-25 12:38
Will XRP dip to $1.00 by December 31, 2026? No +297 $85 15¢ $43 $-42 07-07 07:36
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes +66 $43 64¢ $42 $-1 06-26 00:45
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +59 $32 68¢ $40 +$7 06-16 20:18
AI bubble burst in 2026? No -47 $-37 84¢ $-40 $-2 06-11 17:22
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +54 $42 72¢ $39 $-4 07-17 16:05
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +114 $61 32¢ $37 $-24 06-17 13:40
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes +43 $34 86¢ $37 +$2 07-01 19:17
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +54 $30 60¢ $33 +$3 06-24 14:43
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +59 $34 55¢ $32 $-2 07-21 01:37
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No +36 $29 88¢ $32 +$3 06-13 16:36
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +136 $73 22¢ $29 $-44 06-19 17:59
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +89 $23 26¢ $24 +$1 06-25 20:39
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No +65 $19 36¢ $23 +$5 06-24 02:56
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +81 $21 29¢ $23 +$2 07-20 13:56
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +31 $14 70¢ $22 +$8 06-19 02:34
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +117 $21 18¢ $21 $-0 07-21 18:55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No -23 $-11 82¢ $-19 $-8 06-24 00:37
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +28 $13 65¢ $18 +$5 05-29 15:54
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +22 $16 78¢ $17 +$2 06-20 10:12
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes +37 $11 46¢ $17 +$6 07-21 15:15
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +34 $19 42¢ $14 $-5 06-22 21:59